Alex

As a heat / storm lover, favs have to be August 95 for heat and a couple of v decent storms. June 96 for the dry weather apart from the incredible storm - one of the best ever after a spanish plume! Aug 03 for the extreme heat- would love a repeat. We also did well for storms too here! Lots of evening ones. July 06 feeling hot hot hot!!! April 11 I was sitting out in shorts in easter - enough said! July 10 was close for dry weather and managed to loads of summery things! If I would have been alive i'm sure oct 87 for the hurricane and summer 76 would be up there! Add me onto your twitter to get my personal weather views - @alexbweather

Chances seem higher to me this morning of the current heights to our northwest slipping southeastwards, taking residence over Scandinavia before it again slips into mainland Europe, this would slowly bring drier weather into the equation and would eventually bring some warmer uppers so fingers crossed for potentially a touch of spring over Easter? MJO is progged to move into phase 1 which supports a trough to the west of us with heights to our east during late march/early april and a decreasing GLAMM index should help reduce the northern heights. Despite my optimism, I think the ECM is a good example of a energetic change and although the heights slip away, they slip too far away and we are left with the trough not too far to our west. Catch my weather views on my personal twitter: @alexbweather - add me!

Signs of some changes on the models but bigger upstream changes are needed for a pattern change and glamm is still high, although a recent drop along with a shift outside of mjo phases 6-7-8 should help start killing off these northern heights. Like TWS has suggested I expect a better end to March too! http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif Add me on twitter for my personal weather views @alexbweather

I wouldn't be surprised looking at the analogues and the data that I have, if we end up having a average or poor June but with a greatly improved rather hot and dry July (prob best since 2010 or maybe 2006) along with a 2004 or 97 style August so warm and wet. That would be a summer for all. I would still favour another 95 style summer though as SB suggested above. One thing that has been missing in particular during summer months is thunderstorms- June 09 had the last decent one, we had a few last year but nothing too memorable. Check out my weather views on my new twitter account @alexbweather

Thanks pjl, I assume you mean me? I can answer the question above anyway; alot of recent springs ie 2011, 2010, 2007 etc have been characterised by the opposite of what we have now so low angular momentum, an easterly based QBO, negative PDO etc. However we currently have a developing westerly based QBO, neutral PDO and strong angular momentum- along with an active MJO phases 6-7-8 this spells blocking in some form but not in the right place for warmth as we are about to find out. I think if we keep these characteristics into early summer then we will look back at Spring as a mixed bag but this summer will be greatly improved!

It's not too rare in Essex, out of the 14 weekends during summer I reckon more than 50% of weekends are suitable ie dry and with an evening temp of at least 20c. Obviously each year will vary for example during summer 2003 we had barbecues many weekends but the summer of 2007 would of been alot less than normal. Last year was strange as the first half of summer would of consisted of maybe 1-2 weekends but during the remaining 7 weeks - probably 5 or even 6 would of been suitable looking at my records.

I'm not sure what sort of area you live in but it sounds like somewhere I would want to get out of! Tbh I love barbecues and I cannot for the life see why you hate them so much. However I can slightly see your point on people getting a bit too excited on the first sight of some spring sunshine but people are entitled to some enjoyment of quite possibly the most depressing winter ever! I notice you hate sunny warm weather, again something I will never understand. I crave a bit of nice weather where I can walk out in shorts and a t shirt, visit the beach, go to a pub garden, sit out al fresco style etc etc. Maybe your interests don't involve any of the above and each to there own I suppose but I can't imagine why not?

Lovely two sunny spring like days here in Chelmsford. The sun is starting to get stronger now and with the longer days it feels nice! I hope we get more sunny clear days this Spring! Recent springs have been generally very good, I would love another April 2007 or Spring 2011, but in the event of this being most unlikely a 2009 type spring would be perfect, plenty of dry sunny warmish days! 2010 was also another dry spring with some decent days ESP in April and the latter parts of May.

GP on the strat threat alluded to us being close to 1969 in terms of analogues, I took a look yesterday and tbh it looks a bit underwhelming, July was reasonable but June wasn't anything that great. August was pretty average. The key though for this summer is the PDO and the chances of it becoming positive! If this happens I think this summer may be better than some recent ones!

The met office has July 2010 as the 3rd warmest month in Norfolk. The persistent high pressure to the south of east anglia and the south east meant a vast national difference, the warm/hot spell if I am remember correctly lasted from the 22nd June to the 12th July but seemed to return with some further hot sunny days before the month end. Writtle in Essex consistantly seemed to record the highest temps during July 10. I took an average of almost 26c for the month which isn't far off from July 2006. However August 10 was a complete washout! But I would be happy of a repeat of March 10 through to July 10 with a 2003 August weather type my preference!

6.6c for me please, some cold interludes with only brief warmer days likely.

Yes but if I was being picky, places in the southeast such as London/Essex have a max average is 23c in July so 30c is only 7c above which is about 0c in winter and December 2010 averaged around 1-2c avg max so we could easily have a summer month averaging close to 30c. Heathrow had 28.5c in July 2006.

PDO is at last looking like it may edge towards neutral/positive - first summer for a good while! A positive QBO is also good for summer weather, not sure what a -MEI would bring though. Analogues show some decent years there GP, 2006 is probably the outstanding one however some poorer ones there! Surely a more positive PDO would be a big step up GP? What are your thoughts for Spring - a more el nino spring would be wetter? Whilst a perfect spring would be one with low angular momentum and a weak MJO however for a decent summer, June would need to see a more active MJO and stronger angular momentum?

+qbo and -mei I assume is the likely scenairo going into summer. What's the best combo +qbo and +mei? Also how are we doing analogue wise SB?

Yes I for one am looking forward to some nice weather and any love for winter (very little) is quickly draining away! My favourite recent summer has to be 2003 - plenty of heat thunderstorms etc.... 2010 was good for dry weather and we had a nice July here in Essex. 2006 was of course very good too.

Thanks and interesting SB, 1990 comes alot there and that had a very decent summer, do you know what the PDO level was in early 1990? So we could compare?

With two poor summers so far this decade (2011/2012) which seems to be related to low sunspot activity, I would like to get a first hand account of peoples summer weather experiences in the 60s which also went through a similar stage. My main points of interest are, What were the warm ones? Any memorable days or weeks or months? Were thunderstorms often present? Any awful days? Please discuss.......

Could you please post the link for this site, looks useful and does it have any forecasts?

So looks like a similar scenairo to spring/early summer 2010 on this basis? I would like another repeat of Apr-Jul 10 But with a hot August rather than the drab we had at the end of summer 2010!

Surely on the basis of nature balancing itself out - a drier than average season should be expected soon - hopefully this falls during summer this year! However I miss out traditional 90s summer heat/storms scenarios which have been missing from recent summers!

Low solar activity = weak angular momentum, negative PDO and a weak GWO. This has helped create warmer than average springs in recent years i.e. mar/apr 07, may 08, spring 09, april 10, spring 2011! However these conditions are not ideal for summer however tbis winter we have seen signs that an el nino pattern is appearing with a more active GWO/MJO, stronger angular momentum and the PDO measure is looking like it may become more neutral. I just wonder whether we can this year have a warmer drier summer?

3.9c for me please, a chilly NW flow followed by possibly an anticyclone over the UK and this then slipping south to allow some warmer southwesterlies later in month.

No not snowing in my part of Chelmsford, in fact since Tuesday morning the temperature has been above freezing and the thaw is continuing with most of the snow gone already especially in the centre of Chelmsford city.

Onto the models and as we move closer we seem to still be unsure on any detail but cold lovers should be pleased especially with the ECM this morning! The ensembles look alot better too on the GFS 00z. I assume by Friday we will have a better grasp on snow prospects http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

Not much has been said about the other variables so lets take a step back and have a look at some other drivers of our atmosphere, 1) MJO - http://www.cpc.ncep....k/MJO/mjo.shtml We are moving fast into phase 6, this suggests blocking to our west/northwest with a trough to the east. http://raleighwx.ame...Phase6500mb.gif 2) angular momentum is rising - at this stage this would support blocking http://www.esrl.noaa...m.sig.90day.gif Alot has been said about the stratospheric warming recently, but the current highly variable models isn't helped by the fast moving MJO and rapidly rising angular momentum. My conclusion is that we are likely to see quite possibly the most prolonged cold spell this winter, however the stability of these variable will help determine the strength of the blocking in place. Keep an eye out!