MP-R

Much like January this year… but that just turned out bone dry, bright and chilly.

In Absence of True Seasons Indeed…. It seems to be playing out as the same weather we’ve always had, just for longer periods of time, and excluding more of the extremes like snow, thunderstorms, severe gales etc. This of course allows for longer dull periods, longer wet periods, longer dry periods and so potentially higher heatwave maxima if heatwaves last longer.

Wold Topper No bad thing, most suncreams are as bad if not worse than UV itself so it’s very much a risk : reward re what one slaps on.

Feeling cooler today at 11.5°C but occasional sun coming out.

CryoraptorA303 Camden is valid.

CryoraptorA303 Depending on what you mean by significant, 2018, 1995 and 1990 come to mind. The nineties examples were week long spells though.

CryoraptorA303 That's a very interesting point, and would suit our unique situation on this planet.

Not sure if you meant to quote my post as I can't see how it relates 100%, but yes that does often seem the case. Sometimes the hot and wet coincides e.g. Aug 2004 and 1997. Wrt to your second point, and as @Alderc 2.0 pointed out above, CET is largely irrelevant. June did a lot of the heavy lifting last summer anyway. The higher CET just meant the turd came out sloppier than perhaps otherwise.

Summer8906 August 2012 was too wet to be considered decent in my neck of the woods. It was better compared to June and July, but had it followed June and July 2014 for example, it would've been considered poor. Last August and 2007 are perhaps more comparable... a lot of dry anticyclonic weather with few extremes and occasional unsettled blips. 2007 did better on the sunshine, 2023 did better on the temperature. Both were poor from a thunderstorms point of view but neither had lengthy wet Atlantic spells like the Julys. Anyway, back to the here and now, and all I can say looking at the models is...

Bristawl Si Thinking back to 2022… round about now a near fortnight of glorious weather was starting…

I hate to think what that makes the likes of the 2007-12 period…

Summer8906 A fine summer AND autumn wouldn’t go amiss!

WYorksWeather This would also be an issue with your second point about a warm Atlantic summer. Like last July had high minima but meagre or cool maxima, a warm version would be on steroids

WYorksWeather Well that would surely spell a very thundery summer with flabby areas of low pressure close to the SW, such that the usual spots cop the downpours and storms while the eastern side stays drier. Very unusual for that pattern to persist at length though.

stainesbloke There hasn’t really been much change in summer, but spring has become sunnier over the last 20-25 years, and actually so have winters (this year not included). What’s noticeable in winter however is the sunshine distribution… often all or nothing!

35.7°C for me… purely as it’s the average of the last ten years!

More like a spring switcheroony than the monotonous crud we've had recently: Bit more in the way of variation on tonight's GFS. Loving the prospect of high teens and sunshine in the first chart, and blustery showers that would probably bring hail/sleet/snow in the heaviest bursts in the second chart.

This is the problem, yes. All the right weather conditions but often at the wrong time of year. I'm sure my perception of February might be different if I lived in London. Sadly, I am in a cooler wetter part of the country in prevailing Atlantic conditions (thankfully not to the degree of places further north and west though!).

LetItSnow! Bit simplistic for me, but fair enough. Here, average maxima were 04.5C lower than my April average, although minima were 00.5C above. That narrow temperature range, plus lack of sun, plus abundant rainfall spells autumn for me rather than spring. Granted, however, that for a few hours on Thursday 15th it did feel springlike...

Interesting you found February springlike. For me, 2023 was a springlike February as the emphasis was on sunshine and hardly any rain. This February just felt more like a naff November and had rainfall amounts to successfully emulate one.

Relax… it doesn't start in earnest until the equinox at the earliest anyway.

B87 Id give anything for those rainfall figures here…

It’s a grim one out there!

SunSean April in the west and September in the east perhaps. Don’t rate September here personally… almost always falls apart after the first week.

In Absence of True Seasons Yes the same spots locally that were flooded last weekend now have big puddles again. Need to get beyond March. It’s often an unsettled month. April much better. Drier spells more likely and stronger sun to dry things out quicker.