The Eagle
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This is the most exciting winter since last year in my considered opinion.
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Inspiring ECM this evening by day 10...
...for an early Spring
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ECM positive at day 9 but progresses a common garden toppler on day 10
Be interesting to see to what extent we can get to something colder and more sustainable over a period of a few days rather than just 24 hours and a good frost.
Trend is much better though than a few days a go.
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Well at least it's something! *sigh*
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36 minutes ago, mb018538 said:Terrible runs this morning.
And the weather?
Sorry, it was an open goal I couldn't resist...
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Across the board is pretty hopeless alright.
How not busy this thread is for the time of year says it all really.
My hopes are pinned on changes emerging in the second half of the month running in to February.
Mid month mean GFS
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All the models are in default zonal mode with the pattern. The forecast accuracy stretches out further in these situations so yeah, very little positive to go on for coldies.
Going to take something special to break this down and the way the strat temperature profile is at the moment it looks like the PV will continue spinning like a washing machine on full blast for most if not all of this month. People are saying the fist half of January as a write off, looks longer than that to be honest.
I'm always glass half full even now so hopefully something happens and we get a quick flip on an important signal in the next couple of weeks.
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On 19/03/2019 at 12:17, Paul said:
A good idea ruined by bad implementation I think.
I'm not sure I follow the argument.
You have three agencies now naming the storms - UK, Ireland, Netherlands (new for this year).
Storms affect each country differently or not at all.
I would suggest your dispute is best aimed at the UK media. "90 MPH KILL STORM *NAME* ON THE WAY"
I like the naming system personally. It makes a lot of sense and I think it works well even if warning systems are different.
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Snowline at around 900 - 1,000 meters ASL in southwest corner of Ireland
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Not the best at 168 hrs on that evidence for UKMO.
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
When do the UKMO charts update there?
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1 minute ago, swfc said:
EC looks ok at day ten altho imo a transient easterly.That subject to change either way
Northerly express probably setting up post 240 hrs but that's out in la la land.
A lot of water to go under bridge.
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Everyone remain calm!
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I think Atlantic coastal counties may get red warnings, yellow for everywhere else. Some eastern counties maybe no warning at all.
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Yes Steve. Irish Met and UK Met monitoring the situation with the NHC daily now. Clearly the "way out west" solution is not thought to fly with them at the moment.
This could yet be an event. Nothing certain yet.
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NAVGEM/GEM also have impact potential for Ireland at least, if not the UK.
I dunno I think this will be interesting yet.
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Take your pick...
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Northerly incursion that early are a waste anyway
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Daily conference calls between Irish Met, UK Met and NHC underway regarding Lorenzo.
A lot of uncertainty still over the track unlikely to be resolved today. Huge split in potential outcomes.
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Probabilities creeping up. Lorenzo has also increase to Cat 5 status.
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Lorenzo is now a major Cat 5 hurricane with wind speeds above 155 mph.
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Lorenzo could conceivably hit Cat 5 status within the next 12 hours.
This mornings model runs will be important for Ireland and the UK later on. There is no clarity yet really on the track of the system in to the mid latitude and how it taps the jet stream.
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Lorenzo latest track. Slightly west of earlier but will fluctuate over coming days.
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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by The Eagle
Video of snow in west of Ireland by joujoujou, boards.ie. There was 10cm at Knock airport overnight.
Snow dying out now or returning to sleet and rain across the country.