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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
MP-R replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Exceptional yes, but keep in mind that this happened in the closing 3 days of the month, which until then, was very unsettled. Tentative signs of a more settled and more typically August-like final third to the month with a slightly more meridional jet to between now and then. I suppose as we get nearer the end of the month, with the Atlantic up a notch, it won't take long for the typical N/S split to appear, edging south with time. That's all a very long way off however, and I hope to see at least one settled spell this month before I go away on the 28th. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards
MP-R replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
A few flashes and rumbles near Wells recently. -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
MP-R replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Perhaps this is what summer will look like more often after October 31st... Signs of pressure rises after next weekend but that of course means another week of wasted time. ECM looks less ridiculously autumnal than the GFS. I’m personally hoping for at least a week of settled sunshine between the 20th and 27th. After that it can do what it likes as I go away in search of summer for the third time this year lol. -
Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc
MP-R replied to SunnyDazee's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
You're probably thinking of 2016, which was indeed warm, but not overly settled. The 12th-15th of that month was bordering on hot. 2017 on the other hand was cool and very wet. -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
MP-R replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed it is such a pain these lows are timed for the weekend. Another weekend of plans potentially scuppered. Then another one ganging up for the Bank Holiday weekend. Each one is coming in further south too despite drawing up pretty warm uppers ahead of them. Not far to the east over Europe there will be high temperatures. -
Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc
MP-R replied to SunnyDazee's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I wonder if we'll have another August-October 2017 type period. A naff August, with a warm and sunny Bank Holiday, then an even naffer September, then August synoptics turning up in October lol. Seems to happen so often now - early October being more reliable for nice weather than August and September. Unfortunately, I can't see September bringing about any notable improvement if August continues poor. It's only done that once in recent times and that was in 2014. -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
MP-R replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Or we’ve just been lucky with the placement of troughs and highs, which would of course be unlucky in winter as we’d end up with a negative NAO and still end up mild. -
Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc
MP-R replied to SunnyDazee's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
A very typical Augtober day with frequent heavy showers and squally winds in those showers. Maybe we will get 8th month synoptics in Octaugust. -
Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc
MP-R replied to SunnyDazee's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I’m talking about this month. Haven’t had a completely sunny day since July. -
Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc
MP-R replied to SunnyDazee's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
First day back in the UK. Humid it certainly is but mostly cloudy since 1pm. When oh when will we get a fully sunny day! -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
MP-R replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s quite funny how these lows like to arrive on Fridays. First the 7th June, then 19th July and now 9th August. Perfectly timed to mess up weekend plans or events - this time the Bristol balloon fiesta. Not many flights will be had I don’t think. Also looking quite cool beyond the weekend. Relatively warm for the south at least before then but that’s all irrelevant if it’s not sunny. -
Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
MP-R replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Funny seeing these autumn comments already. It was quite foggy early on July 23rd then became hot and sunny 32C in the afternoon. A long way to go before autumn. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards
MP-R replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc
MP-R replied to SunnyDazee's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I’ve said it before elsewhere on the forum but August here is probably the most consistent summer month here - consistently mediocre (only occasionally good). June and July are either the corkers or stinkers. Late August to at least New Year however I’d expect the Atlantic to have the upper hand, perhaps further into the winter if we get a strong La Niña or El Niño to override the climatological norm. -
Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc
MP-R replied to SunnyDazee's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Look no further than the last 2 years, 2017 especially. 2015 was pretty cool too. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards
MP-R replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I’d rather it the other way around lol. Nice during summer then unsettled in autumn (then again we are long overdue a settled September!). Off to northern Spain for a week so hoping for some storms at least in the Pyrenees. Without all the low cloud in between!