MP-R

I’m also a little bit worried for my Christmas trip to Chamonix with these unusual southerlies wafting up into Europe and a rising 850 line. Plenty of time for change of course but having done tio Christmas trips to Poland where it was milder there than here, I thought the mountains would be a fairly safe snowy bet.

Each to their own I guess. I find cold weather in spring after a mild winter as much of a kick in the teeth as summer synoptics in autumn after a dire summer. Mild winters also tend to bring duller and wetter conditions so by spring I’m dying for some sun, which given the comparative sun strength to summer in reverse, is beautiful with some warmth. Any snow in spring is ok but never hangs around. Even the ‘epic’ April 2008 snow was gone by midday.

I’d take big pressure in January over Atlantic crud. The latter is very much an autumn weather type which indeed has graced most of the autumn just gone (or still ongoing lol). It’s to be expected that January and February are a lot drier than October to December but it would be really nice to get some seasonal anticyclonic conditions or a 2008/9 style inversion if we can’t get a cold snowy spell. I think the worst outcome would be a mild winter followed by a cold spring. I think I’d actually consider emigrating if that happens lol.

No comments in the mad thread for nearly an hour. Just shows how dire and unseasonal the immediate outlook is. I was hoping to get out and about walking this weekend but everywhere is muddy again. Sigh.

Pretty mundane today. Preferred the frost and sunshine of earlier this week...

Many find memories of this winter, which I actually much preferred to the following winter, even though Dec 2010 was better. Some memories from the winter: 11th Dec - final Carol service of secondary school - cold and foggy 17th Dec - second driving lesson ever and it snowed in the afternoon 20th/21st Dec - a memorable snow streamer off the Bristol Channel 23rd Dec - snow to rain event 01st-04th Jan - very frosty start to the New Year 06th Jan - school was supposed to return but was cancelled due to heavy snow 07th/08th Jan - exceptionally cold and Bristol harbour frozen 13th Jan - heavy snow again and nearly missed A level exams because of it After midmonth, the rest of the winter produced no disruptive weather here although it snowed multiple times in February and there were some flurries later in January. All in all a great winter!

-0.7C to start, 9C now. An early spring like diurnal range.

Rather sober reading, but to be expected I guess. I never did think December would deliver the goods, unless from a complete surprise. Later into the month, given the signal for my cyclonic conditions, I personally hope charts sequences like this will become more likely: Perhaps then a chance of sliding lows and undercuts if low heights and higher heights align favourably: All conjecture and just for fun pulling out these CFS charts but more interesting to look at than some of the trash in the reliable.

Interestingly, I've recorded my northerlies in winter months than autumn months. The hardest period to achieve one seems to be September - November. The prime period seems to be mid Jan to late April. May have been different historically however. Despite starting myself in 2004, I still haven't recorded enough years to find a clear trend in easterlies. Since then, there have been many westerly springs and easterly autumn months.

Other than Monday, temperatures haven't been that much below average here during the day, but nights have been a bit chillier than usual. These opening days of December have been lovely. A beautiful crisp feel, things have finally dried out a bit and the sun makes all the difference. Shame it's about to go the way of the pear again. I'd happily take a cold anticyclone for another week if it means sunshine, frost and fog.

Heavy frost this morning and a clear start, very similar to Monday. Drove through some isolated fog too on the way into Bristol.

Bit further northwest and that would be perfect! Although, I'm due to go to London on that Saturday and am slightly worried I might not be able to find the M4 lol.

Temperature doing what it does best - fall all evening to 1C then stop. Hasn't moved in the last 90 minutes!

Beautiful morning and very timely for December. -3.4C the minimum and still -1C now. More of this please!

Bright but chilly today. Not quite ‘sunny’ do to speak with stubborn cloud at times. Hopefully the next two days will be sunny at least. Max of 05.6C and now -0.4C.

Bottomed at 2C and not falling any further, despite clear skies.

Can happen more often than you might think. Some recent examples... even 2013 had a dry start! In fact, that chart you've posted doesn't look too different from 2014, whose cold predominantly came from chilly high pressure, especially towards the end.

Understandable, but given their track record, I'm not going to worry just yet. There's always the chance that we get a strong Atlantic from between W and N which would be much more interesting than a more autumnal jet profile from between W and S. Recently, when the models have defaulted to Atlantic conditions, high pressure has tended to sink SWwards rather than towards the continent.

The wettest autumns on my books: 2000 - 534.6mm (all months were very wet) 2012 - 491.1mm (all months were very wet) 2006 - 439.6mm (all months were wet, but particularly November) 2019 - 397.3mm (all months will have been wet, particularly October) 2009 - 383.4mm (2/3 of this autumn's rainfall came from November alone; September and October were drier than average) 2002 - 381.2mm (September and the first third of October were very dry; the rest of the autumn was very wet, particularly November)

Well now that autumn is coming to a close, I can say that it has been one of the most unpleasant I can remember. Bar a beautiful week in mid September, a few days of dramatic rainfall, and the surprise snow falling last week, it has been a dull, very wet and predominantly boring few months. Hopefully winter will make up for this autumn!

Ignore posts like that. As you say, we do indeed have a 4-5 day cold spell coming up which will make a welcome change. After that, a typical ridge/trough pattern rather than raving blowtorch or frigid easterlies. In the type of pattern shown, conditions will never be the same from two days to the next. As you've probably gathered, FI is quite short term. Personally, I'd prefer the ECM solution for mid next week which would bring less in the way of rain/wind between cold spells but that's all conjecture. I'm certainly looking forward to a seasonal end of the week / early next week.

Kink in the isobars which represents the potential for a secondary low development within the ensuing northerly flow following the clearance of the low across southern counties on Saturday. Helps pep up wintry precipitation if parameters are sufficient for such.

Very Januaryesque today. Cloudy, 5C and a bitter wind. Rain not far away.

Yes, disgustingly mild for the time of year if it came off, but I'd take foggy mornings and sunny afternoons over just leaden skies / mild drizzle. Not for too long though...

Been sitting at 0.2C for the last half an hour lol... just a tiny bit more please!