Alex

Something doesn't look right with the GFS 06z, although it seems to have further downgraded the heat/settled spell, I think at the same time it is overdoing the trough over Iceland. I may be wrong but it will be interesting to see what the ensembles show.

What will be key now is whether the models backtrack and move everything east meaning once again the southeast gets the plume whilst the rest of the country wonders what the fuss is about. This though is one time when I think things will fall into place nicely and most of the country could benefit from the heat!

I think it's too early to say of which areas will benefit the most from the upcoming anticyclonic spell. Even if it does set up to the north, yes I would favour western areas getting the warmest temperatures but the south shouldn't do too bad, the breeze will be strong enough to keep cloud building up despite it being slightly cooler. Besides this where I live in Essex (Chelmsford) which isn't far away from the east coast - when an onshore wind blows it rarely is ever cool or cloudy, this is reserved for places further north which have a larger sea track and a slightly weaker sun.

Chelmsford hit 33c last August and it hit 32c the year before.

But do they? One big trend over the last 3-4 days has to slowly move the projected trough westwards. First of all this Friday we were meant to see a scandi trough. Over the last few days, this has moved to a UK trough. Now we are seeing the first glimpses of where I believe it will setup - to the west of us, yes close enough to throw up some potent weather systems next weekend but in terms of temperature - warm and humid I would expect, especially the further southeast you are. Moving into the following week (week 2) and I see signs of retrogression, therefore the scandi high could come back into play!Despite all this, as some have said, watch the models try to predict this tropical storm! @alexbweather

Interesting h2005uk I too live close to Writtle (2 miles away) my garden station shows similar maxes but warmer minimums because I live closer to Chelmsford city centre. Mins are 2-3c higher but maxes are similar. The effect of Chelmsford probably helps the maxes be slightly higher than where you are.

Dry spells aren't uncommon in Essex- 2010 is a recent example - a dry spring was followed by a very dry June and July. I don't think I recorded any appreciable rainfall for a month during late June to late July. Spring 2011 was very dry. Even the second half of summer in 2012 into September was dry. July 2013 was dry but there was some thundery outbreaks at night. Now we have 2014 where after a very wet winter it was followed by a dry spring and start to summer. Although this period is not out of the ordinary although it may well be for places further north and west.

Hi John, both the met office and BBC websites have been poor recently. I must say I don't watch too many TV forecasts so can't be sure. The main gripe though is that the models show a temperature forecast only for the BBC and Met websites to show much lower figures. Today was an outrage - Writtle is 1mile from me and it reached 26.5c - last night both the BBC and Met websites showed the max to be 21c. GFS output yesterday evening was showing a high of 25c. I appreciate the work that the Met Office does but the website is poor and the temperature forecasts are sometimes way out!

Has anyone noticed how poor these have been recently? Today my location (Chelmsford) was predicted a max of 21c - it is in fact 25c with temperature still rising? I have noticed under doing the maxes more over the last few weeks!

Great weather here in Essex! Friday was warm and sunny, Saturday had a large thunderstorm during Am this cleared to warm sunny skies during PM and yesterday the temperature reached 25c under clear skies. Today is cloudier but very humid - our local weather station shows temp at 22.5c and dewpoint at 19c at 1pm. http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/99127.html

It's a good point pjl20101 - however despite some interesting trends - we should still look to our SW for a pressure rise. Next weekend looks interesting for a convective fan - detail is far from set but it looks like a plume of warm air will steadily rise northwards as the mean trough backs west however it never really gets far enough away for the plume to be able to really impact our weather apart from say the far southeast (Essex and Kent?).It's the time after this that interests me the most, does the trough back further west? There are signs it will and if it does - we maybe onto the first nationwide summery spell and it is the rise from the SW that will look to link up with any ridge to our north. Ensembles suggest a drying/warming trend for midmonth.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.pngSome interesting model watching time to come in the next few days to see if all of this comes into play.

You may be right or maybe wrong. One thing to consider though is that 2007 started good - people forget that the first 14/15 days were mostly dry and warm/sunny. It went downhill thereafter.2008 had a brief nice period midmonth during June. Generally June wasn't awful, it was showery and changeable rather than the washout 2nd half of June 2007.June 2009 was mixed but generally dry with that nationwide heatwave at the end of the month. June 2010 was dry with a warm start and end, midmonth was cool and dry with a scandi trough.June 2011 started pretty good for first 5 days then went downhill. The end of the month brought a temporary heatwave to the southeast.June 2012 was awful from start to end, there was probably 2/3 fine days.June 2013 was rather cool but dry.Therefore when I look at it, preferred weather if it isn't hot/sunny would be cool/dry as that seems to be a good trigger to move into a decent spell of weather. Nothing scientific about that trend probably pure coincidence. The worry for me is that there is far too much northern blocking going on and we need a trigger to lower heights to the north. The triggers at this time of the year are things like positive angular momentum and a phase 1 MJO during June is preferred.P.s summer 2013 was immense! June wasn't great but July was hot and sunny and August was generally warm and sunny with a lot of evening thunderstorms.

As always - caution at this stage but the latest GFS output was not a complete outlier with many members showing a warming trend into June. It could well be a little early but I most certainty would punt for a pattern change towards mid June in line with some of the changes upstream. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

It's been touted a few times on the GFS over the last few days and I would say its time to look to our SW for a pressure rise in early June. The 06z shows some very stable summery conditions in its latter stages. This is definitely in line with a burst of westerlies triggered by a rise in angular momentum.

How did you get the analogue years SB? 2009 and 2012 are already different as we now have a +PDO.With the way things are going 1997 may not be a bad base though.

June and July 2010 was great here in Essex but August was horrendous. I think July averaged around 25c avg max. Although there was a drier cooler interlude mid month in June.2009 was mixed but August was generally settled and warm.

Sorry people, been away for a while with other commitments.Anyways this summer is v interesting for a number of reasons.Firstly we have a rapidly declining QBO coupled with a neutral MEI.PDO has recently swung to positive and this is associated with a developing El Niño.With rapidly changing upstream patterns I think you can totally ignore May, of course summer could follow in a similar vain.At the moment my thoughts are for a decent start to summer, The developing El Niño is not evident enough to have much effect on us yet. Interestingly enough sea ice is at much larger values than recent years. The developing easterly based QBO is of more concern however with the other upstream patterns, I feel that we could see a greater than avg chance of scandi blocking particularly around the early part of summer.Towards August there is of course considerable uncertainty but I would punt for a more 2004 style month so warm and wet.Therefore in summary, early thoughts are for a decent summer probably nothing spectacular but there will be changeable periods particularly to the north and west. August is looking wetter.I will update my thoughts towards the end of May along with looking at longer term modelling, for now check out my twitter feed - @alexbweather.

I suppose we should thank the Met Office really who reported that we could have another 10 cool wet summers during June this year due to the +AMO.

My 2013 Autumn Forecast by Alex B I am sure most will agree that Summer 2013 will go down as a good one however I doubt it will be said in the same breath as 76 or 2006, but it has been a big improvement on recent summers! How is Autumn going to shape up? Lets look at some of the upstream patterns first - tropical activity has been weak during August and this has kept us in a very typically average August pattern. However during the last few days we are starting to get an eastward propagation - this is important as enhanced activity in the Western Hemisphere at this time of the year equates to some cooler weather down the line. Sea state temperatures are generally average to above normal around our shores this could enhance rainfall and help keep temperatures slightly above normal. Sunspot activity has been more active this summer and I expect this to continue into the autumn, although not proven - reduced activity correlates well to a southerly tracking jet. ENSO forecasts favour a continuation of neutral conditions - therefore la nina / el nino anomalies are not evident enough to discuss in any detail. For seasonal forecasting I use a model called CFS v2 - it did a very good job in helping me to predict the very decent July just gone! Tracking it over a period of time can indicate what it's favoured direction is! One of it's strongest trends for this Autumn has been for a drier/warmer October than normal. There are other longer term variables that come into play, PDO (pacific decadal oscillation) is one such variable and this is like a longer term el nino or la nina phase. We are currently in a cool cycle. So in summary of above * Tropical activity indicates a gradual cooling of our temperatures into September with pressure likely to be low to the east of us. * Sea state temperatures around the UK are average or even above normal. * Sunspot activity although still relatively weak, it has been more active than some recent years. * CFS v2 - strongly supporting a good October in terms of warmth and reduced rainfall. * -PDO autumns have been generally warmer and drier than normal, 2011 is one example. What do I expect? September - The NW/SE split is likely to continue at first but gradually becoming cooler and more unsettled everywhere with probably the best weather in the west midmonth and rather cool everywhere. The end of the month is likely to see a return to more settled conditions and perhaps slightly above normal temperatures as a result. October - Becoming increasingly settled with some reasonable days, however with the longer nights comes the threat of fog and maybe frost at times especially in northern areas. An easterly flow is likely for the first half of the month but it is likely to be relatively warm air. During the latter half it may become more changeable in the west, the southeast could hold onto more fine weather though. November - Becoming unsettled at first but temperatures will hold up well with some mild nights at first, during the second half there is a small signal for a colder drier regime with some frosty nights likely. Summary - I expect rainfall will stay slightly below normal but there will be some local differences. Temperatures likely to be near or above normal. For stats I am predicting Rainfall - 90% CET Temperatures of - +0.5c Sunshine - 105% @alexbweather

My 2013 Autumn Forecast by Alex B @alexbweather I am sure most will agree that Summer 2013 will go down as a good one however I doubt it will be said in the same breath as 76 or 2006, but it has been a big improvement on recent summers! How is Autumn going to shape up? Lets look at some of the upstream patterns first - tropical activity has been weak during August and this has kept us in a very typically average August pattern. However during the last few days we are starting to get an eastward propagation - this is important as enhanced activity in the Western Hemisphere at this time of the year equates to some cooler weather down the line. Sea state temperatures are generally average to above normal around our shores this could enhance rainfall and help keep temperatures slightly above normal. Sunspot activity has been more active this summer and I expect this to continue into the autumn, although not proven - reduced activity correlates well to a southerly tracking jet. ENSO forecasts favour a continuation of neutral conditions - therefore la nina / el nino anomalies are not evident enough to discuss in any detail. For seasonal forecasting I use a model called CFS v2 - it did a very good job in helping me to predict the very decent July just gone! Tracking it over a period of time can indicate what it's favoured direction is! One of it's strongest trends for this Autumn has been for a drier/warmer October than normal. There are other longer term variables that come into play, PDO (pacific decadal oscillation) is one such variable and this is like a longer term el nino or la nina phase. We are currently in a cool cycle. So in summary of above * Tropical activity indicates a gradual cooling of our temperatures into September with pressure likely to be low to the east of us. * Sea state temperatures around the UK are average or even above normal. * Sunspot activity although still relatively weak, it has been more active than some recent years. * CFS v2 - strongly supporting a good October in terms of warmth and reduced rainfall. * -PDO autumns have been generally warmer and drier than normal, 2011 is one example. What do I expect. September - The NW/SE split is likely to continue at first but gradually becoming cooler and more unsettled everywhere with probably the best weather in the west midmonth and rather cool everywhere. The end of the month is likely to see a return to more settled conditions and perhaps slightly above normal temperatures as a result. October - Becoming increasingly settled with some reasonable days, however with the longer nights comes the threat of fog and maybe frost at times especially in northern areas. An easterly flow is likely for the first half of the month but it is likely to be relatively warm air. During the latter half it may become more changeable in the west, the southeast could hold onto more fine weather though. November - Becoming unsettled at first but temperatures will hold up well with some mild nights at first, during the second half there is a small signal for a colder drier regime with some frosty nights likely. Summary - I expect rainfall will stay slightly below normal but there will be some local differences. Temperatures likely to be near or above normal. For stats I am predicting Rainfall - 90% CET Temperatures of - +0.5c Sunshine - 105% @alexbweather

Go for 16.7c - can see a repeat of August 2012 quite likely.

I understand that heat doesn't suit anyone but my point was that the BBC made a real negative view of the heatwave, there wasn't much programming spent on how people were enjoying themselves or how the tourism industry had a mini boom! Just an observation.

Pref would like a run of the last week - average highs around 27c , lows around 15c so nights are cool enough to sleep but evenings are warm enough to sit out, the occasional hotter day with a thunderstorm is very ideal! Chelmsford has been very good during last week - weather wise!

You ought to have watched the BBC when we had the heat - so negative - everyone was apparently going to die and the advice was so OTT.In regards to the models - looks like the heat progged for the end of this coming week has been shifted east slightly, therefore eastern coastal areas may be close to the 20c uppers but not as inland as earlier runs. Something to watch!

The N Sea tends to be a problem where there is a bigger sea track between land ie the north-east, as you get to Essex and Kent it gets smaller and smaller. My point is that you say the N sea has spoilt some of the summer for eastern areas but that just isn't really true for Essex - the low cloud muck that Norfolk got a few weeks back didn't affect us and temps still got to high 20s under a NE wind here in Chelmsford! Even Frinton waa reaching 23-24c, Sometimes it does have an influence but I would say it is probably influenced 50% less than Norfolk would be especially if I go on the stats of this summer!