MP-R

Yes! It felt like winter had gone on for ages at the start of November... It’s the low sunshine amounts that have got to me most I think.

Indeed! Anything to stop the relentless rain. A January 2003 is the kind of thing I'd expect in January - cold spell, followed by Atlantic breakthrough, followed by cold again in the final week. Yes please. All much too far out though at the moment as FI really does depend on what happens in the Christmas week.

A sudden change from very wet and mild to drier and much colder? I certainly hope so, and some promising signs. I remember the change from Christmas/NY flooding in December 2002 to frozen flooded fields and snow showers in early January 2003. A progression like the below would do nicely! We're half way there here, but those heights over Spain need to shove it as it risks a SWerly flow over the UK. Still too knife edge for my liking but good to see cold appearing to the NE. In the shorter term, I'm just praying for cold enough conditions for decent snow in the Alps next week!

Chilly, grey and misty after a foggy start. A little more seasonal than of late but to be honest I'm craving sunshine, despite the month's sunshine figures thus far. 5C

Led to a very blocked month in all, a gradual waning of cold and interest. To be honest, despite his constant harping on about the 'good old days' only NYD 1997 and 1995 looks interesting from a synoptic perspective, the rest were full on autumnal Atlantic mode!

Yes it's an incredibly tiresome pattern we're in at the moment! Fingers crossed for a change around NY.

Agreed jethro! Even 2006 and 2007 brought us some of that!

Stunning views Mr Frost! Beautiful scenery and skyscapes.

Done well to miss all the showers since first thing this morning. Always seems to happen when the wind veers southwesterly. May get some in the next few hours though.

Bank! Wouldn't be too dissimilar to the start of January last year which also featured a strong anticyclone overhead during the first week (indeed I recorded my highest ever pressure reading). Anything to start some sort of drying out process... Not that the CFS should be given much attention, but quite a few more recent runs have hinted at high pressure to close the month and start January - no consensus on where, other than close to the UK.

Yes this year will have been one of the more forgettable years. Conversely, perhaps memorable for the wrong reasons. What does stand out however here is: 31st Jan / 01st Feb - heavy snowfall. The snowfall itself wasn't unusual, but rather the fact only the S & SW were the sweet spot. 14th-28th Feb - early spring and gorgeous weather Easter - beautifully sunny and warm throughout First 2/3 of June - unusually cold, dull and wet 22nd September onwards - largely atrocious

Right now I really wouldn’t mind a lengthy dry spell. 2019 is going to end up being a wet year overall despite a dry Jan/Feb and midsummer. Either a cold high or a mild high. I’m really not bothered just to get out if this disgusting pattern we’ve been in since mid September!

Very sudden squally sleet downpour just moved through. Security light went on and off a few times.

Looks highly possible if the output doesn't change. Has only happened in 2000, 2006 and 2012 here since the turn of the century, and September 2006 was only just over 100mm.

Keep having to remind myself it's December looking at the output. This chart below almost looks like a poor summer chart for the UK. Add 5C to the 850hpa's and it could be July - heat building over Spain. The extent of warmth moving up over inland Europe as well is quite notable for the time of year. Is it conceivable that the increasingly weak Atlantic as time goes on is actually hindering any pattern change as conditions become flabby in situ and troughs become unstuck?

Nearly reached a 50mph gust in one of the showers earlier this morning - really really gusty. Calmer since 10am though with largely sunny skies. Feeling cold in the wind too at 6C.

Had 970mb here on November 2nd this year so a little way to go down yet.

Just realised how low the pressure is now - 974mb. Thoroughly miserable day for the most part, bar a brief brighter interlude mid afternoon. Been pouring again this evening.

Another one of those days where it never properly gets light... Yawn.

It wasn't too bad actually. Less than two minutes of torrential rain and now the wind is gusting. Bit disappointing lol.

Thoroughly manky day in all. Despite it reaching 12C, it certainly doesn't feel it. Minutes away from a front-edge squall approaching from the west.

I suppose we can seek solace from the fact that the majority of Europe is also going to be suffering the same bland mildness as we are, albeit a bit drier, so it's not like we are right on the edge of something special happening so nearby. Our short term best bets for cold air really are from between west and north!

Getting gusty here but I think more convective gusts so far. Plenty of rain too... Yawn.

Where does that leave the ECM for us here in terms of performance? Somewhere between GFS and UKMO?

That has got October written all over it. Halloween 2014 for example. Only the uppers are more indicative of December warmth rather than October warmth. Other than that, all very boring on the model front still. The benefit of your chart above would be something drier for the south at least.