[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Messy at 120 just about sums it up. Screams uncertainty to be honest at that point.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

 

UKMO 96. Nice Artic high there though...

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

I don't think it's over just yet. NAVGEM and icon both not too bad at 6z. UKMO has a route to cold at 144.

You never know, maybe there is just enough time for another big twist?

 

 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Today 12z is going to be the equivalent of sitting down to watch the weather mode Royal Rumble..!

Anyway ECM mean @144 backs the op-

So are T120 we are totally in no mans land with a solution..

Is that a thinly disguised apology for icon? 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

ECM 144 mean

Not the best. I'll give it to the 12z before calling it though. 

[Model banter returns]

1 minute ago, snowblind said:

Ok, I'm going to do some mega straw clutching here. Didn't I read somewhere that the EC op runs at a higher resolution than the other models? And that this sometimes causes it issues with seeing things that, in reality, just won't be there. If that's the case then it should be at the top of its ensembles, if not a mild outlier from day four. Once it gets more actual observational data fed in it should begin to correct itself. So we should see corrections this evening and tomorrow so that it should be fully back onboard by Monday.  Or have I just started another conspiracy theory?

[Model banter returns]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

i would always put my money on UKMET at 96.

 

 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

We’re never going to hear the end of it from ICON lovers of by pure luck it has managed to call this one

And the summer heatwave, and the two separate easterlies last Spring. All luck?

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Because it’s not very good. 

 

Why is it not very good?

 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Just now, Banbury said:

Can someone tell me 'if' ICON is so  good why do people say " the big 3" 

I think because it is only live little over a year. Some stuck in their ways? It's just as fallible as any of "the big 3" but it's a really good model that needs more attention than it gets here.  

 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Just now, smith25 said:

I've seen this drama happen a few times with the models flip flopping just before a cold spell and usually over a weekend.  This drama wont stop until late sunday and i bet things will be much better for coldies then... Try not to panic!

 

Maybe. UKMO is not bad for example. I can see how we get deep cold from 144. The rest...

We need a small miracle today.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Just now, Surrey said:

Just a note.. ICON was the worst performing short range model last year I have been told... 

By who?

Have you the stats?

It all must be a mirage. 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

But what happens if the ICON is wrong and then starts to go the other way over the weekend? 

ICON has been showing the same for the last 4 runs. If everyone wants to ignore it what can you do? This despite it's proven accuracy at good range...go figure.

Anyhow i'm disappointed but there will be more opportunities. 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Just now, Mucka said:

Well if it does turn out to be right then I will take more notice of it in future but we don't know whether it is or not yet.

The models often flip flop on these knife edge situations and Easterlies are notorious for failing once they get  inside the 120/144 range.

There are plenty of twists and turns to come yet. 

No reason we shouldn't get a 2nd or even 3rd bite at the cherry int his set up if needed.

I don't doubt we will get another bite but the first attempt is not going to happen realistically now. It will take at least another phase in my opinion. 

I'm optimistic that we will get an easterly in the next couple of weeks.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

 

 

ICON

 

ECM

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Just now, Mucka said:

Can I borrow your time machine?

I'm just saying, it's going to be proved most accurate again and at decent range. 

I'm happy about that, not about the outcome for cold. 

2nd best model after the ECM for me.

Disappointed for everyone looking for a quick route to severe cold though.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

ICON was right

Anyone want to slag it off now?

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

 UKMO at 120hrs out. SNOWFEST. 

It's really not.

 

It's cold, no doubt though.

 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

GFS para goes...with a collapse and looks like the control run...

So that has backed away from cold on the 00z run towards, looks similar to the GEM.

Para very like icon in the medium term. Very disappointing. 

 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Can’t believe what I’m reading! These runs are as good as it gets for this nation. 

I think model fatigue is getting the better of some people. All models are agreeing on cold, how severe it gets is the question. 

The GFS op in cuckoo land does and a few ensemble members. The UKMO may or may not go our way. ICON is dreadful and it sets alarm bells off straight away for me.

1 minute ago, AnthonyMcquade7 said:

What time is the ECM out thanks

6 am starts rolling.

 

We NEED a good ECM.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Just now, CreweCold said:

The GEFS raise the stakes. Its either brutal cold or something much more unpalatable. Quite the dichotomy. 

You'll have seen ICON get slagged off this morning for no reason other than what it shows.

Some might not be laughing soon enough...

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Control run illustrates how fragile things are.

Not good overall so far on the models. Subjective because it's in comparison to yesterday evening. Need a good ECM.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

So your ignoring the updated meto forecasts and the models they use this morning then, and going for the icon outcome. Good luck

No one is ignoring anything. I think ICON is an excellent model and discarding it because it does not show what you want is foolish to say the least!

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yeah it won't be pretty, certainly not impossible though, we've seen it before go both ways!

We have a -ve west based NAO setting up which will probably help to shunt the whole lot SE/S again at some point BUT I think there won't be a huge source of cold air and likely the pattern locks into  marginal set-up where we just have to hope a LP swings around the outside flow before too much of whatever cold air is in there washes and moderates out. Indeed that could easily sit there for 7-10 days in just such a solution...

I agree completely.

I remember when ICON first came out and it literally went with both easterlies in Spring when every other model abandoned the easterly or never progged it...it was 100% consistent. That's the concern. 

But it's in a minority of one right now so let's see what happens. We need good runs this morning.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

If ICON has this nailed vs everyone else like last Feb/March it's going to be a very sorry picture