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A.J

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Everything posted by A.J

  1. A.J
    Nick, according to the grumbles of discontent I can hear rumbling away in the SE, you're going straight to hell for saying that!
  2. A.J
    A repost from the convective discussion thread as it's relevant to our region... further to my earlier post, the model outputs are firming up on tomorrow, the NMM, NAE, HIRLAM & GFS are in general agreement on the 06z runs, and all I can say is Stone me!!...the west Midlands will be under water tomorrow with up to 70mm of rainfall forecasted!...Plenty of heavy rain & possible flooding also for the east & north Midlands, parts of Eastern England & SE England......As far as storm possibilities go, some MLCAPE early on tomorrow morning, with a modicum of 4 layer lift, & moderate mid-level lapse rates, but saturated moisture profiles, so maybe some elevated convection, but at this stage I wouldn't expect much TBH
  3. A.J
    further to my earlier post, the model outputs are firming up on tomorrow, the NMM, NAE, HIRLAM & GFS are in general agreement on the 06z runs, and all I can say is Stone me!!...the west Midlands will be under water tomorrow with up to 70mm of rainfall forecasted!...Plenty of heavy rain & possible flooding also for the east & north Midlands, parts of Eastern England & SE England......As far as storm possibilities go, some MLCAPE early on tomorrow morning, with a modicum of 4 layer lift, & moderate mid-level lapse rates, but saturated moisture profiles, so maybe some elevated convection, but at this stage I wouldn't expect much TBH
  4. A.J
    ok, new thread here --------------> locking this one now
  5. A.J
    Righty O.....some interesting weather coming up for all you peeps ooop north, so with that in mind here's a new thread to chat away to your hearts content..... old thread here ---------->
  6. A.J
    Okerly Dokerly....time for a new thread for you all, so closing this one shortly
  7. A.J
    ok, I've drained my tea, so consider this thread locked........New thread here ---------->
  8. A.J
    Ok, another squeeky clean thread for you all, so carry on here....
  9. A.J
    Alright folks .....As there's some potential for weather 'of interest' over the next couple of days, I'm starting a clean thread shortly, so I'll lock this one after I've had a cup of tea
  10. A.J
    I don't think so Mark TBH, the parameters are not in place, or anything like as extreme as last thursday....I'm off work today, so when the NMM updates I'll have a good look at the output and then post my thoughts....Bare in mind though that it'll only be my interpretations using my limited knowledge, so subject to correction!
  11. A.J
    Hi, hopefully the hi-res outputs should fall into line sometime today...The model runs will be updating around 11am, 5pm, & 11pm tonight (06z, 12z, 18z runs respectively)...they should give us all a better more accurate picture
  12. A.J
    I take it you just cut & paste the same post everyday? lol Well, the hi-res models at at loggerheads.....The NMM places the area of heaviest ppn (with the attendant flooding risk) over Northern parts of England and the borders, whereas the NAE takes the same rainfall 100-200 miles further south over Lincolnshire, parts of England and into the East/West Midands with up to 50mm in places, as the HIRLAM takes the worst of the rainfall even further south with the worst affected areas being the south Mildlands & Central/Southern England.....A considerable difference in output!...So which model is going to blink first?
  13. A.J
    Yes, indeed, quite a dramatic change in outputs from the 12z to 18z.....Now showing some heavy rain grazing the east coast before more showery ppn developes further west along the frontal boundary.....Looks pretty dry further south now with limited convective opportunities due to extensive cloud cover...and then tomorrow night, rinse & repeat by the looks of things currently
  14. A.J
    no worries........one of the hosts will sort that out for you .....re tonight/tomorrow...the latest NMM output should be out soon, and I'm intrigued as to what delights/let downs that it has in store for us...The 12z was bullish is developing some very heavy ppn out of the low countries tonight, and they inferred plenty of elevated convection hence my thoughts on a possible MCS...anyhoos, eye's down shortly!
  15. A.J
    I would kindly suggest that you pm a member of the site team Lewis, rather than take issue here....let's get back on topic, shall we?....cheers
  16. A.J
    This 2011-12 winter really is dragging on now....I'm really looking forward to the spring & summer
  17. A.J
    not much joy here today interms of convective ppn...a couple of light showers with all the heavy thundery stuff just missing me.....great if you like dry, not so great if you like thundery stuff
  18. A.J
    A few charts from the NW Extra NMM outputs.....By the way, it's really worth subscibing to the service, it's cheap, damned concise and without doubt the best collection of weather data/charts you can lay your hands on this side of the Andromeda galaxy!) Snapshot from 05z tommorrow, based on today's 12z output (bare in mind, it's just one model run, so subject to subtle/not so subtle change!
  19. A.J
    Wikipedia mate Thanks for the compliment but I'm no expert, some far more learned on here than me!....I've just gleaned a bit of knowledge of the last few years on here from using the NW guides and reading/learning from the experts like Nick Finnis, Brickfielder and our resident tornado chasing nutter 'The Sherminator' ...(and before he pm's me with loads of abuse, W09...lol, just kidding)
  20. A.J
    just been having a perusal at the NMM hi-res model output and it looks quite promising for some elevated convection/storms, (possibly even an MCS to develop) to drift up from the near continent and push NWwards across East Anglia, East Midlands overnight into NW parts of England through tomorrow morning...Some high theta-e air advecting northwards from the near continent in association with plenty of MLCAPE and 4 layer Lift, decent moisture levels and even some deep layer shear....I would imagine the CF and attendent colder pool of upper air will help steepen mid-level lapse rates aid storm development
  21. A.J
    warm & sunny here with broken cloud..currently 21.5C......quite a lot of rapid convection, but staying dry for the mo...the encroaching CF from the west should provide some heavier showery ppn in the next couple of hours and then it will be worth keeping an eye on what fires up over north France later on as this will run either along or just ahead of the CF which pivots overnight to lay broadly across our region
  22. A.J
    You know it makes sense!
  23. A.J
    Currently cloudy & drizzly..rather humid too....all in all, pants!
  24. A.J
    aren't they blokes that fix very small cars?
  25. A.J
    Microsoft Encarta 1997 Edition & The Children's Illustrated Book On Space 1974 Edition actually...get your facts right
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