A.J

Hi SB...spectral analysis of Tau Ceti suggests that planets are unlikely to be rocky because it's a metal difficient star......but that's not to say that there is no chance of rocky terrestrial planets......Re. habitable zone, looks like it's between 0.3AU & 0.8AU....My own thoughts are that discovery is very exciting, and hopefully might sooner rather than later kickstart some serious funding into future interstellar propulsion research as the Tau Ceti system is crying out to be explored!

bang on..... Not a lot of people know this, but it's also the wailing sound that 'coldies' make when the model output shows blow torch south westerlies over the entire country for days on end!

yes it heading across Salisbury Plain to my neck of the woods, probably in the next hour or so....Looks very wet in some parts....Fingers crossed though that the ppn remains patchy though....some areas seeing mainly light rain, hopefully these areas will include those under flood warnings so they escape the worst of the overnight rain

Another planetary system tentatively discovered, not by the Kepler Telescope, but this is the best thread for it... ok, this is exciting, as astronomers have an unconformed detection of 5 exoplanets orbiting Tau Ceti around 12 light years away from our solar system. What's exciting is that Tau Ceti is a sun-analog (spectral; class 'G') and one of the exoplanets is speculated to lay inside its parent star's habitable zone, the planet having an estimated mass between 2 & 6 earth masses. The only downside is that if this discovery is confirmed, it's unlikely that the exoplanet in question is a terrestrial rocky planet, as Tau Ceti, despite being sun-like, seems to be deficient in metallic elements compared to the sun, making the formation of rocky type planets unlikely, more likely either a water-world, or a Neptunian type planet (small gas giant)...Still an exciting discovery in its preliminary stages with no doubt more news to come

Yes, it dropped to -1C here with ice on cars, pavements and on the grass, I really didn't expect temps to drop this low...As you posted, temps are on the rise from the south west as the frontal system encroaches and by the time rain fall reaches all parts of the region, temps and dewpoints will be well above freezing, at least ice & possible wintryness won't be an issue.

Yes, I'm sure we've all got our fingers crossed that areas which have suffered over the past few weeks remain unscathed over the next few days, sadly this seems unlikely at this juncture, but I'm sure any members in our region who do suffer from flooding issues will no doubt not only have the support of their neighbours and families, but will also have the support of all NW members in the south-west region

don't forget to add tucking into gargantuous quantities of food and drinking enough booze to sink a battleship...When that occurs, who gives a stuff what's happening outside...lol

thanks for the update, it looks horrible doesn't it?.........Interesting developments re. frontal wave, Ian F alluded to it earlier I think, and the other hi-res output (NMM) has it pushing up from the SSW tomorrow night and into thursday, and it looks like it's that wave feature that will cause the major issues

It certainly is a bit chilly around the willy out there Tony (I really ought to put some clothes on before venturing outside...lol).....Tomorrow looks just awful, and I'm really hoping the hi-res models have over cooked the ppn totals to spare the otherwise inevitable flooding issues

I just had a cup of tea and a slice of cake...really tasty....sadly, I've a bit of a headache, but 2 aspirin should sort that out....Oh, and the TV's crap tonight.........you might all be wondering why I've posted this, well, it has one thing common with the majority of posts in the last page or so...It's totally off topic.....So, with that in mind, let's move the discussion back towards the model output, especially with the GFS18z about to commence....cheers

Sorry for cutting you off in mid flow!....I didn't see you typing away!......cut & paste it across if you want

okey dokey, this thread is now plucked, stuffed & cooked, so here's a raw, fresh one for y'all ----------> locking this one now

Ok, a nice, clean & polished thread for you all, so carry on here old thread can be found here --------->

Well, if...and it's a big if, 12z GFS output verifies then parts of our region could have a white christmas!....A long way to go though, but the possibilities are there...and bedsides 'tis the season to be snowy, tra-la-la la-lah, la-la-la-lah....lol....A few charts to illustrate...

A funny old day of conflicting model output, and a funny old day of conflicting model output discussion. For us less learned members, here's a neat little summary for you for the anticipated modelled weather for 7-10 days time according to model thread posts made today It might rain, then again it might snow.......It might be dry, then again it might be wet......It might be cold, then again it might be mild, an cold easterly or northerly might be on the cards, then again blow torch south westerlies might rule supreme.... With all this confliction, my head is spinning, I might be going insane!

A few thunderstorms have broken out in southern most counties, Southampton & surrounding areas have recently had a lively line of cells pass over giving some torrential rain, hail, as well as thunder & lightning. This line of showers/storms are drifting ENE towards Surrey & the London area. Another line of active cells are out in the English Channel heading towards Sussex & Kent......with further heavy showers developing out in the South West approaches

A quality post, a lot of thought & time has obviously gone into it....Keep up the good work

We've got it now Andy, just in time for picking the kids up from school....and, we've just got back home and the school is flooded!...literally rivers of water running down the roads and banks, rainfall of tropical intensity!

Some very heavy if not torrential rain moving up through somerset & dorset towards wilts, very bright echoes on radar, this has the potential for some flash flooding considering saturated fields etc etc

judging by the 12z output, sometime in 2013...lol

maybe I'll license it.....for a small fee of course....lol

no, light sleet is Slizzle â„¢ ....and I invented that name in the Midlands regional thread 3 years ago.....and I will sue if necessary

maybe a bit more widespread Nick.....See Ian F's recent post

They have been forecast on today's hi-res runs to develop this evening, running NWwards at the moment, and then to become slightly more organized and pushed more North & NE through the early hours leaving a few lucky places (more likely the Mendips/Blackdown Hills and parts of Wilts) with a dusting by breakfast time.....not much, but I'll take anything right now!

ahh...see what you mean!.....I think it's a bit over egged though, a slight dusting perhaps for the blackdown hills, none of the model outputs show anything more than just the slightest hint of a dusting.....Of course, these are the same models that were predicting a long lasting beast from the east....lol