A.J

good old Radders lol......I reckon that even if there was cross-model agreement on a major snow event right over your house, you'd still scour the internet for the one model that shows rain, probably something like the Outer Mongolian Forecast Model that uses the practice of staring into a cup of tea leaves to forecast snow, and then post on here that's it's not fair and that it is definitely going to rain because the Mongolian Tea Leaf model says so!

it depends on what NAE overlay you're using IMHO... using the estimated 6 hourly PPN accumulation overlay then it looks way out as you said, but If you look at the NAE 18z T6 PPN type overlay and compare to the actual live radar then in fact the PPN spread is accurate, it's just the intensity if the PPN that's inaccurate...odd!

well so far so good, getting cautiously optimistic (gone up to 7 out of 10 on the ramp scale)..I'm just north of wolverhampton, so looking good atm judging by hi-res modeling...as of tomorrow the models go out of the window and nowcasting/radar watching takes over

Mark, what on earth are you talking about????.....If you think it's moving away from our area (west midlands) then you really need to go to specsavers! :lol:

Blimey, that reminds me, best be careful tomorrow, I'm on the road until about 9pm tomorrow night...Cannock - Daventry - Warwick and back to Cannock :unsure:

Don't normally pay too much attention to the larger scale models at this time range, but I have to admit the ECM is a cracker, the snowfall overlay chart has west midlands under snowfall for over 24 hours!...would be very pleased if that verified!

behave yourself, Mr Mild-Ramp! :lol:

shameless plug for your bike & where's the snow?...lol....I can see a bit of compact dandruff but that's about it!.....So then, that's your reg number is it?...cheers for that, I'll be cloning that bugger tonight, so expect a few speeding tickets, hit & run insurance claims & parking fines coming your way!

Bit of a sweeping statement KW and not strictly true....The west midlands, for example, were forecast,as modeled by the NMM, to have a freezing rain start, turning to snow for no more than a couple of hours changing back to rain, when what actually transpired started as snow, stayed as snow for 8 hours dropped 10cm + of snow, changing to rain very briefly on the back edge, so for our region, it didn't exactly cover itself with glory whereas the NAE was spot on for our region for PPN type and timings....(and I'm a big NMM fan!)

As it stands, it's a 'Triple Threat Match' GEM/UKMO - west......ECM/NAE - middle ground.....NMM/GFS ......further east

I need to sort out my hi-res subs tonight...very interested in checking air temps at various levels....if it's below 0c at the T850 boundary with no warming above (or below) then surely freezing rain is a physical impossibility? Ian, you have two choices... 1) A crash course in Geography or 2) A specsavers appointment beckons :lol:

agreed my man, also on the higher resolution NAE, the parameters are getting better....dewpoints 0C or below, T850's have gone from the wrong side of marginal to marginal or the right side of marginal....The far west of the region (welsh borders has a max T850 of -1C which steadily drops during the PPN of the run)....So, based on this output...east and South/SW of Coventry looks like all snow...west of that area looks like rain/sleet mixture turning to snow IMHO Your right, it will, but the latest output infers that the freezing rain may well stay to the north of our region....close call, that's why I'm not as confident as I was going into last saturday

and the vid?.....about as genuine as Jordan's boobies

Right then...now the NAE is out to T48, and I've gone from not-excited to interested (that's a jump from 1/10/ to 5/10 on the RAMP scale)..it forecasts snowfall as far westwards as the welsh borders and has snowfall sliding SW wards through the midlands into south wales.......yes...hmm....interesting

well, the wife just got from her girlie holiday out east....judging by the vid, she had a great time, just wish she hadn't worn her fur coat whilst salmon fishing....lol

Andy, you've answered your own question....and to add, just as last saturday, bin the lower resolution models and stick to the NMM or NAE, and then tomorrow bin all model output, and radar watch, now-cast, and poke your head out of the window and look up!

based on current output, I just can't get excited for any 'battleground' scenario thursday night/friday, and TBH the thread is in danger of over ramping.....The angle of frontal attack is all wrong, there is good surface cold, but no deep cold pool (uppers are either marginal or the wrong side of marginal) dewpoints & wet bulb temps look too marginal, if anything, for our region I'd be more concerned about freezing rain, especially in the west....with the chance of sleet for lower level of the east midlands, and snow for areas with good elevation in the east midlands.......Of course, subsequent hi-res runs might change the game plan totally and show things as much more favourable, but for now, too many parameters against a snow event for my liking...sorry

already had a few snow grains out of the fog this morning...it's very cold, with mist lifting...and looks to be extremely cold tonight!

Yes, fog has moved in here as well, cold & damp...yuk!

Most of the snow from the back garden has gone now....mind you, building a 7ft tall snowman might have had something to do with it!....lol

The universe doesn't have an edge, at least not in the 3 physical dimensions that we can interact with, so in essence in 4 dimensional space-time, it's not expanding into anything, yet it is expanding at an accelerating rate.....work that one out...lol Just for the record, I'm an advocate of M-theory (the successor to string-theory) with 11 spatial dimensions

It's been raining all afternoon Nick, you know that white flakey looking rain... :winky:

just about come to a stop here now....just a bit of sleety/drizzly stuff.......now to keep the temps down overnight to avoid a thaw

We've had 10cm of snow here in the West Midlands this afternoon, and it's still hammering down with the stuff, and the good news is that it is all coming your way!

Wow, just had my dinner and popped outside for a cheeky cigarette and wow again....snowing very heavily with 10, count 'em, 10cm of laying snow....absolutely fantastic with more to come!!