MP-R

Indeed, broadly speaking it's not been unusual in that the weather has come from the Atlantic, but it's been of unusual strength since Christmas and the conditions delivered wouldn't be out of place in November. I have a feeling that going forward, as long as the area of high pressure at the end of the week doesn't squeeze one last visit to the mainland EU before January 31st, and it slight into the Atlantic, that future such onslaughts will come from a more standard westerly direction if not northwesterly, which would be well timed!

Currently experiencing the five minutes of exciting weather here. Torrential rain, squally winds and hailstones mixed in.

Just hope a 2007 summer doesn't follow. I think I'd actually start looking for residence abroad if that happened...

This was the same area of low pressure that was going to help prop up a ridge of high pressure over NW Europe. Without that, it just sinks back into Europe.

Very heavy rain for a time this evening and lots of surface water flooding driving between meetings. Impressive stuff for January!

Broken cloud with some sunny intervals and calm after gusty winds overnight, when the temperature was actually highest.

Oh look, the M4!

Indeed. The most interesting weathe came in the first week of December. Some lovely frosty sunny days then strong winds and a thunderstorm on the 8th. Since mid December though it’s really been a yawn fest!

Indeed, we just need some more consistent support. Even if a block is not as strong as that, it would do. Funny you should mention 1998, around the same time, January 1998 experienced a cold block. Looking back over the years, certainly between the mid 1990s and 2008, the final third of January was a blocky time of year, with slight variations exactly on where high pressure set up. Even the most Atlantic of winters like 2000 and 2007 featured such. Fingers crossed for further runs showing high pressure establishment. Anything to break the current mundanity.

Certainly not unusual for mid Jan but wow - 1048mb!! At this stage - just nice to look at. Until then though, looks like a lot of water to pass under the bridge (or over it depending on rainfall intensity...)

I’ve noticed this too, although it is resulting in night temperatures cooling more than perhaps otherwise. Minimum of 4.9C last night so still well above average but no sign of the 12C / 10C days yet.

All we’re missing is the springtime winter spell. Late March is normally the turning point to spring. I’ve yet to witness a proper winter spell that late.

Cloudy and breezy with some sunny intervals, mild too at 8C. Later's rain looks quite heavy but also brief, only last an hour or two if the current speed maintains.

I would too. For want of a better way of putting it, the PV is doing pretty well to maintain the strength it is even now. Fingers crossed for later in the month as you say. There is of course a reason why the 21st Jan - 10th Feb is the coldest part of the winter. To your second point, agreed. I'll never join that crew at this stage in the 'winter'. I always have hope. Heck even January 2008 brought a short lived snowfall here within an active Atlantic period on 11th January. Jan 2007 brought the northerly on the 23rd-25th. Jan 2015 brought snow showers off a straight westerly before the colder half of the month even began... The supercharged PV could actually work in our favour if only the Euro high wasn't taking up its premature summer residence. Imagine what a decent Pm outbreak would be like now.

That's my point - it's not. It's very depressing at the moment, but we are unfortunately stuck in a milder than normal pattern at an unfavourable time of year. There have been a lot of silly comments (not yours) on the last few pages but I think we can safely disregard 10C 850hPas and 16/17C in NE Scotland etc as normal. On a merrier note, it looks relatively shortlived, with a return to more normal temperatures later in the week (earlier than that in the north). Sadly though, no immediate end in sight to the overall Atlantic dross.

On Tuesday we'll be in December 2015 territory, but yes, this is of course 'normal'....

Make the most of it if you can. It's not often that that's the case.

Haha you really need to get it out of your head that the weather was refurbished in time for the new millennium. The coldest January’s and January weather I’ve experienced have been post 2000. If you really want to find the closest thing to a switch flick, compare the 90s with the 80s!

Interesting! Only thing I’d say is the leaves are a very dark almost purply red colour, when the do come out. What you refer to however I’ve also seen around quite a lot, and they are indeed beautiful!

There’s a cherry blossom in the car park at my gym that has been sprouting since early November, before there was any actual cold to speak of lol.

Crumbs of comfort from the 18Z GFS? Thursday's low much less powerful. High pressure really trying to dominate more during the following week. A pub run style northwesterly at 384hrs. Best of a still-not-ideal bunch.

Indeed, essentially as I've said. 'Near' normal, and certainly a welcome change from December. Had a minimum of -5.9C here on the 20th, and maximum of 14.0C only four days later. Monthly average was a still above par 05.3C overall.

Actually, to be fair, looking back it seemed to be a southern UK thing. Down here the first week was mainly cold and frosty, a warm up from the 07th, then a northwesterly that brought some light snow on the 13th, another brief warm up, then cold and frosty from the 16th until the 27th when the Atlantic broke through. The month actually came in below average here, sandwiched between a mild December and February. I think the difference with January 2016 was that the temperatures returned to near normal after the horrific November and December. It at least felt like January and indeed between the 13th and 20th was actually cold. Still a poor winter month overall but a welcome change from December. A few days ago I was saying how at least it's looking dry down here, but I'm wondering if actually it could turn quite wet at times this week with secondary lows diving south in front of the UK.

2017 and 2019 brought dry cold though so weren’t too bad from a model viewing point of view. It wasn’t long into 2016 that the midmonth cold spell came into view either. Other winters had also already bagged at least one or two cold or even seasonal spells so the level of desperation wasn’t there. Only 2013/14 comes close to the outlook devoid of anything januaryesque at this point.

Do as you like knocker. I'm knocking the weather, not you.