A.J

which part of the meto site are you looking at?......I'm looking at the predictive rainfall radar map for our region and all it shows is the lightest of showers tomorrow morning, tomorrow being essentially dry

Thick fog here, & given that we're into the afternoon, it's unlikely to clear me thinks...bitterly cold to boot!

windscreen splat test....never fails

early days, but here in Lyneham nr Chippenham, that's very encouraging news

the Oberservers book of Astronomy, possibly the best pocket book ever printed!

How very sad, and a huge loss....I still have my very first astronomy book 'The Concise Atlas of the Universe' written by Sir Patrick way back in 1973 when I was just a small child, yet it was that book that sparked my thirst for astronomy, a thirst that is still there!. ..Thank you Sir Patrick for your huge inspiration, and rest assured, your legacy and influence will live on for many generations,

good to hear you guys are having a cracking night in MK....I'm stuck 50 miles away, a bit brassick but still lifting a pint glass of Speckled Hen in salute!

Cross posted from the MOD thread with the SE in mind....

Just to back up what John Pike & Tony (GTLTW) have been touching on, don't get too despondant on individual model runs or indeed on the thoughts of individual posters. There are several posters on NW who are highly regarded and some of them post with a particular emphasis to certain types of synoptic patterns and it's best to take all into account to get a totally unbiased and thus better stance of the output But as we all know, the model output doesn't dictate the weather, model output is based on data and readings fed into supercomputers which use complex algorithms to give a predictive analysis of future weather patterns, the key word being predicitve, not guranteed. As some have alluded to in the various threads today, whilst some model output today has looked poor in terms of the predicted modelled easterly outbreak, trying to say that computer generated model outputs ensure that the weather for 5 days time is set in stone is risky to say the least..... Model outputs are a good forecasting tool, hence the reason they are used, but at best only give synoptics with a decreasing verification percentage the further into the future they model, and with winter synoptics generally more mobile than summer synoptics, the verification percentages drop off more rapidly So with that in mind, don't get 'hacked off' at what is simply a complex computer algorithm, what I do is treat all output post T72-96 with a pinch of salt and wait until the synoptic patterns move into this time frame to get a more accurate reading on what weather is likey to be experienced

okey dokey....time for a new shiny thread..... -------------------> locking this one shortly

Ok, carry on here old thred here -------------------->

Phwoooar, modeltastic, orgasmic, 100% verification chance..... and only T+1848 hours away....I'm counting those seconds by, COUNTING THEM!!!

okey dokey, new thread here ---------------> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75208-southwest-central-southern-england-regional-discussion/ locking this one now

Good to hear the upbeat mood in this thread....repeat after me... IT WILL SNOW! and with that in mind, I'll open up a fresh new thread shortly......

A strong squall has just passed through here with associated torrential rain, no wintryness to report though

Can we please keep it on topic and dispense with the 'throw away' one liners that add nothing & detract from an otherwise absorbing thread....Ta!

just got home from Banbury, and drove back over the Cotswold through Stow, no wintryness, just plain old rain...The windscreen splat test never lies

you can pick any day of the year and you'll STILL get stuck on the M25....lol

yes BD, after the main band passes, another batch of showers will swing south/south easterly across the region...atmospheric parameters are more conducive to ppn of a wintry theme in the post frontal air mass

The same question was asked in the SW & CS England thread, so I'll repost here what I posted there as an attempted explanation as to why rainfall is more likely... ... the latest NMM hi-res model is hot off the press and its output suggest why snow is unlikely anywhere in our region....The main area of ppn sweeps through our region between 2000z and 0100z, and the atmospheric parameters in place as modelled are not conducive to snowfall expect perhaps a wintry mix on top of the cotswolds..... My understanding is that the T850 temperatures are on the high side, around -1c, atmospheric thickness between the 500hpa & 1000 hpa boundaries have DAM values in the 530's, meaning in laymans terms, the air between these boundaries is warmer (relatively speaking) the difference in temperatures & altitude between the boundaries is greater than required parameters for a snowfall event (the greater the difference in altitude, the more warmer air the ppn has to fall through....the lower the DAM value, the closer to ground level the T500/850/1000 boundaries are, the cooler the lower air is). Dew Points and web bulb temperatures also have postive values throughout the duration of the event, and the 0c isotherm is up at neary 1000 meters throughout the event. It's possible if there are heavier bursts of ppn that the 0c isotherm could be lowered due to evaporated cooling, hence the outside sniff of wintry ppn on top of the cotswolds... Of course, this little analysis is based on one run, there could be subtle changes in atmospeheric conditions over the next 12 hours Just to add, for the SE region, the parameters and timings will be slightly differenct as the above post was 'geared' towards the west country thread. Anyhoos, hope this helps

Hi Shaun....the latest NMM hi-res model is hot off the press and its output suggest why snow is unlikely anywhere in our region....The main area of ppn sweeps through our region between 2000z and 0100z, and the atmospheric parameters in place as modelled are not conducive to snowfall expect perhaps a wintry mix on top of the cotswolds..... My understanding is that the T850 temperatures are on the high side, around -1c, atmospheric thickness between the 500hpa & 1000 hpa boundaries have DAM values in the 530's, meaning in laymans terms, the air between these boundaries is warmer (relatively speaking) the difference in temperatures & altitude between the boundaries is greater than required parameters for a snowfall event (the greater the difference in altitude, the more warmer air the ppn has to fall through....the lower the DAM value, the closer to ground level the T500/850/1000 boundaries are, the cooler the lower air is). Dew Points and web bulb temperatures also have postive values throughout the duration of the event, and the 0c isotherm is up at neary 1000 meters throughout the event. It's possible if there are heavier bursts of ppn that the 0c isotherm could be lowered due to evaporated cooling, hence the outside sniff of wintry ppn on top of the cotswolds... Of course, this little analysis is based on one run, there could be subtle changes in atmospeheric conditions over the next 12 hours

morning chaps & ladies.....What a marathon thread 100+ pages, good stuff! Okey dokey, time for a new thread, which can be found here Locking this one shortly

Here's a fresh thread for you all Old thread here

Don't fall into the trap that many do on here and compare consecutive model runs ..i.e 12z then 18z....different data sets are used....You're far better off comparing like for like, i.e 12z to T24 12z, or compare the 12 hourly outputs,to get a better handle of whether or not the synoptic patterns are changing either for the better or worse

I've just got home from work, and looked at the day's outputs, and then looked further into F1, and I don't know what the fuss is all about...Redbull stuff Ferrari, same old, same old.....