A.J

Pop over to my place in the west midlands tomorrow...prospects look rather good atm....I am planned to help out in the kids school sports day, but I've a hunch it may well be cancelled...lol

See my entry last Saturday....I posted my thoughts on this then.......the models were predicting this secondary low for several days, nice to see the consistancy http://forum.netweat...00#entry2321406

that's it, well done, you've gone and jinxed it!.....look look everyone! if we don't get any storms we can all blame 'Norfolk Sheep!'

Can't sat the actual word because it will jinx any chance of storms....but it rhymes with 'bum ringer'....lol

A good post H...whilst we're pouring all over the latest model data it's easy to overlook that model data is very rarely 100& accurate even at the very short time scales, and that's where sky watching and radar watching become more and more prevalent...The models suggest Midlands northwards, but it's not definitive

Yep, the NAE (if it's to be believed) keeps the SE quadrant almost bone-dry throughout the entire period out to T48 on this current run....awaiting on tonights NMM run....twists & turns to come, me thinks

You're smoking the same brand as me I see

hmm...have to agree, 18z progresses the unstable moist plume and transfers energy more rapidly out into the near continent (benelux) ...the window for home growns on thursday narrows IMO, although as you posted it won't affect storm coverage (if any) wednesday night into thursday morning...For us up here, it seems reminiscent of april 2009?

You dare speak out and defy the weather gods mere mortal?.............They were going to strike you down with thunderbolts & lightning for your blasphemy, but realised that live in the south east so no thunderbolts & lightning being wasted on you matey, they're earmarked for elsewhere .....Just re-read the above and have come to the conclusion 'What the hell have I been smoking tonight?' Anyhoos, just waiting on the 18z NMM to see what the updated picture is....At the moment my feeling is a possible elevated MCS tomorrow night developing to the SW drifting slowly NEwards into the west country and the midlands, decaying somewhat as it does...If this scenario plays out, then areas to the north and east may struggle to find the neccessary solar heating on thursday to develop big storms due to detrious from overnight thundery rain/storms...anyhoos, that's just one possible scenario...The FAX charts frankly look a bit of a mess, so any number of possible scenarios may yet play out....exciting times for fans of convective weather I think you'll agree

Hello all, just got in from work, and I just want to let you all know that I'm looking forward to this plume event...Forget it the SE, you guys are getting nothing!..It's the west midlands turn now boyos, & the weather gods have decreed that this plume event will now and forever be known as 'EL BRUMO'

??....depends on what comparisons you're using Lewis.....certainly an upgrade from the 00z run in terms of surface CAPE, bouyancy & dewpoint spread for wednesday and thursday.....if you're comparing like for like (ie, yesterday's 06z GFS and today's 06 GFS's then yes, substantially less condusive 'big storm' parameters, but that's to be expected as the storm parameters that the GFS has been showing up until yesterday were bordering on the ridiculous and were always highly unlikely to verify

It's one of the very few plume type scenarios for parts of the UK last summer...It's something that the sarf-easteners keep banging on about, but for us westerners it was a non-event, and not worth giving the time of day for.....here in the west midlands, this plume event was known by the moniker 'El Crapo'......Me bitter?....never!

it's safe when you can actually see the lightning and hear the thunder....lol

If everything is shunted east again I would be tempted to take a long vacation to the funny farm!

ignore this completely...,.he's bitter!

You can find many charts right here on NW, & for the price of a couple of pints a month, a subscription to NW Extra will give you access to just about any chart you can imagine.....As an alternative, a plethora of charts including hi-res charts shown above can be found here ---------------> http://www.meteociel.fr/

I'd bank the 12z GFS...it positively jumps out, slaps me and the face and shout 'spanish plume', with a thermal low over spain moving north into Biscay with an advancing atlantic low...This screams for an overnight MCS wednesday night into thursday morning for southern & central parts of the UK, home growns during thursday, then another possible MCS thursday night......As I said, I'd bank this run, but as it's all T100+, I wouldn't put my house on it verifying...Still, the potential is there for 24-48 hours of very warm and very thundery weather

nothing happening there... no detections or radar returns...do you mean the north sea?,It's more likely picking up sporadic sferics from the northern and western flanks of the MCS over Benelux

you can view more charts than you can shake a stick at (plus all the hi-res ones) here.... http://www.meteociel.fr and use google 'translate' (as it's a french site)....The alternative, for the price of a couple of pints of beer a month can be found by subscribing to NW Extra (see the NW home page)

just had a look at the hi-res NMM output for tomorrow, and the 12z run shows the potential for it to be a very wet day north of Brum

nothing of note matey, it's a bit like Englebert Humperdink, i.e fading into obscurity

as far as I'm concerned, this is the worst summer (so far) that I have ever experienced....wet & generaly cool, and when there are days for something more summery (ie sunshine & thunderstorms) nothing happens...I don't rant very often, but frankly the weather the past few weeks has been thoroughly depressing, & I can't wait to retire and leave this god forsaken country (meteorologically speaking) for good!

actually have some blue sky currently to my east, high level cloud overhead making sunshine very watery at best, dark to the south & west....humid & warm, but the clearing sky does bode well for areas further east this afternoon for homegrowns

signs of life now near Cherbourg heading towards the SE....looks very promising indeed for the SE later on today, especially with the possibility of a kent clipper MCS

well...it's certainly humid outside, 100% cloud cover..we're now under the influence of some very moist, high theta-w value air, so where as further east and south today good convection and thunderstorm development are forecast, here in the west midlands what is falling out of the sky now could be described as 'convective drizzle'....lol