[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

WMC not on board?

I'm out.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

NAVGEM is on board.

 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

GFS para run even better to 180

 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

The control run has the same idea anyway...

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Extraordinary extended JMA.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Regardless of how good or not the 18z GFS is nothing will be resolved tonight following that ECM run. 

It's supported closely by NAVGEM and somewhat though less so by ICON.

Could be a fundamental change or maybe not.

Just have to wait and see.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

168 mean

 

192

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

NAVGEM operational quite close to the ECM

So it certainly has support and will have support in the ECM ensembles as well.

[Model banter returns]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm has the dreaded hump of doom over the north sea. This stops the cold uppers in their tracks to our east. This has happened so many times in the last 15 years. Why? 

Mountains.

[Model banter returns]

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I wouldn't worry about the ECM operational run. We'll see were it sits in the ensemble suite. At the same time it can't be ignored. 

If you are worried about it you'll just have to sleep on it until the morning.

Most models have us in a good place for a major pattern change this evening. 

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Beautiful 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

JMA 108

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

18z looks a marginal improvement so far for prospects.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, icykev said:

Ps

What is the best model in your honest opinion? Thanks

WMC Moscow is a must every day

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

seems to be stuck on 120

18z only runs to 120

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I can never understand why media weather are so keenly quoted here in the model thread when the reality is you have the charts right in front of you. Don't need the BBC or anyone else as a source...

#justsayin     #thereisnohashtag

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

ICON probably coming more in line with the rest of the Euro models which is a further positive on a day of upgrades.

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

GFS same, nite.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

UKMO not following the ECM unfortunately. Takes LP with the jet straight through the GIN corridor. Not enough of an angle for a diving low.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I think we are firmly on course here and the GFS transition is underway as of this evening. It all depends on the modelling of the jet and that low pressure coming out of North America between 144 and 168. I'll stick with ECM consistency but that JMA run is similarly awesome. And there is a lot of other evidence a corner has finally been turned in the long hunt for a substantial pattern change.

All good as of now.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

NAVGEM more or less in line with the ECM again. Good jet stream profile, only going one way.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

 

Tasty evolution on tonight's JMA 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Quite snowy for Ireland at least at 168 with a stalling front. Dryer elsewhere but cold.

 

Need this to evolve further, ECM on it's own a little bit at the moment. UKMO closest.