MP-R

Hardly. Quite standard stuff now we’re essentially at the autumn equinox. More likely now than earlier on in the month.

Autumn first with its various complications, late tastes of summer, early tastes of winter, and Atlantic storms. Then again, maybe just mellowness like most of last October. I'm interested in the possibility of something thundery over the weekend if the Atlantic trough takes on a more negative tilt with a surge of warmth ahead of it. Saturday looks like being warm and feeling quite humid, perhaps Sunday too albeit less settled. When the door finally opens, I think an Atlantic spell of sorts is pretty likely. Question is whether a nationwide unsettled spell or a N/S split again, in which case the south would stay drier.

Same as above. Mostly cloudy but still reached 20C and quite humid feeling. Should be a very different day tomorrow.

I'm not sure what has happened in Spain was a true gota fria, given the 'cold' connotation of air origin. Was there an Atlantic origin to the air? Cold drops occur from a jet stream cut off of cold upper air that drops south through the Bay of Biscay. I was in Barcelona in July 2011 (not a typical time for such an event) when this happened and not only was there a significant temperature drop, but also a series of thunderstorms and wind. The events of the last week seemed to start from an MCS moving up from north Africa and intensifying over the warm seas of the Mediterranean.

Great videos! That second one looked very similar to the 23/24 July one here. The first one is just incredible!

Next week would make a lovely clear frosty spell in winter!

The only mild and sunny Christmas Day I can remember in my lifetime is 2002. That was a weird one. Had been cold up until the 20th and turned cold after NY but the festive period was very mild and often wet!

Exactly - it's quite the novelty to have these conditions so late in the season. Let's make the most of it, just in case it's another 5 years before the next settled September! Imagine the coming week in winter - a nice cold frosty spell with plenty of sunshine to counteract the short days. Even Scotland and Northern Ireland look like joining in the better conditions as the week goes on, but always the risk of the Atlantic encroaching in a week's time. GFS more bullish about that whereas the ECM offers a cutoff solution.

21st Dec 2009, 17th Dec 2010 and 14th Jan 2015 (more marginal) are the most recent snow streamer examples here. 2009, although a more unusual synoptic, was a typical WNW off the Severn with embedded cold air that readily brought a line of snow showers through the night (actually starting late on the 20th). 2010 was more of a NW angle and a narrower band that started over South Wales but gave a heavier covering. 2015 was purely a polar maritime westerly (common in that winter) and a typical Severn streamer often seen with rain and hail showers brought snow in the early hours. Christmas 2004 also saw a similar steamer to 2010 further west but we only had a few snow showers here.

Beautiful day. Such a treat to come back from Florida to this in mid September!

Indeed. Marginal cold often delivers better than more severe cold. February 2012 a prime example - bitterly cold and minus double digits but not that much snow.

A bit like good summers that are overshadowed by excellent summers eg 1975 and 1976 or 2005 and 2006. However Feb 2009 still brought the highest number of snowfalls here in one week! 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 8th. It was the best run of channel lows I’ve ever witnessed.

Wouldn’t mind a 2016 style heatwave. The typical three fine days and a thunderstorm. Would be rather fitting for my return from Florida. Even a repeat of the 2014 lightning storms would be awesome.

How typical that I'm going to Florida during the week the strongest storm in decades hit. Originally was going to land on Wednesday night from Vegas but looks like I might be staying a bit longer and delaying my arrival into Miami until later in the week, in case of flooding and power outages etc.

It looked autumnal first thing yesterday morning when it was foggy, then cleared up and it was 26C in the afternoon - so very much still summer. A few trees are beginning to turn though, and by the weekend into next week it will certainly feel a lot more autumnal.

Just drove through a white area on the radar and counted about twenty raindrops on the windscreen...

Just drove through a white area on the radar and counted about twenty raindrops on the windscreen...

Right on the edge of convective cloud to the west and clearer sky to the east. May squeeze a brief shower before they move north.

For quite a while it was looking at least changeable into September, before a temporary change to more settled charts, which have now reverted back to changeable conditions being shown. Going forward it’ll be interesting to see how tropical storms play their part. Long benign spells in September tend be thanks to ridges being thrown up ahead of these lows. Then again, if the jet returns to where it was through mid August, it could be a recipe for further wet and windy spells.

Very stubborn mist today. Only just showing signs of clearing now. 20C

Yep very foggy this morning. Looks quite autumnal.

August 31st 2005 had 32.5C.

A light westerly breeze picked up this afternoon so although the morning warmed quicker than yesterday, the high was (only) 27.1C. A beautiful evening now.

Not quite as hot as yesterday but still gorgeous and the UV is the same.

I can’t recall any other summer as worthy of washout status as 2012. As said above, only half of 2007 was washout. Second half of June and all of July was wet, but the first half of June was actually dry as was August. Peak summer 2008 was comparable but June was dry.