A.J

I disagree.....sitting on the toilet?...Now that's being perfectly placed for a dumping! (I'll fetch me coat! :ph34r: :lol: )

sorry, I can't feel the crisp crinkling of £10 notes in my palm...lol

Or I could just be a sore loser and delete their entire thread, that'll teach 'em to gloat! ....lol

like most I hate to be wrong, but tonight I'd like mother nature to force me to eat a whole humble pie and give me a snow dumping!...lol

I hate you! :w00t:

Yep, getting ready to right this one off I'm afraid for the W Midlands....PPN far too east and south, milder upper air has encroached to far into the midlands and PPN currently over the midlands is already showing signs of fizzling out.. can't see that mass over eastern parts and the north sea suddenly pivoting and spreading westwards ...hmm, and I'm the eternal optimist, but tonight is not our night I fear....and no I'm not a moaner, far from it, just making a call from the radar & current data observations & analysis

Poor old me, Conor & Radders....folks have snow and we have rain...It's not fair, it so unfair, the Mongolian Tea Leaf Model output promised me snow! :w00t: :w00t:

just had a look at the NW Radar T850 overlay, and if it is to be believed, then it's bad news for all of the west midlands currently as the milder uppers are encroaching even further eastwards...the T850 Oc boundary is now to the east of Birmingham, going against the model outputs from last night and this morning. That in itself is bad news for West Midlands folk, but this really is a nowcast situation, things can change rapidly and some members will see these rapid changes...Whether the changes are good or bad, only time will tell

As requested NMM model snapshots as of 1900 hours....PPN type, T850's and Dew points NMM model snaphots as of 2200hrs with same parameters

thanks for the update....Yes, for the east midlands it looks like snow all the way, for the west midlands it looks like a change over from 1900hrs or so to snow as T850's drop into the negative values, if this particular output verifies

just the wrong side of marginal here currently re. T850's.....pesky warm bubble of air nosing in from the west, thus light but steady rain here, hoping that the output was correct and colder uppers will arrive overnight before PPN peters out

Twitchy bum time for us for the next few hours...will it, or won't it? :wacko:

For goodness sake!...some of you really need to stop being so negative and stop ruining the thread for other folk! For the west midlands, this particular event was ALWAYS forecasted to start off as rain with a switch over to snow overnight...Whether this switch over will actually happens remains to be seen, but to say it's all over before it's barely started is frankly ridiculous, and for future reference, one liner 'whinge' posts may be deleted

The GFS on it's first frame is already miles away from reality....Snowfall already nearly 50-100 miles north & west of where the GFS shows the snowline!!

It's ok, I was bantering hence my rather tongue in cheek post...lol

On the significant snow thread, far too many people are getting caught up in the models IMO....at this stage my plea is bin the models, watch the radar, and poke your head out of the window

W09 said it right last night....when the NAE has snow away from one's area it's rubbish and unreliable, the latest run has snow over one's area and all of a sudden it's the best thing since sliced bread...you've got to chuckle! :lol:

as I posted in the significant snow thread, the NMM prediction for 3pm is actually pretty accurate as far as PPN extent goes, it has however not factored in increased PPN over the north sea...This IMO is good news for the region as a whole, as PPN accumulations might well rise, over a potentially wider area...see my post.. http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2263168

from what I can see comparing a hi-res model such as the current NMM & against live radar then basically the PPN spread/shield is just about where it should be, give or take a few miles...What hasn't been modeled correctly is the PPN intensity, and I think it's this factor that might be leading members up the garden path, so to speak....The frontal system is expected to pivot (as per NMM modeling) and indeed running the hourl frame by frame radar, it appears to be doing just so, but with heavier PPN still out over the north sea...This could well be good news to snow lovers, as PPN amounts might well end up more than forecast and, over a wider area...Just my thoughts

yep, me too....uppers look the wrong side of marginal for snow until well into the night, so freezing rain is a major concern to us west midlanders.....needless to say I'm getting my work supplies soon but have cancelled my afternoon/evening delivery run as I'd like to actually get home some time today!

ah the BBC weather forecast, always good for a giggle....treat with scepticism is my advice and now-cast/radar watch

Well, I definitely have to go to Atherstone (nr Tamworth) to pick up supplies around lunchtime, but I might phone my customers up further south and re-arrange deliveries for tomorrow evening instead TBH.....Radar had PPN developing ahead of the hi-res models projections, and whether it's freezing rain, sleet or snow, it's not good for driving

getting twitchy bum syndrome now as I contemplate my delivery run this afternoon/evening..It could be an horrendous drive.....I'll be in daventry from 4-6 then to warwick from 7-8 before my journey back to staffs....not looking good!

joking aside, you post is in fact a very good post and raises issues that have plagued me before...when Penridge has had a rain/sleet mix only to find that Mark in Stafford (7 miles to my NE) has had inches of snow as has Nick L over in Norton Canes (8 miles to my east) so trust me bud, I know exactly where you're coming from....Re. tomorrow night, I've gone from not being really interested this morning to very interested now....My bets are for a rain/sleet start for us changing to snow as the night progresses leaving accumulating snows by first light

and the scary thing is that the mythical Mongolian Tea Leaf model would probably be more accurate the some of the global/euro models! :lol: