A.J

the current state of play re. lightning strikes

plenty of time for that to change matey!

The worst has just slipped to the south of me, heading for Cannock & Brownhills...still, not too bad...a nice little bow shape on radar and look squite well organized..

It's looking good here in Penkridge (about 8 miles NW of Wolverhampton.....a nice little storm which has been rumbling away for 30 mins or so....unfortunately not very photo/videogenic....but some quite loud rumbles and a few mins of intense rainfall, not too shabby at all, and hopefully more to come!

edit...rumbling away nicely to my west now....happy days!

according to radar a new thunderstorm has fired about 10 miles to my west, trundling down the A5, should be here shortly if it holds together

done that line in here a million times...Do try and learn some new material...lol....(just kidding!)

Already quite active in western parts, with 3 thunderstorms currently on the welsh borders near Oswestry in the NW Midlands, another just to the NE near Whitchurch and near Church Stretton, Salops...both quite active...Also a thunderstorm to the east of Worcester, heading towards Stratford...Storms in those regions have a roughly west to east motion

look to your north, you may catch a flash or two......all quiet again here.....for the moment!

Chaps, I 've just seen 3 flashes of lightning to my NE, looks like the cell nr Abbots Bromley moving towards Uttoxeter. No thunder heard as it's too far away (at least 15 miles) but it did give an absolute deluge here around 30 mins ago...Anyhoos, a nice little late birthday treat, and judging by some of your posts to my SW (where showers are coming from) it may not be over yet!

Some thunderstorms now over south wales & the western part of the Bristol Channel....they are moving NE, the question from my perspective is can they reach the west midlands before dying out....probably not, but I'll still watch the radar anyway!

yep, camera on charge currently.....I might slip out for a birthday chase today (I'm 21 for the second time, work it out ) so a big storm would round off the day nicely!

not a bad day all in all...some milky sunshine, dry & feeling quite warm and humid

feel a bit robbed to be honest....nice storms to my north, nice storms to my south now over birmingham, and I'm here in the middle, with naff all, apart from the kids to look after, so can't chase....very frustrating!

thunderstorm about 5-10 miles to my north over stafford....can hear some faint rumbles as it drifts away to the NE...close, but no cigar

now some of the cloud in the foreground cloud has shifted, I can see it now, nice updrafts along it's southern flank...something developing overhead now, big drops of rain,

radar shows a pretty active thunderstorm about 10-15 miles to my NW, have been outside but sky looks fairly clear in that direction...is the radar out of synch or something?.....confused.com!

I actually heard whispers & rumours that storms would fire slightly further west, through Worcester, Birmingham & especially Stafford, with possible supercells firing north of Wolverhampton, towards Cannock & Penkridge (which is right on my front door step) !!!!..... (Actually, I must admit, those rumours & whispers were the voices in my head...I just wanted to feel better momentarily!.... )

Well, I've been working down near Northampton this morning, and the signs of storms to come were there, plenty of towering Ac Cas signalling quite strong mid-level convection, I drive back to the west midlands thinking positive thoughts and what do I arrive home to? low cloud, drizzle and 20 piffling degrees, an absolute shocker of a day here...We've been stuck under this cool & clammy front for 3 days now, with little rain and featureless skies and I'm frankly sick of it!!........For those in the SE having the storms that we were forecast, may your routers be struck by lightning so you can't post any more...Me? I'm not bitter!!!

storm set-ups are so difficult to forecast accurately...I remember the UKASF forecast for June 28th kept my area to the east of a decaying MCS over Wales & Ireland, and to the west of possible severe storms & supercells, the actual result being that just a few subtle changes in the atmospheric conditions resulted in being directly under a very active MCS on June 28th which morphed into surface based severe thunderstorms and even spawned a right moving supercell and attendant tornado over Lincolnshire (Not a dig at UKASF by the way, Dan & the team do a great job and are much respected, rather I've posted the above to show that sometimes even the very best forecasts can't guarantee 100% accuracy) Re. tomorrow, I'm more for pinning my hopes with possible elevated convection along the frontal boundary for the west midlands re. Ian Fergusson's posts.... surface based strong storms for us are a possibiity, but we'd be looking for the frontal wave to be a few miles further north than currently forecasted

Thanks Ian, you've just made my day with that!

Nibiru....what a load of complete rubbish!...good grief! Back to video...to be honest, I can't see anything unusual, just a cloud passing in front of the sun, and some cloud reflecting sunlight....Have I missed something?

In a word, no......moisture rich high theta-e air will continue to pump overnight from the SW approaches so that pulses of heavy thundery rain will continue to develop and train NEwards along the front....Always the chance of some elevated convection giving a high based light display for the lucky few Nick's lurking around the thread, so head's up for an incoming in-depth forecast (hopefully!)

...and from the west midands!

It seems that others don't unfortunately and are too quick to criticize, it's a long running issue on these boards sadly.. Anyhoos, eyes down to the south west to see what develops