A.J

A re-post from the convective thread as it's relevant to our region... hot, sunny & humid sums up the weather here in the West Midlands....There is some patchy Altocumulus overhead indicating some mid-level instability as a weakening CF encroaches from the SW...Also to my east, some convective cloud is bubbling up, but with a cap/inversion in place around the 850hpa mark, development is being inhibited currently....I think there is a lower risk of showers/thunderstorms for the west midlands today, but even so, I shall be sky/radar watching with interest ...and a quick edit...as the decaying CF seems to be passing through currently, I fear the real action (if any) may well be to the east of region for today, as it's the air mass along and just in front of the encroaching Cold Front which is expected to destabilise......Still, a question of watching and waiting, me thinks

hot, sunny & humid sums up the weather here in the West Midlands....There is some patchy Altocumulus overhead indicating some mid-level instability as a weakening CF encroaches from the SW...Also to my east, some convective cloud is bubbling up, but with a cap/inversion in place around the 850hpa mark, development is being inhibited currently....I think there is a lower risk of showers/thunderstorms for the west midlands today, but even so, I shall be sky/radar watching with interest

Don't listen to the doomsayers folks....It's a gorgeous day out there, very warm & sunny, and with a chance of a thunderstorm later to boot....What could be better!

I phoned up my sis (who lives in Brixham)....She's reporting distant lightning out in the channel..No thunder heard though

Am surrounded by some rather impressive towers, very dark to my east.....whether or not they can go electrified is open to debate, but encouraged never the less by this mid evening convection

my thoughts exactly...fingers crossed!

On the NW extra storm forecast there is a cap showing for my neck of the woods, 49j/kg, which does erode as the afternoon wears into the evening before re-establishing during the late evening and overnight period

the 06z GFS & Hi-res NMM models are progging some insane CAPE & Lift values for the midlands today...2000j/kg & -5C lift for my location....A crying shame there's very little in the way of a trigger factor...a strong cap is in place but for parts of the West Midlands the hi-res output is showing some decent surface wind convergence, so just a sniff of something going bang later on in my vicinity

cloud gone now....already getting nice and toasty with the outside chance of something thundery this evening

IMO to be classed as a thunderstorm, a cell needs to last at least 20-30 mins in situ, with visible lightning and audible thunder throughout the duration, anything less is a thundery shower

I've got a good vantage point for those Cb's/Cu Congestus.....they looked beautiful lit up by the low sun, but seem to be collapsing now...atleast they do from my viewpoint

here it is on radar, just to my east.....poor thing, looks lonely...lol

big Cu Congestus cauliflowers here...(near stafford).....it's the only tower to have broken the cap so far...can't really see whats further north over the Peaks due to heat haze

Some towers going up now to my east (Stone & then down through Cannock by the looks of things)....definitely Cu Congestus glowing orange in the heat haze...I'll definitely be keeping my eyes on these for next next few hours as the hi-res modelling puts me right under the area of surface convergence

yes convection has initiated with 3 distinct Cu fields forming....1) the Southern uplands in Scotland...2) The Pennines .....& 3) The Welsh mountains.....these areas will likely be the focal points for thunderstorm activity (if any)

Being a member of the NW team, I am very aware of what this topic is for, so I don't need to be reminded, thank you! By all means make posts on CFS output, there's nothing wrong with that, but perhaps adjust your posting style so that it's clear what the particular model output represent (ie pattern changes etc etc) otherwise again, for newbies, confusion can reign...It might just be me, but sometimes it seems that your posts on CFS output come across as you consider it the most likey eventuality..Agreed, the CFS has picked out some accurate trends recently, that's what it's there for, but I can also recount numerous times when its output has been way off the mark....Like I said, no disrespect intended......Infact, just wondering about the possibilities of a specific thread for long range modelling (if it's not been already done?) ....I do find that particular model output fascinating and it would be a shame if quality member inputs get lost in this thread....What do you think? Anyhoos, on that note, I'll bow out of the discussion to avoid going off on further tangents

The CFS model output is to taken with a very large pinch of salt...It's main function (certainly on this forum) is to pick out possible (not probable) trends & pattern changes.....to pick out specifics such a temperatures etc is, with the greatest respect, fraught with danger & liable to be very inaccurate....Again, no disrespect to the previous poster, but I felt it needed to brought to the attention of thread readers, especially members learning about meteorology otherwise confusion could easily reign if CFS output pans out to be inaccurate.......For reasonably accurate modelling out to T192 GFS, UKMO & ECMWF are the models of choice, and again out into the realms of FI for possible pattern changes/trends these are the models of choice

At a guess, I'd say a Nuclear detonation....lol Certainly a beefy storm, almost perfect symmetry in shape and nice over-shooting top on visi-sat....Drifting WNW on infra-red

24C here.....that's my warmest temp of the year so far I think

I'm trying to work out whether or not that is an overshooting top, or if what appears to be an anvil sheath is in fact a seperate cloud layer from the Cb..Robbie, can you confirm mate?

my view on convective potential over the next couple of days or so is that it will be isolated...There will be a high pressure ridging in with warm stable air aloft surpressing bouyancy & lapse rates....Some local convergence will probably trigger the odd sharp shower as air bursts through a surpressing cap down the spine of the UK, but apart from that very little convective weather IMO..you can have all the CAPE in the world, but if the air is sinking then diddly squat will happen generally............In saying that, those lucky few who may catch the odd downpour will certainly know about it!

Cloud was forecast for the SE quadrant (I guess Bedford is as much in the south east as it is the Midlands)...tomorrow though you should join in with the glorious warm weather

It's already feeling nice and toasty out in the back garden, what a pleasant relief after what seems like aeons of cold & damp...Bring on the increasing warmth!

It will be interesting to see how it all pans out...It's worth noting though that it was only a week or so ago that model output was showing virtually no settled spell to speak of at all, on current output the settled spell should continue until the realms of FI, as at T192 most parts of the UK are still under the influence of high pressure to the east with a stalled LP in the SW approaches

depends what you mean by western areas...Those temps are certainly expected to be reached in the West Midlands & north and east Wales