A.J

I'm wearing a padded white coat....the voices in my head tell me I'll fit in just fine! I remember Nov 2005, driving back from Falmouth to Brixham....and being stuck for 10 hours in the middle of the night on top of Bodmin Moor in a blizzard....When it snows Luke, it snows good!

I'm seeking solace here amongst the sane folk of this fine thread, as the MOD has done my head in tonight!

Some unbelievable posts in this thread this evening. Some of you should know better and are setting a shockingly bad example to new members/posters....For goodness sake, stop the bickering and sniping/pointless one liners which add nothing and debate constructively and on topic......Heed the advice and warnings from the site team or some will find themselves posting soley on TWO by the morning!

with volatile outputs from the various model agencies, I'd put FI at T72-T96......it's the usual knee jerk reaction in the MOD with members not waiting until the run completes and even then not waiting for the ens which will paint a truer reflection on the output....So please, put the prozac back in the drawer.....take deep long breaths......and out.....and in again.......and out......feel better?...lol

Welcome aboard Ian!........Re. snow potential.....a few cm's over Dartmoor (especially with your elevation) on saturday into sunday morning, and if ECM12z verifies, I would expect substantial accumulations over the moors

blimey it's quiet in here....I'd have thought most of you would be wetting yourselves in excitement at the prospect of snowy Saturday!

In the more reliable time frame (up to T96) The 12z output favours a stronger signal for wintry ppn for parts of the midlands and central southern England...The undercutting LP packs a lower CP allowing a stronger pressure gradient....The result being a stronger easterly to north easterly draw sweeping more frigid air in from the near continent...Less marginal to my eyes, more conducive to possible disruptive snow saturday pm/overnight

A shame members just can't take a hint Pete....Even though the thread title is self explantory, certain members still have trouble understanding plain English..... Oh well back to the Model Output Discussion!

Ah, I see where you're coming from

just to touch on the highlighted part.....an odd post IMO, who are you referring too?.....It seems that most posters in here are aware that the model output is volatile currently and any forecasts are likely to have low verification confidence.....or have I misread your post?

oh my goodness, it's the end of the world!...one gfs run, minus balloon data of course, is no longer showing an almost supernatural strength easterly straight from the bowels of deepest darkest Siberia!....Can someone pass me a very blunt knife please?...My ankles need slashing!

A few members seriously need to chill out and relax!......Smoke a Jamaican woodbine, or pop a strong pill or two...lol...so, where are we at the moment?...well to my rather untrained eye, ...06z GFS throws a bit of a curveball our way fit and puts us in rPM flow from T132-T174 (the latest frame)...an interesting development, would lead to interesting weather at that time frame if verified (heavy thundery showers for a start).....but as with all output post T96, worth taking with a large pinch of salt currently, models are flip-flopping and falling over currently, so yes, worth noting, but not worth braking out the prozac at this juncture.....especially not worth working up a sweat on until the ens come out (and worth noting the 06z run doesn't have balloon data)

lol....06z GFS throws a hissy fit and puts us in rPM flow from T132-T174 (the latest frame)...an interesting development, would lead to interesting weather at that time frame if verified (heavy thundery showers for a start).....but as with all output post T96, worth taking with a large pinch of salt currently, models are flip-flopping and falling over currently, so yes, worth noting, but not worth braking out the prozac at this juncture.....especially not worth working up a sweat on until the ens come out (and worth noting the 06z run doesn't have balloon data)

Just a reminder that this is the Model Output Discussion thread......Quite a few off topic posts creeping in....think before posting...ta!

Just to add...GFS ppn charts need to be taken with a very large pinch of salt at this range....More prudent to wait until the higher resolution models come into range (T48 - T0)

It's a shame good old 'dogs32' isn't around anymore, he love the chance of posting....."great charts tonight, 2ft dumpings by next week!"...lol

......and moving along back to the regional weather discussion.......thanks

I've directed my browser to this thread to view the model output discussion, but instead find myself viewing a soap opera about the various merits and stresses of moving house....All very interesting I'm sure, but hardly on topic......with that in mind can we please get back to discussing the models and leave other comments to other more relevant threads.....ta!

Highly recommended reading Tony, if you fancy a good laugh...lol......It kept me thoroughly entertained for a good hour watching the wheels come off and seeing members mentally disintegrate!

yep, you lot are on something!

what is it with all these sarf-eastern 'foreigners' invading our thread?....oi....get arf moi laaaaaand!

It ties in with a post Ian Fergusson made a couple or so days ago hinting that there are signals for a possible pattern change early to mid January....just to side track a moment, it's been rather frustrating reading this thread the past few days, and I understand that the majority of posters want to see cold synoptics and current model output is thus frustrating to those, but from what I've read earlier this winter, from the likes of GP (with his excellent winter forecast) Ed, Phil, Lorenzo to name a few, this winter so far seems to be going to plan.....a mild, wet push mid to late December was forecasted with an above average chance of a pattern change to colder synoptics into January.....To those members, keep up the good work!

It's been dreadsful here.....Steady rain overnight and into this morning, and a recent squall line type feature has passed through, the A3102 Lyneham to Wootton Bassett road is flooded which is unusual, a pretty horrific and scarey drive back on it from Swindon!

Afternoon folks.....Just for folks who can't differentiate between FI & F1.........Interesting news from the world of Grand Prix racing.........Just had a wonderful xmas present from Bernie Ecclestone...the new CFS sponsored F1 Calendar for 2013..... January.... February..... March..... bring on March!!

Well, work is finished, the 12 days of christmas starts for me....no french hens, but shed loads of 'speckled hens'....lol...... Fingers crossed tomorrow's rain has been over-cooked, and no folk suffer more flooding