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A.J

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Everything posted by A.J

  1. A.J
    ok....absokutely drenched...got about 15 mins of video footage, need to recharge the camera again......in terms of lightning flashes, this blows MAY 9th last year out of the water 1-3 flashes per second from all parts of the sky...It's all high based though meaning it's mainly 'sheet' lightning thus I don't know how well it's going to come out on video...I'll upload all footage this evening
  2. A.J
    The outflow from this 'MCS-in-the-making' should be the trigger for numerous storms developing through the midlands in the next few hours....**strewth, what a lightning strike just then!!**
  3. A.J
    me too....constant thunder, very high based so not too much visible lightning right now......and this is just the leading edge of the complex, and look at that 2nd multicell that's fired to the SE of this one......Oh Happy Days!
  4. A.J
    No I don't think it will miss you, just to reiterate from earlier it's building on it's eastern flank and heading straight for you...PPN is fanning out ahead of the storm and even though we've lots of thunder here currently, the main action is still a good 20 miles or so to the SW near Bridgnorth heading NNE towards Cosdall
  5. A.J
    **lightning crawler alert** **lightning crawler alert**.....that was a beauty!.....almost constant low thunder to my west & south west....C'mon camera, charge dammit!!
  6. A.J
    Yay!...just had the 1st intra cloud lightning bolt of the day and loud growl of thunder...
  7. A.J
    The camera is charging so hopefully should get some great footage of this storm complex....as mentioned earlier by 'alza' (I think) it's building on it's eastern flank, great news for here....so if things stay the same as they are now, Stafford, Telford, Cannock & Rugeley areas should have a great show
  8. A.J
    Ian, you're in a prime spot for this monster...good luck!
  9. A.J
    Very very encouraging to hear, I remember may last year when we had that monster you were our upwind storm spotter
  10. A.J
    ...and a new multicell is developing to the SE of the one marching into the west midlands and this one has Birmingham's name written all over it in a couple or hours time.......'El Brumo is coming!!'
  11. A.J
    What a fantastic looking cloud scape here currently..Elevated Ac Cas turrets overhead growing rapidly,streaking out from the multicell to the SW, and dark skies with some nice structure to my SW....whether it strikes here or not (and I think it will within the hour) someone, somewhere near by is in for one hell of a morning wake up call!!
  12. A.J
    It'll be a close call Mark, but it's building on it's flanks, very organized matey, should certainly get some lightning/thunder...look at the lightning spread Mark, that is one really active storm cluster, it's tapping into a hell of a lot of low level moisture advecting into the region...I was chatting with W09 via pm last night and we both were eye-ing up this possible scenario with considerable interest for the midlands around breakfast....The storm parameters for this morning/afternoon are about as good as you can get in the UK!
  13. A.J
    Morning all!.....look at that lovely multicell cluster heading through the welsh borders!..Very active indeed!....Just run the radar loop and finger crossed it's look like a head on collision with me in about an hour or so
  14. A.J
    Ok, I've just plotted a few charts using the GFS/UKWW plotter and married these to the latest infra-red satellite imagery, and my take is that this line of interest is tapping into some moderate mixed-layer cape (a couple hundred j/kg) which is increasing as warm air advects northwards from France, and a little 4 layer bouyancy as well....Cloud tops though on the infra-red imagery are nothing special so it looks shallow convection currently, but mid-level lapse rates are steepening which might account for the increase in intensity of the ppn....I don't think it will be electrically active, but it's not out of the question
  15. A.J
    very good, excellent piccies, classic shelf cloud with the 'UFO' look about it and gust front
  16. A.J
    only for the Benelux countries....A good swathe of the UK is under a level 1 alert from thurs 06z to fri 06z Yes, ties in nicely with the estofex forecast progging initial stratiform convection during the first part of the night...tomorrow morning is where it gets interesting.....possible elevated thunderstorms moving up from France and if the timings are on our side then copious low level moisture advection may well allow elevated storms to root themselves into the boundary layer and tap into all that energy and go bang in a big way...fingers firmly crossed!
  17. A.J
    In that case, I'll join you for a bit...hang on, I'll just pull up a chair, and grab a beer ........
  18. A.J
    I think you might be a tad early...optimal time IMO for any possible elevated storms for our neck of the woods is in the early hours towards breakfast time
  19. A.J
    Yes I noticed that as well....a nice clump of Cb's in western Biscay.....This is interesting because the steering winds for this area of convection and indeed most of the weather to the south/SW of the UK seems to be broadly NEerly which is at odds with some of the forecasts I've seen tonight which are keen to progress elevated convection NWwards from France into the Irish sea....definitely worth keeping an eye on
  20. A.J
    Dan's a good forecaster, I just hope he's wrong, as it will be a case of 'close, but no cigar' for the west midlands if his forecast verifies....ie an overnight MCS affecting areas less than 100 miles to the west, and possible severe convection initiating less than 50 miles to the east tomorrow, with us left high & dry....yes, it reminds me of a certain song....'MCS to the left of me, Supercells to the right, here I am, stuck in the middle near Crewe'....
  21. A.J
    He'll be hearing from my lawyers lol
  22. A.J
    ...well I was hoping to get lucky tonight, I gave my other half the knowing wink, and got the look back that said 'not in your lifetime sonny'........Oh, you mean a storm?.... Yes, hold on to your hats, batten down the hatches because 'El Brumo' is coming!....(Yes, a completely shameless RAMP! )
  23. A.J
    finally got some Ac Cas building in the southern sky...I had been thinking this evening that the skies here in the midlands were showing very little in the way of signs of mid-level instability...It's been mainly patch cirrus drifting NEwards, but as I said definitely some Ac Cas now.....a good sign.....and good luck to everybody tonight/tomorrow, and yes, that even goes to you lot down in the SE
  24. A.J
    and a polite notice to all members, it is likely to be a very busy period on the forum, especially here in the convective threads, so with that in mind, think before posting, keep it on topic, and report rather than to reply to any post one feels questionable, this way it saves cluttering up the thread....Thanks in advance ...now on with 'El Gordo II Brumo'
  25. A.J
    Thanks Cam, but assured members of the site-team are around to assist members and steer the thread if need be.....
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