Alex

Ha ha brilliant! The models are summed up perfectly.

Although August was better, June and July were so awful my sum up would be: Worst two thirds summer ever! It actually annoys me to hear people saying it was ok, yes August was just ok but the sum up of summer should have no ok or good in it, people are falling into the trap of describing like last year where I heard it could of been worst etc etc, basically you couldn't get any worst this year - wettest summer in 100 years. So unless you like wet, the summer was absolutely awful. I think people are forgetting what even an average summer is, the last proper summer month was July 2010, August 2012 was an improvement from the rest of 2011/2012 but could of been much better. The last proper nationwide average month is probably June 2010 - that is over two years ago!!!

Yes I have noticed this in the last few days, trying to establish why for another year running we have a surge in angular momentum in September, coincidence or something else? Just wish July could of incorporated the positive levels forcing larger shift in our summer patterns.

15.9c please

As ever a good summary Gibby, the GFS 00z was a cool outlier though so not sure how much attention we can pay it.

Definately the second half of summer has been alot better for the southeast and August for me has been a typical summer month in Essex which means we avoid most of the rain and we get some hot spells coupled with more average spells. Not one day has so far been below 22c in Chelmsford from my recordings, that's in line with July 2010 just not as dry!

What are the coldest and warmest Septembers? I am thinking this could be a significant warm one!

Interesting times ahead, as we head into September we are likely to see a settled pattern emerging. It's pretty likely that the first 7-10 days will be dominanted by a UK/Scandi ridge with the trough well out into the atlantic however where do we go thereafter? Currently we have quite an amplified phase 3-4 MJO pattern, this generally indicates a trough pattern to our west and a ridge to our east for the end of august/beginning of september. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/AugustPhase3500mb.gif As we head into September, the MJO is likely to become less amplified, however El nino is starting to show its hand and the early September pattern predicted is very typical of this. The wildcard here is angular momentum, as el nino develops expect some sharp rises during the autumn, I just wonder whether a return to unsettled conditions shown in the FI realms of the models is a bit too optimistic. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif You can see from the link above that if we rewind a year, angular momentum rapidly increases during September, could sun/warm lovers be in for a treat this September? Its a distinct possibility!

Writtle - a met office approved station is about 2 miles to the west of my home city Chelmsford. I wondered whether any websites had historic records of the daily data. I know it's not on tutiempo, any other ideas. I need it to validate my own records. Cheers

This coincides nicely with the ensembles which are starting to pick up the drier/warmer signal within the next 10-14 days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png I wonder whether we can get another repeat of last weekend?

I think this August has been pretty good but it is shielding the rubbish that we put up with in June and most of July. People forget that June passed without almost two days of Even dry half decent weather even 2007,2008 and 2011 had a spell of 3-5 days of anticyclonic conditions. July started awful but the week before the Olympics helped revive hopes but again 2007,2008 and 2011 had some decent days and 2008 had a very warm spell at the end of the month. August has been warm and at times hot and has been a more traditional summer month but still doesn't quite match a spectacular month like aug 03 or July 06 albeit though it has been much better. I think at this rate, this summer will go down as a summer of two halves - one being the worst half ever and the second being average and at times nice but it still doesn't make up for the awful dross we encountered in June and in many parts of July and so far it goes down in the same list as 07,08 and 11 and has been at times probably worst!

My point is that there was hardly a whisper of a possible short heatwave and they supported a very unsettled outlook even though the ensembles well supported the idea, I think the met do a great job but I think in the last few weeks the outputs have been poor - maybe the Olympics is to blame who knows?

I'm not so sure John, here is my analysis- as you say the possibility was there a week before and showing on the GFS output on 11/08 (12z & 18z) Saturday's output 11/08 Generally very unsettled with some sunny spells and showers but also longer spells of rain, probably most persistent over northeastern areas at first, though more likely in western areas later in the period. Although temperatures should be around average in the main and perhaps even a little above average in some southern districts, it will occasionally feel rather cool in brisk winds. There is even a risk of gales at times, especially early in the period. As we move towards the end of August, it looks like remaining unsettled in all areas, but with some short-lived drier and brighter spells. There is little sign of a return to the current warm and largely settled conditions. Updated: 1209 on Sat 11 Aug 2012 Sunday's output - still not even a mention of warm only slightly above despite the GFS outputs. 12/08 Generally very unsettled with some sunny spells and showers but also longer spells of rain, probably most persistent in western areas. Temperatures should be around average in the main and perhaps even a little above average in southeastern districts, where there may be more in the way of sunny spells, although even here there is a risk of thundery showers for a time. It will occasionally feel rather cool in rain and brisk winds, particularly in the north and west. As we move towards the end of August, it looks like remaining unsettled in all areas, but with some short-lived drier and brighter periods. Daytime temperatures continuing to be largely around average, with the best chance of above average temperatures in the southeast. It may feel cooler overnight. Updated: 1157 on Sun 12 Aug 2012 Monday's output - warm is mentioned but nothing like very warm/hot again despite GFS and now GEM and ECM guidance. 13/08 Generally unsettled with sunny spells and showers at first but also longer spells of rain, probably most persistent in northern and western areas. Temperatures should be around average in the main, perhaps rather cool in some northwestern areas, emphasised by brisk winds . However it does seem likely to be warm and humid in southeastern areas around next weekend, with more in the way of dry weather and sunny spells, although there is a risk of scattered heavy, thundery showers breaking out. As we move towards the end of August, it looks like remaining unsettled in all areas, but with some short-lived drier and brighter periods. Daytime temperatures by this stage largely around average or a little below, with the best chance of occasioanl above average temperatures in the southeast. Updated: 1247 on Mon 13 Aug 2012 Only when we get to Tuesday, very warm is mentioned then during the week highs of 24c were shown until Thursday when it started to rise. Friday was the first time 30c was mentioned as a possibility and we end up with 32c?

I hate to say it but the met office have been rather poor on this output in the last few weeks, for example yesterday it was meant to be very unsettled now it's generally unsettled for next weekend and last weekend they described this one was meant to be very unsettled and a few days before that there was no sign of sunny warm conditions again. I don't think they meantioned hot once in the 6-15 day output and then all of sudden on Friday the weekend was due to be hot in the 1-2 day output. In my eyes - poor.

Ha ha, but we were expected to get to 32c and the midday thunderstorm stopped the sunshine for an hour at the warmest part of the day.

Only 29c today so far due to a 20min thunderstorm during the day. Warming up now come on 30c!

Bit political isn't it, got to be better than that idiot milliband who thinks we have a bottomless pit of money and opposes anything the coalition put forwards, as I think I've expressed before - I'm not a fan of labour - they brought us fake jobs, spent all our money and brought millions of people to an already crowded island. Enough said lol.

What is wrong with people, lovely warm day and evening, nothing was unbearable in my book. Much rather have a warm day than an expensive cold day costing a bomb to heat my house and having to wash more clothes as have more layers, having dry skin. You lot are mad!

30.7 in Writtle at 14:00. Can it make 32c?

29.9c in Writtle nr Chelmsford and directly next to V Festival, lucky sods! http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/99127.html

Interesting that the Meto have issued a heat health watch for parts of South East England ESP Essex! My home county, this heatwave is very localised, there has been other examples of similar local heatwaves in recent years (July 2010, June 2011) but these were more extensive extending to London and other areas of the south east.

I would have to disagree, the general public would be more encouraged by another July 06 or July 76 month than any Dec 10 or 62/63 winter. Maybe more members on here are the opposite but generally you will find from people I speak to that they pretty much hate cold snowy conditions where hot sunny conditions - the majority support hence why thousands descend on beaches aboard every year. I must admit I used to pray for some cold snowy conditions but my wish has come true in recent years and now I would much rather have a warm sunny summer!

Still uncertainty regarding the weekend on where this front will end up and how far east it'll get, the further west the better as it'll allow sunnier skies in the southeast and for a broader part of the country which will allow temps to climb more rapidly. The GEM 00z is the pick of the bunch this morning with the 20c uppers across coastal parts of Kent and Essex; I am still surprised by the met office predictions of max 28c, surely even if we end up with 17-18c uppers as predicted and we have enough sunshine - 30c is likely. For western and central areas I would expect showers to be the order of the day particularly on Saturday however I think some places will get some bright spells. The far north and southwest may end up dry and bright throughout however more cloud can be expected in the far west on Sunday as the fax chart shows the front being pushed back west. Interesting times ahead!

Still bizarre differences in the communication of this potential hot spell, the BBC temps are 29c on sat then 23c for my area - GFS is 31c on Sunday and I've heard some sources such as local tv/radio say 30c on both days? No heat health watch either despite 30c being recorded on both days?

Thanks Stewart, longer term do you think end of August/September could hold the euro ridge, Atlantic trough scenario and another plume could develop? Shame it's not a bit more west and we could have some impressive high temperatures.