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A.J

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Everything posted by A.J

  1. A.J
    nothing heard here sadly...just moderate rain which is now clearing away
  2. A.J
    so then, let's see how the pre-storm check list for the West Midlands panned out in the end Convection - check Rainfall - check Thunder - Our Survey said.....X .....Bugger
  3. A.J
    missed out on all the action today....got rather wet in Evesham this morning, drove back the 40 miles or so home in time for the grand prix and it's been dry here since, in fact no rainfall to report today at all here in South Staffs
  4. A.J
    lightning strike detected near Jersey as thundery showers start to develop over northern France and drift into the channel...There's alot of anaprop mixed in with real radar returns in the channel, but the showers can now be seen...also heavy showers breaking out just ahead and on the CF to the west over northern wales and the cheshire plains drifting NEwards, and hints of showers forming over south wales, I say hints because again there's alot of anaprop mixed in with real rainfall radar returns
  5. A.J
    some nice convection bubbling up to my east, some big towers, no doubt responding to some wind convergence running along the spine of the peak district
  6. A.J
    yep, sun has burnt off low cloud and temps have rocketed, now 24C...interestingly a line of convection is bubbling up just to my east, already some quite big towers shooting up
  7. A.J
    A lovely day so far, warm, breezy but very pleasant....Some fair weather cloud is bubbling up but hopefully the cloud from the frontal system straddling the north of the UK will stay away to our north over the next couple of days...Up here though, it might be a bit touch and go though
  8. A.J
    You speak of the GFS model as if it's a living, breathing, sentient being as opposed to the reality of it being simply a computer program comprised of 0's & 1's...lol but it has to be agreed, the output looks poor in the medium turn & in FI for warmth lovers, with low pressure anchored over or near to the UK with a cool, showery pattern evolving...I suppose the glimmer of hope is that FI is generally best guessed synoptics and not written in stone
  9. A.J
    Yes, it's absolutely ridiculous....after all, everyone in the civilized world knows 'godlike' & 'ajpoolshark' are synonymous when uttered with awestruck reverence in this thread MORTALS......Hear thy devine words and tremble in my prescence... 'El Brumo II, III & IV are coming!!' Disclaimer...This is what happens folks when I come in after a hard days graft, quaff half a bottle of red because I'm thirsty & then read some of the silly bickering!....There is no 'elitism' in here, everyone's posts are respected (well, at least I respect 'em) so please, grab yourselves a glass of vino, relax and enjoy what the weather might have to offer us
  10. A.J
    generally cloudy here but DRY!....rain is developing to my east as local convergence sets up but thankfully the showers seemed to be drifting slowly eastwards so hopefully should stay dry
  11. A.J
    cloudy this morning...Looks like we'll be shortly having a spell of mainly lightish rain as it slides down from the north
  12. A.J
    Nice to see you getting a storm this evening...Those cells do look beastly, indeed well organized with PPN spread fanning out ahead thus allowing the storms to maintain strong cores.....South and SW of Brum could yet see a flashes as the heavy showers over mid and west Wales show no sign of losing intenstity...North of Brum (here) things seem fairly benign, an old decaying anvil to my west just giving a light shower of radar and looking at the directional flow we are unlikely to see anything else here sadly
  13. A.J
    lovely cloudscapes to my north...nice big mature Cb's with new flanking updrafts....Looking nice on radar for those underneath them, with torrential rain and some lightning....not heading this way but nice to see some folk in the NW midlands getting some action
  14. A.J
    ...the Fax outputs are showing quite nicely whats happening at the mo.....a trough straddling southern counties giving some heavy showery rain, a cold front straddling central parts, with scattered showers and thunderstorms being enhanced by forcing along the cold front and also by low level convergence over eastern counties, and another trough over eastern parts of Ireland giving some heavy showers with the odd thunderstorm ....FAX chart link... http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=7f6debbe6d6e7522cf0a70b40086ac94
  15. A.J
    Andy, I don't appreciate the 'insulting' tone of your post.....You should very well know that it's tongue-in-cheek...I have NEVER moaned about the weather on this or any other forum, in fact quite the opposite, I make a habit of normally ramping the prospects of exciting weather, if nothing else, to stop the true 'moaners' who frankly make some of these threads painful to read....I am quite frankly annoyed that you've singled out my particular post, yet have not commented on the numerous other genuine 'moaning' posts!!!.......If you would like to discuss this further, please pm me to avoid taking the thread off topic....regards, AJ
  16. A.J
    not according to the lightning detectors there isn't!
  17. A.J
    Just got back from Daventry.....I drove through unbelievably heavy rain near Coleshill...The roads there are flooded (A446/M42 interchange)....Some amazing cloud structure there....I've got some video that I'll upload later lovely cloudscapes with a huge structured anvil overhead, clearer skies to the north then a line of well sheared Cb's on the northern horizon....Anyhoos, the best convective stuff seems over the east Midlands, as usual, looks like the West Midlands breeds them, the east gets 'em..nothing new there then!!!
  18. A.J
    yes, just the one......and guess what Carl?.....It's one more than you'll ever see!..mwahahahaha!!,. joking aside, I guess today is as good a day as any for you to break your 'storm duck' with the current setup in place...good luck!
  19. A.J
    East Midlands, old boy, East Midlands..lol....Us in the West Midlands have been stormed starved, having only had one elevated MCS monster, which whilst pretty intense, was also pretty crap visually due to it being in broad daylight.....Anyhoos, I'm driving down to Northampton in an hour or so, see a few customers and then take a slow drive back home up the A45 this afternoon...Should be a decent route for catching something
  20. A.J
    Nice bow shaped radar return stretching from Taunton to Chard, with some associated lightning..It's developed over the past 45 mins ot so, so areas to the east of this should bare this in mind as there's some torrential rain headed in that direction
  21. A.J
    It's all to my south....nice cloudscapes, vey dark and all that but rather frustrating from my perspective
  22. A.J
    Thats because the LP center over wales is 'sucking' the surface air into its circulation, a bit like water going down a plughole thus creates areas of converging air flow, and your position in relation to the LP center dictates the wind pattern...In our case winds are circulating counter-clockwise around the LP and (with a southerly/SEerly bias) and is meeting the current prevailent northerly air flow over much of the midlands is also being 'sucked' into the circulation causing the convergence, hence, low level winds and cloud formations are moving westwards.....PPN over wales is on the opposite side of the LP centre and wants to rotate counter-clockwise around the LP center whilst the entire LP centre moves slowly ESE.....Sounds a bit complex but it's quite easy to grasp...hope that helps!
  23. A.J
    Hi PS.....the LLC zone is still further north than you suggest...The dead centre is on a line Birmingham - Cambridge - Ipswich with a 25 mile swathe either side of that being the sweet spots for LLC fuelled showers/storms IMHO
  24. A.J
    The showers/storms are over Mid west wales are circulating around the southern/eastern flank of a surface low pressure hence the erratic NE to North movement seen on radar...The model outputs show the LP sinking slowly ESE during the next 24 hours and filling as it does losing its identity by this time tomorrow as it exits the SE corner of the UK..So, I would expect this area of showers/storms to sink ESE whilst continuing to wrap around the LP center
  25. A.J
    Yep....I think you're in a good area AP, ok for me, but need the clearer air to lift northwards a bit yet.....My sweet spot location for today is roughly Worcester to Evesham to Stratford-Upon-Avon for catching a nice storm....A possible chase is in the offing Edit...A nice discrete cell has fired to the west of Worcester drifting slowly northwards
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