The Eagle
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Posts posted by The Eagle
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The ensemble for the period of interest on this GFS run seem to be 1 or 2c colder over all than the previous run.
Not the best operational run but doesn't tell the full story.
What would really help is more cross model convergence later today
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ICON continues to be consistent this morning. Minor intra run fluctuations as normal but these are inconsequential really. Been far better than the rest for persistency. Whether it's ball park in the end remains to be seen but based on previous 'events' I have high confidence it won't be far away. We shall see.
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11 minutes ago, goosey007 said:
if ECM is correct I will bow to its greatness!!
Right so, I have you booked in for worship at 6:50 pm this evening.
Anyone else?
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10 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:
This could be a little bit of a face palm moment… if?!
Tweet's 100% correct based on that suite...tbf
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ICON is pretty consistent run to run at this stage. Not very encouraging.
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4 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:
Really good to see a few more stamps with the low south of the uk on Xmas day, happy to see the mogreps starting to trend colder. Hear all the time about how highly rated they are.
Remember that's max temperature as well.
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Pity we couldn't have the ECM really add to a wave of convergence this evening which keeps us all guessing.
It has moved in the right direction but not enough and I'll be hoping for better tomorrow.
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I declare the UKMO the world's foremost model on net weather (until 4am tomorrow morning when NAVGEM regains the coveted title)
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You can't just "bin" something because it does not show what you want it to show.
It's as legitimate data as anything else and has to be taken in to account clearly.
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Just now, TSNWK said:
You know the drill!
Nah, I genuinely expected the explosion of love, affection and respect for the model evident yesterday would extend beyond 9am...
I was wrong...
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5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Icon to be released by 15.00.
I wonder why we've heard nothing about ICON this morning? There's a nice 6.00z run there to view out to 120 hrs
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24 minutes ago, Smartie said:
Jeez, nobody has said that, all I've seen is people commenting on what it shows!
To be serious I think it's a valid point. Some see what they want to see and ignore signs that are not so favorable.
It just leads to greater disappointment when they do that because it skews expectations.
Whereas if you stay grounded by taking all the data available in the round you can avoid the stages of grief more easily.
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Poor enough ECM. It's not so much the run itself which is not terrible but it's the trend to shove everything further north with each run which is a bit disappointing.
Ah well. More chopping and changing to come yet though.
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The ECM is not atrocious. It just wets the bed at day 6. Recovers a bit but it's a push back and there are some not good signals in the northern hemisphere SLP profile before that.
Obviously all this will change again in the following runs so don't worry about it too much.
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2 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:
Slack North Easterly, Atlantic trying to push in. Battle ground scenario
If you live in Scotland or NI maybe...
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As expected. Could be an outlier.
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2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
192 should be fine
It won't be. Atlantic coming in on this run almost certainly.
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3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
Very happy with the gem at 126, it's more consistent from its 12z run too, GFS and ukmo flapping around much more at 144.
I think ECM will be much more like the gem later on
It's certainly much better in terms of potential propagation west of the truly cold airmass over Scandinavia. Only to 126 so could fall apart of course! The more landmass the origin travels over the better.
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
oh right - crossed wires then, i thought it was just about getting a tonking for me, your more than likely gonna be disappointed if you set your goal to have a load of snow on a specific day when we start off on here in november every year.
The only disappointment on the models is how mixed the airmass is getting as a result of not travelling mostly over land...would love to see those sub -8's getting in.
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
its a corker still - does it matter when the cold and snow blasts the South? as long as it does at some point.
Yes my focus is Christmas Day
It's ok but this evolution is very fragile so i'd urge super caution run by run.
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Don't think anyone can be surprised at the GFS. An increasing percentage of the ensemble suites have been going this way, ballooning the LP to our west and ultimately forcing events further north, in recent runs. UKMO is ok but it doesn't cover the GFS for me, this trend was visible.
Big ECM run coming.
It will still work out ok for northern UK and most of Ireland.
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Red extended to County Clare.
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Warnings & Advisories - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service
WWW.MET.IEMet Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.
Here are those warnings. Mean speed in excess of 80km/h, gusts expected in excess of 130km/h in the southwest.
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
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