A.J

yes, hopefully any more substantial rain will move away during the morning, but Mark may well be right

*ahem*.....IS ANYBODY OUT THERE?

loses the plot, or spots a new trend?......a 'remarkable' run for sure, the way the HP block from T192-252 gets blasted over 1500 miles within 60 hours south-eastwards into central Europe seems implausible to me!

AJ felt like a bit of a dick for not checking the NetWeather snow forecast!

looks like they're starting to show signs of losing intensity as they move into Midlands, but should still provide some heavy rainfall for some parts

Having a few probs accessing the forum the past 30 mins....a few '503 time outs' and when I do get in, pages are taking a long time to load

A timely reminder...The title of the thread is "The Model Output Discussion" ....i.e discussing what the model outputs are showing, not for a "who's the best poster" competition.... All contributions are welcome in here as long as they are on-topic. Note the key phrase "On-Topic".....Have a look through todays posts and count the amount of on-topic posts...Not very many....So the best advice is this...If you like a post click the 'like' button, no need to post unless one has something on-topic to add.....If you don't like a post, again, no need to post, unless one has something on-topic to add....If one finds a post containing questionable material against the forum posting guidlines, then hit the 'report' button..... It's not a hard concept to grasp, yet it's amazing how many times it has to be repeated in this thread every winter, and yet some people still just don't get it!!

Don't worry mild lovers, the 12z GFS is a notoriously unreliable run and as it's not showing a Bartlett HP then we can confidently bin it....Apparently it's using lead balloon data I've been reliably informed from an unnamed source......... ....I'm joking! (before anyone comes on and flames me...lol) after the warm up in the reliable time frame thanks to an incumbent LP near the Azores, things start to spice up in FI with a northerly incursion followed by HP blocking to the NW of the UK allowing a chilly easterly to set up seeing temps drop across the UK as the NE Europe cold pool creeps towards the UK, and in the far reaches of FI a new LP (ex-tropical?) steams in from the SW under the block to give some parts of the UK a first taste of the white stuff......Pure conjecture of course at this point, but enough to send 'Coldies' into raptures!

The fairly straightforward explanation is that weather modelling uses vast amounts of computer processing power with incredibly complex & intricate mathematical/algorithmic calculations meaning that even a miniscule change in just one parameter at T+6 can have a huge knock on effect deeper into the calculations for subsequent time frames. Until the technologies of Quantum computing becomes advanced enough to be able to ditch parallel processing (that is currently used), the present infrastructure for weather modelling is about as good as its going to get

So let me see if I've understood correctly what's been previously posted.....If the 06z runs mirrors the 00z (ie showing synoptic patterns that gets cold lovers interested) then we should pay close attention to it....If, however, the 06z differs from the 00z run then we should ignore it because it's an 'unreliable' run.......hmm....interesting

Good work, as ever Tony A chilly cloudy day today with occasional light showers in a light to moderate breeze....Some potentially heavy rain and some wind to come overnight, though tomorrow doesn't look too bad

Just wondering if there's any chance of discussion on the Winter of 2012/13 as per the thread title, as I've just wasted 30 minutes of my life reading post after post of 'My dads better than your dad' point scoring rubbish. Sorry chaps, but agree to disagree and move on, or start your own relevant threads/PM's but to be honest I'm sure I'm not the only member who's fed up to the back teeth of these off-topic arguments...Can't we just talk about the forthcoming winter and just all get along?......cheers

A nice morning here, plenty of sunshine, but on the chilly side, the chance of a shower this afternoon.....Moving into the new week, Sunday, Monday & Tuesday look ok, but wednesday onwards, a spell of very unsettled weather with outbreaks of heavy rain and wind is on the cards

not a bad day today in the end, managed to avoid the heavy showers although a few nice anvils with hail streaks looked to be prowling through the north Birmingham area.....Tomorrow looks ok at first glance, but then the models are suggesting a potentially very wet spell late tomorrow evening through Friday, see the NetWeather Warnings page for more details

I kind of agree with Robbie's post giving some credence to the CFS model for spotting long term trends, but I also find myself agreeing with your points as well!.....and TBH It's reassuring to know that I'm not the only one who believes firmly in the 'chaos theory' aspect of weather forecasting. I think I'll keep things simple this winter by looking at the various short/mid range model output (in particular at timescales of T100 - T240) to get an idea of possible trends (which may well have a decent predictive percentage of accuracy) and keeping tabs on Stratospheric temperatures (again purely for the possible 'knock-in' effect that for example SW can have)

Solid post Tony, worthy of a thumbs up IMHO,

yeah, got very dark to my north and east around 5pm, but skirted around us

mainly dry here today Mark....that's the nature of showers, very much hit and miss.....

??.....based on what forecast?......Rain will clear early tomorrow to be replaced by some showers.....even the hi-res models are showing nothing like what we had yesterday

Yes, it's reached here now, a steady, soaking rain, looks like several hours worth to come, certainly worrying times for midlands areas to our south, such as Worcester, Tewekesbury & Gloucester with the Severn & Avon channeling all this rainfall

being 30 or so miles north of me, I reckon you're in a prime spot to get plenty more rain in the next 24 hours or so...Touch and go here though, the main band might just stay to my north and NW if I'm lucky...as I work outdoors, I need this rain to bugger off, or no income!

Hi bud, yes, drying up here now....just posted in the main event thread that weather stations within 20 miles of us are reporting 30-60mm of rain since midnight, I can well believe it.....It's touch and go whether or not we're 'in the clear' now or whether the pivot will push us back into the rain band as the LP centre drifts west and then southwards

local weather stations (within a 20 mile radius of me) are widely showing rainfall accumulations of between 30 & 60mm since midnight...very wet indeed

Rain has cleared to my north now, just waiting to see if the wraparound sinks back into our region later on and into tomorrow

yes, still a couple of hours or so of moderate/heavy rain to come for sure, and then eyes will be glued to the radar to see where this band stalls and pivots. If we're lucky, we'll be to the south in the clearer air...if not, well, extra long wellies will be needed for us!