MP-R

Cold mafia or mild junta notwithstanding, from a general weather enthusiast's point of view, there's very little of interest anywhere in the models at the moment that's even worth analysing. Out of all the possible outcomes for winter weather, it looks like the one that delivers bland is going to rule the roost at least for the next week. What's really going to get me is the lack of sunshine. I actually wouldn't mind the silly mildness if it came with brightness.

Came across this offering from the CFS ... at the end of April! Quite often I go to the CFS just for fun to see what scenarios it shows at long distance. We all of course know that long range forecasts are largely garbage but it can be quite entertaining looking at summer charts in 'mid winter'. However, on this occasion, even the CFS is pretty Atlantic dominated in one guise or another right up until June! Maybe we've got a year like 2002 on the cards.

Quite. Right now we could do with putting this jet on steroids to good use ie storm force northwesterly from Greenland. Anything from the continent will be pretty useless right now.

Making the most of sunnier glimpses today. Sunshine levels look limited for most of next week which will be very depressing. Catch 22 situation. Much drier than December but also much duller.

Went for a walk today without a coat, which is unusual for me in winter. Although the temperature is similar to much of December, without howling wind it’s not cold at all. Birds were also chirping away readily and there are snowdrops beginning to shoot. Feels more like March!

Funnily enough it’s been brighter with broken cloud since midday. Must’ve been a very slight disturbance to bring some drizzle to parts earlier on.

More akin to lower pressure in the 1020s. Currently 1035mb, isobars far apart, uppers not in the warm category yet. I’d expect the above conditions to become more prevalent through tomorrow when we pick up a southwesterly.

I’m still wondering when autumn gives way to early winter!

True. That would just be unnecessary.

Wouldn't think we're in an area of high pressure. Cloudy, breezy, mild and generally meh. Feels more like March!

Of course by this stage, we'd had a cold frosty and foggy spell around Christmas in the former winter. There was also a northerly with some snow in the final week of January, and a much more significant cold spell and snow event in February. I think there was even a northerly with some snow showers in March but was much less significant. Equally, December 2007 did produce a nice 10-12 day spell of faux cold as it's called on here. This winter on the other hand has been pure trash so far.

Fair point. Well let’s hope it nosedives in early Feb. Really don’t want it to wreck spring. March is unsettled anyway but I loathe cold Aprils and Mays.

Must be near record strength for February. By then you’d expect it to be a weak affair!

GFS 06Z again flirting with various wedgies of higher pressure between lows. FI indeed shows a surface flow off the continent even though not particularly cold. That seems much more plausible than Atlantic hurricane-style lows or frigid beasterlies a la CFS.

Grey and dull this morning. More than one shade of grey at least....

It's quite similar with some places in Spain. When I lived in Madrid, I often had to explain to foreigners that not far inland from the east coast, it can get quite chilly in winter. Teruel is indeed one of the coldest spots in Spain for nighttime minima at least. Like Turkey, the country has altitude on its side big time!

Anyone got a ruler handy? Trying to find the most direct route to the Azores...

This! I wouldn’t actually mind a sunny mild spell right now but this tends to be a February thing rather than January for some reason.

I wasn't following the models so much in 2006/7, but at least later in the month there was a cold spell. Maybe that's where we'll find ours this winter. I've posted a few charts below that delivered snow here in an otherwise arduous January setup. January 2015 was the classic cold zonality with snow showers off the Bristol Channel. January 2008 was a heavy rain to snow event with evaporative cooling very much at play. January 2007 was a northerly that emerged after the jet stream finally realised what time of year it was. January 2005 was something of a surprise given the month up to that point, and virtually a repeat performance of a slider that also happened in December 2004. However a grim and un-Januarylike it's looking for the foreseeable, one just has to hope something appears in the coming weeks. Personally, my cut off date is mid Feb. I'll be off to the southern states for business, then will be looking for more springlike charts come March.

Now it’s raining! Can’t even get the forecast right a day in advance... bodes well.

Happy New Year fellow southwesterners and west countriers! 2020 starts as 2019 left. Grey, misty and neither cold nor mild. Very boring and unseasonal outlook too so maybe this decade I’ll have to find some other interests. Weather is a huge interest of mine aside from running a business but my word it got boring as the decade went on.

As covered in my first sentence and many times before, but thanks anyway.

You know it's bad when the CFS gets pulled out... so that's exactly what I've done lol. Not without some interest at least. A straight northerly followed by a UK high would at least be seasonal for later January. Perhaps February will be the month when some of the cold up north gets let out, at weekendly intervals. A possibly rather cold and stormy start to March too - nothing unusual there. In the short term however, all rather bland. Again I hear myself saying - at least it will be much drier than September-December...

Indeed! A good proportion of July’s rainfall came in one day here! Even August’s was essentially crammed into the middle third of the month. The real letdown was the first half / two thirds of June. Just miserable. I don’t think I’ve ever worn a puffer coat in June before...

Correct me if I’m wrong, but surely less sea ice should in the arctic should result in a weaker vortex? Ive also found it strange that the PV loves Greenland where Siberia would surely much more appropriate for it...