Alex

Will it change though? Trend has been for a few days now for that trough to be positioned more west and therefore it opens up the gates to a potential ridge to our east. Could even see some retrogression with this pattern if heights build strongly. I am liking the AM trend - neutral/positive something we haven't seen for a while during August! http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif With MJO weak, current pattern could persist with trough out west and ridge to east. How west will determine how our pattern develops into week 2, but the trend is there!

Very true, I blame the iPhone ha ha!

I'm rather pleased at how this has gone so far!@alexbweather

I would urge everyone to take a look at the seasonal forecast thread and see where I hedged my bets for July, the signals were there in May.Not wanting to beat my own trumpet but it's worth adding especially as I was on the right track.@alexbweather

A good post here!Ensembles show that the GFS 06z was far too progressive and prob an outlier with its trough development to the NW, I think a smaller breakdown is inevitable but it may only affect the far North again. AM is still low, MJO is in its central sphere and therefore holds little influence, therefore I cannot imagine any big wholesale changes yet! I still have doubts about pressure rising to the direct north/north east, I think models may be too progressive and this development holds the key to where we go next!Therefore more of the same with a slight change end of month to north/south split possible, maybe more wholesale change early August?@alexbweather

Southend-on-sea was registering 27c and 20% humidity at 12:00! I've seen a bit lower before in Essex and 15-25% isn't that uncommon.

Low cloud hasn't been a problem here in Chelmsford (apart from thursday morning) and we are only 30miles from the east coast. It has also been hot and sunny throughout, so you have been unfortunate even Frinton-on-sea reached 27c yesterday!In regards to scandi troughing, we have been here before? We have a very weak MJO signal so expect lots of variables ahead!

Quick observation, some have suggested it tonight but I think the ridge will push back westwards by the end of the weekend but probably not as much as progged by the GFS 12z earlier. The giveaway is the last 10-14 days of the MJO. It settled in phase 1 for the end of June into July so suggest we take into account composites for both June and July. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml June composites suggest trough to NE and ridge over the UK. http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JunePhase1500mb.gif July composites suggest trough over the UK. http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JulyPhase1500mb.gif Suggest June composites are closer to the mark but with a marked Angular momentum drop during this last 10-14 day period, this suggests a less amplified pattern so a westward correction i.e Scandi Trough/Atlantic Ridge. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gi Unlikely to have a rinse/repeat of this week for forseeable, not unless we at least start to see a upward trend in GLAAM. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif It's not all bad though, suspect a weakening incoherent MJO may mean we get stuck with a similar pattern to the one progged above, therefore more unsettled in north/east, more settled in south/west? Add me on twitter: @alexbweather

Why? Too hot for you? Maybe you should move away from the hottest part of the country during summertime then lol!It reached 27.8c at the official Met Office station in Writtle near Chelmsford, Essex. On reflection to previous years, we haven't seen the longevity but here in Chelmsford - 2012 saw 32c, 2011 saw 31c and 2010 saw 31c. I'm hoping for 33c+ this year!

This should help Blizzards!http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

Time for a technical look at what is in front of us. It's no surprise that we are heading into a warm, sunny spell. AAM recently went positive. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif Coupled with a move of the MJO into phase 8 around a week ago. http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JunePhase8500mb.gif The positive AAM suggests a strong amplified phase 8 pattern with heights over the UK. There has been suggestions of a scandi trough developing with heights retrogressing westwards. This is a possibilty, because GWO has entered a low amplified stage and the models are potentially looking to build a block further north. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif However I think there is every reason to be optimistic yet! The atmosphere is setting itself up for the summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the block could get stuck over us with a trough developing to the far NE and far west. The MJO is expected to weaken in the coming days and therefore any large change is likely to be difficult however I do favour as progged by the ECM - a weak phase 5 as we head into July which could push heights out into the Atlantic, however next week seems a tad too soon! Add me on twitter - @alexbweather

Probably due to the southeast having a very warm month, I averaged over 25c for this month and mins were high too. There were quite alot of days over 25c too.Check out Andrewsfield weather station about 20miles NW of where I live. http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/ANDREWSFIELD/07-2010/36840.htm I will go for 17.7c - July is looking good!

Yes you are correct but currently a move into phase 5 which is progged will not conduct any wholesale changes and I can't see a big change in the next 10-15 days.

Tonights ECM 12z run was dreadful, if it did verify it would probably be alot worst than this week with a trough stuck very close to the west of us. The GFS 12z on the other hand is not too far away from the ECM but some of the members are still pushing for the plume scenario and although 1-2 days of very warm thundery weather would be very welcome for a change, it doesn't really look like changing a great deal in the medium term. Teleconnections do favour the ECM to a certain degree, MJO is stuck in phase 4 and AAM is negative. Until these change, expect more of the same - unsettled with the jet stream moving across the UK but not as south as last year so no not as bad but pretty awful compared to some recent June's. The crumb of comfort for July/August and this is if the MJO decides to move and AAM becomes more neutral - is that the PDO went positive in May! So in a nutshell - I don't expect northern blocking to be a major player this summer. @alexbweather

Terrible outputs this morning along with rubbish teleconnections (MJO , weak AAM) this is turning out to be a great summer - not! It seems so hard these days to get a decent couple of weeks though I bet when winter comes we get snow and cold as per the last few years. Fed up already!

Lol, it wasn't a personal dig, I have alot of respect for Matt. It was more of a dig at the ECM 32 day outlook that does seem to be like a broken record when it comes to summer forecasting. On a different note, every Monday and Friday - I do my own two week outlook by analysis of models and teleconnections. If anyone fancies taking a look, it's on my twitter account - @alexbweather

Probably right but it never says anything different - it's like a stuck record!

Hi Jimmy, in a nutshell these are teleconnections or background signals, which can give us hints rather than details of upcoming weather in the medium term.If you want to know more about the MJO, I would recommend the link below using the "educational material" link. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml @alexbweather

I have some upbeat news tonight, We have been in a very weak MJO stage recently and I don't see this changing alot in the next week or so, with a weak phase 3/4 favoured. However the good news is that AAM is on the rise, a mid June rise often corresponds well with a rise in pressure across the mid latitudes. ECM tonight looks too progressive, but if this rise continues we could well see another bout of anticyclonic weather. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif Add me on twitter for more of my weather views - @alexbweather

Of course summer cannot be written off at this stage but the background signals aren't great and could potentially write off most of the 2nd half of June, a very small positive this evening is that AAM may pick up slightly over the next 5 days. Something to watch!

You hinted this current settled spell mirrors June 2007 and some of the outputs tonight mirror the 2nd half of this terrible year! We have a negative AAM and weak MJO so the evidence unfortunately points to another southerly tracking jet with lows stalling to the west of the UK. Is there anyway out of this summer trend?

I would take a middle ground on this - I think like you say they are much more qualified than the general public and I have great respect for the met office and the work they do and I actually love the longer range outlook.I think the priorities of the MO is not the longer range outlook and the work into this output is probably mostly what is provided by the ECM 32 day outlook, however I would be interested in how much knowledge the MO have in teleconnections ie MJO / AAM etc - is this used to validate a ECM 32 day output?However my disappointment in the Met really starts with alot of the forecasters who appear on the BBC these days and it is obvious they are there for looks and not for meterology - bring back John Kettley and Michael Fish - it seems knowledge and eagerness for the love of the weather is missing which is a shame!

Hi Blizzards,Mods can move this if they feel it is right. My opinion on summer is still that it will be the warmest and driest summer since 2006 but if la nina develops then there is an increased chance of my initial thoughts going out of the window. The problem we have now is that angular momentum has gone negative and the MJO is incredibly weak. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif Both of these characterise La Nina development, I may be premature with my thoughts and more time is needed. My thoughts above look like the middle of June will be much more unsettled due to these Synoptics. If we continue wiith neutral ENSO which is characterised by neutral AAM and a stronger MJO then there is an increased chance of a mid latitude ridge setting up somewhere, 2010 is a good example of this which set up over Europe in July and extended to Russia in August. I hope I answer your question. If you have any other Qs then feel free to ask me on twitter - @alexbweather

I think it's fair to say that the background signals favour a trough probably just to our west in the 7-10 day timescale. We have a rather negative angular momentum level and with MJO moving into phase 3, this favours trough action close to the UK. Also to note is that the last stratopsheric warming hasn't receded yet so northern blocking could well be favoured. As others have said - enjoy it while it lasts!

Surely we are due a warm spell soon even this settled spell is full of less than impressive temperatures. Me and my garden need some heat!