A.J

I feel a bit sorry for the folk queuing up on the A5 on their way to the V-fest at Weston Park...hope they brought their waterproof macs and welly boots...lol

The warnings have been in force, not just from the met-office, but NetWeather, Estofex and other meteorological/media outlets because there is a risk of severe weather because of atmospheric parameters in place...please take note of the word 'risk', so I think thinly veiled criticism is not really warranted chaps

You learn something everyday!...lol Interesting forecast from Estofex.....For satuday,definite possibilites for some thunderstorms to develop through the spine of England near the boundary of a quasi-stationary cold front should cloud break enough to allow insolation...High pressure ridging in from the near continent will probably result in too stronger cap for convection in the south east on saturday despite high SBCAPE & lift...although extra forcing from surface convergence could result in a rogue shower/storm over East Anglia

anaprop...an acronym for Anomalous Propagation....false radar returns normally caused by refraction.. 'nanoprops' on the other hand sounds like some futuristic miniaturized propulsion system...lol

scary stuff though mate! Storms firing along the CF now, and training north/northeastwards, looks good for the midlands as the WF is moving north away from us, leaving us in the warm sector as the in-situ theta plume destabilzes

..what were you flying back on, the space shuttle?!!...1300 mph would infer a jet stream velocity of 700 mph, surely impossible! definitely sperious ground speed measurement! back on topic.....showery rain here, the main batch is slowly pushing towards here

Your missing the bigger picture bud....Atmospheric parameters are falling into place for rapid development...watch this space over the next few hours

They start early..Are the pubs open now then?...lol

just ran a radar loop for the past 20 minutes and my cell has erupted from nothing in that time....Cells are running south to north, and another interesting clump of elevated cells are moving into Birmingham as I type, heading straight for us....The main band of persistant rain is still 70-100 miles to our south,so these current developments are very encouraging not just to us but especially so for areas north and into the north of England

in fact, just to add....just looked at the radar for the first time today (i've just got up...lol) and very interesting...looks like some elevated cells are breaking out ahead of the main band..cells quite close to my location (20 miles or so to my east & south)....a repeat of june 28th?? another edit...lol.....now absolutely belting down with rain from an elevated cell & yes, a rumble of high based thunder...woohoo!!

similar here....embedded Tcu in amongst a lot of mid-level convection, and quite a blustery ESE wind...looking rather ominous.....

My mum's recently moved to Sleaford, lincolnshire to enjoy her retirement...Maybe I'll visit her tomorrow...lol I can envisage the conservation... "Son, how lovely to see you...Aw, have you brought the grandchildren with you?" Me: "Grandchildren?....Nah, I've come here for supercells, tornadoes, & very large hail!!"

Mother nature might well throw a lot of stuff at us tomorrow, but I think even she might struggle to conjure up bright purple & yellow polka dot cloud tops on demand for you!

must admit I'd be somewhat sceptical reading reports of seeing lightning from 100 miles distance, so I've just popped outside, and sure enough saw 3 flashes to NNW in about 5 minutes, and I'm just 10 miles north of Wolverhampton!!...Flashes must be at least 80 miles away...astonishing!

.....Give me strength!!....What a daft thing to post mate....There is plenty of interest, due in part to your 'heads up'...This specialist thread is proof of that!.... so with that in mind, get that bee out of your bonnet and start posting!!

Wednesday's looking good for possible severe weather John, no doubts about that at all, but I'm referring to Gavin's posted charts for next sunday

Your post is inaccurate I'm afraid.....whilst the charts posted show lots of surface layer CAPE & lift, the question is 'wheres the trigger?'.....There is a strong cap in place meaning air will only rise to the level of the cap and 'pfft'..nothing....Also check the air pressure charts....As you will see, the SE is under a ridge of high pressure, meaning air wants to sink.....The PPN charts you posted show a big blank throughout most of the UK, that's the clue you need to take note of....You can have all the CAPE & lift in the world, but sinking air & no trigger and you'll barely get a cloud in the sky

I was pulling your leg.......TBH as already posted, if those charts verified then it would be hot & that's just about it with not so much a cap in place, rather a lead & concrete composite barrier in the sky, surrounded by mine fields with large signs reading 'Trespassing rising air will be destroyed'...lol

Evidence for this?......or rather a glass half empty post that requires activation of the 'whiners' thread?

Nice thunderstorm near the Channel Isles...it's headed for the south coast somewhere in the area of Bournemouth to Southampton, worth keeping an eye on for folks on the south coast in the next couple of hours

A bit of a bust for us storm-wise today sadly, but some really good potential for the next few days, and if severe weather is your 'thang' then check out the charts, and posts from our very own midlands regional storm nut Weather09 in the model output & convective threads...looks tasty indeed!

Re. thunder chances......That's an odd interpretation of the synoptics Gavin....I'd be more interested to see the ML CAPE and 4 layer lapse rate charts show...As Weather09 posted, WWA (Warm air advection) and multi-layer shear would encourage initially elevated convection in the frontal zone with directional shear encouraging the potential of severe thunderstorms if any storms root in the moisture rich boundary layer

Certainly am mate!...things are destablizing nicely....am very encouraged to see new elevated cells erupting along the southern/SE part of the trough...lots of sferics

Yes The echoes over Anglesey are anaprop i.e false returns...It's been showing up there for several months Shrewsbury looks a good spot for later on this morning into this afternoon

What did Beelzebub say when he got struck by a bolt of lightning in Hades?........ "Fork-ing hell!".....lol I'll fetch me coat