Alex

You may recall a storm in the early 00s maybe late 90s But it was overnight and we must of had 3 lightning strikes in G Baddow (where I was living at the time) and it woke me up - sounded like a bomb had gone off - amazing storm though. Other very decent storms was one around mid June 2009 and June 1996. Do you recall any other really good ones?

I'm afraid I have some less favourable news tonight, since the beginning of the year we have been in a positive AAM state, this in the last few days has turned negative which in turn could start to be signs of a la nina type developing, this is coupled with a weak MJO which for me is concerning longer term, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml The negative trend of AAM and a slightly favourable phase 1 MJO will help pressure rise over the UK over the next few days and I expect a decent first half of June maybe even with a thundery warm breakdown as progged by the GFS tonight but longer term I have concerns - the upstream patterns are starting to indicate a la nina type may be developing and recent summers have been spoilt by this. I just hope a upturn in AAM can help prevent this during the summer months. Add me ln twitter at @alexbweather

14.9c please.

Living in Great Living in Gt Baddow the answer is yes - I have had 2-3c differences at night even more sometimes in mid summer. Gt Baddow is alot more built up than Writtle!

My Summer Forecast 2013 By Alex: it's been a pretty cool Spring this year which has been very similar to Spring 2006. Will the summer follow a 2006 type? The answer is possibly! We have very different Synoptics to the last few years - interestingly this cool unsettled end to May has coincided with the last stratospheric warming and the warming out of the current nearby trough is likely soon - how soon leaves us is questionable! However I expect this to happen by at least the first ten days in June which will allow the Azores high to ridge across the UK initially into western areas and then across all areas. It will probably settle over Scandinavia or mainland Europe for a while with a hot period likely towards the end of June ESP in southeastern areas. The rest of the summer although unlikely to be a 2006 repeat is likely to be the warmest and sunniest summer since the famous 06 summer! However there will be unsettled spells more especially in August. July is the one to watch with a drier than average month quite consistently progged by the CFS v2 model. The fly in the ointment to my predictions will be whether the upstream patterns can continue to thwart the possibility of la nina conditions developing. If an active MJO continues along with positive angular momentum - then I don't see this an issue, however August is most at risk from a la nina type developing which would in turn mean a more unsettled cooler month. Overall I predict a decent summer but probably not a memorable one. For stats I am looking at a CET of around +0.5c above avg for 1981-2010 (June, July and August). Rainfall I expect to be varied with thunderstorms likely at times - however over England and Wales 90-95% can be expected with sunshine probably ending up 105% of average. Add me on twitter@alexbweather - for more of my weather views!

Alot warmer up north? Are you joking? It reached 19c in London today - would hardly say it's alot warmer!

I think there are alot of possibilities out of them variables. Just hope 2011 isn't repeated - what a horrendously cool summer. I was surprised to see MEI go positive again too!

I await the ECM 00z ensembles but the difference seems to be the difference in MJO modelling; ECM takes us into phase 4 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml Whilst the GFS keeps us in phase 5 before dragging us into phase 8/1 towards the end of May. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml GFS Ensembles suggest a warming/dryer trend? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png It will be interesting to see this evenings runs! For more of my weather views, feel free to add me on twitter - @alexbweather

Interestingly MEI has gone positive again. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html This is coupled with a positive QBO!

I have been tracking the MJO very carefully this year and the eastward movement has been faster than predicted so I expect this is going to continue to fool the models somewhat within the 10-15 day timespan. Interestingly according to the GFS we are 1-2 days away from phase 4, only a few days ago we was in phase 1!You can see more of my weather views on my twitter account - @alexbweather

In simple terms I think signs are encouraging for a better summer than recent times. Here are some notes I have made in preparation for my summer forecast.1) Although we are in a neutral ENSO state we have had some el niño characteristics during spring ie neutral to positive angular momentum and a more active eastward progression of the MJO. 2) Sunspot activity is higher than it has been for a while. 3) Analogues suggest 1969/2004/2006/2008 to be closest years to the present. 4) +QBO (very different to last year which had a very negative reading) Only main negative is a -PDO ! I will present my full forecast later this month but hopefully this will help settle some nerves as I think the playing field is different to recent years. I am on twitter - add me for more of my weather views - @alexbweather

I must agree with the majority on here - we do need a decent nationwide summer. The last few years although have had spells of good weather particularly in the southeast - this has sadly not been a UK event! It doesn't need to be a 2006 type summer to make people happy just a pretty bog standard 2005 type summer would be fine with some good spells for everyone. I think the last nationwide decent spell (during summer) goes back to potentially late June 2009? 2010 was good for the south and east and 2011/2012 both failed to provide a nationwide fine spell - late July 2012 was a prime example only covering the southern third of the country. My preference would be something like a 96 type summer - some sunny weather, some thunderstorms and a decent lot of dry weather to be outside! Got a twitter account? Add me @alexbweather for more of my weather views and technical analysis.

If we get the retrogression as progged by some of the models today then we could be looking at shades of late may 08 - v unsettled south/more settled up north. Hope this doesn't come off!

Yes definately a chance of retrogression which is more in line of the eastward movement of the MJO towards phase 3, however I do wonder how much retrogression will occur with a fast movement into phases 4/5. Phase 5 within 10-15 days suggests the end of the month may become more settled once again. Phase 3 for May http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/MayPhase3500mb.gif Phase 5 for May http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/MayPhase5500mbAnomalies.gif In regards to Summer - I am encouraged by positive angular momentum levels and a more active MJO all this bodes well despite a negative PDO. For more of my weather views - check out my twitter site @alexbweather

I haven't posted here for a while however anyone writing off a decent May this early is likely to be going against the signals. MJO is heading through phases 1-2-3 - the composites for May suggest a ridge near to the UK with the exception of phase 3 which is more unsettled further north. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml Angular momentum is relatively neutral (neutral/negative in May tends to promote ridging for mid latitudes) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif Moving forward towards the middle of May I believe that a more unsettled blip is likely (perhaps with some very warm air for a time too), however perhaps the GFS 06z is too early in that blip and I would think that this blip is more likely next weekend or even beyond in line with a eastward movement of the MJO towards phase 3. The MJO is then likely to head into Phases 4/5 towards the 2nd half of May and a steady AM is likely to promote another bout of settled weather. The majority of the GFS ensembles (00z) also don't buy the early breakdown as progged in some recent runs. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png My May forecast on my twitter account @alexbweather is a good read for less technical details. Enjoy the sunshine!

Hi Jo welcome to the Netweather community! Looking forward to your posts/views etc!

12.7c for me - MJO phases 1-2-3 favour a more settled warm pattern.

I am still punting for a 2010 type summer which includes a nationwide ok/good June, some sort of NW/SE split July and a poorer August. We still have a -PDO and although we now have a westerly QBO, I think unless the PDO becomes neutral or negative - we may be in a poorer standing for decent summers akin to the summers during the 60s. interestingly the atmosphere has been acting in an el niño way recently though - I read somewhere that an el nino period overrides the effects of -PDO, unfortunaely though we have neural ENSO conditions currently.Follow me on twitter: @alexbweather

21c in Writtle Chelmsford today! Had a barbecue - felt like a typically good spring like day!

Encouraging signs of some spring warmth on the models this evening; GFS ensembles confirm that we are likely to be heading into a period of above average temperatures. London ensembles for the 18z: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnmgeur.html However there are large signs that we are about to enter a SE/NW split type. Manchester ensembles indicate the slightly enhanced rainfall: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnmgeur.html My feelings are that the warmth will be felt during the latter stages of the weekend and beyond especially so, after such a large period of below average temperatures. MJO is progged to enter a relatively strong phase 3 which indicates a trough setting up to the west of Ireland. Although not quite where I think we will see it, I think the broad idea of a trough to the west/northwest of us is correct and hence the reason for my initial SE/NW split option. I think the weakening of the MJO in the next few days could then see high pressure establish itself near to or over the UK within the next 10-14 days. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/AprilPhase3500mb.gif My feelings on summer have already been shared in the summer 2013 thread, but I feel a NW/SE split pattern could return again during early summer especially with a weakish westerly based QBO and -PDO. Catch my weather views on twitter - @alexbweather

Sea state temperatures do impact on our weather but with most of the Atlantic ocean having average or even above temps I don't think it will impact too much on this summer. The one big impact it will have during the rest of Spring though is increase the chances of low cloud and mist with any onshore wind, especially if we get an easterly wind - eastern facing coasts will be impacted the most with well below temperatures in the North Sea. I am not surprised by the possible polar vortex gaining strength, the stratosphere is going through a period of well below temperatures this should help pressure rise over the mid latitude regions.

I think we are overdue a better summer than average nationwide! My recap on last few summers is as follows; 2006 -nationwide brilliant summer, July was warmest since records began but August took the shine off things with a wetter than normal month. 2007- after 2006 a massive shock to the system, wet and cool everywhere but better spell end of July into August. 2008- although stats prove better than 07, I found it worst in Essex - mainly wet and cool - two better spells one in mid June and one at end of July. But August was a horror show unless you like cool wet conditions. 2009- best summer since 06, June was dry and had a hot spell nationwide at the end of the month, July was wet with normal temps, August had a NW/SE split, Essex was generally sunny warm and dry and I rated this month highly! June also had a very noticeable thunderstorm midmonth. 2010- June had good spells early and late, middle of June was dry and cool. July became another NW/SE split month, I thought this month was almost on par with the best in Essex - very dry with 1-2 days of rainfall - humid and hot at times too, especially at weekends! Avg max temp in July came out at 26c in Chelmsford from own records. August was polar opposite - a cool monsoon month on par with 2008! Thunderstorm activity non existent though. 2011- rather poor - not especially wet but nothing special. June had a couple of rather hot days (one being 33c) at end of month, July was slightly better and again August was cooler than normal but slightly wetter than normal. A rather drab summer overall. This year will be remembered for the warm spring and autumn which were noticeable. 2012- A summer of two halves- June and first half of July - awful - worst than 2007! The second half of July was very good for southern areas, August was enjoyable in Essex - some rather hot days especially midmonth (another 33c!), thunderstorm activity was high at start of month too here. Temps came in slightly above normal in August with drier than normal weather and this continued until the end of September. However the awful June will stick in my memory! I think I would love another 06/76 type summer but I am not greedy and would be happy with a 1996 type summer which had it all and included an incredible storm in June. My own view on this upcoming summer is simple - PDO is negative however we now have a +QBO / neutral MEO pattern - I think unfortunately for some a 2010 summer beckons with a NW/SE split very evident however if the PDO runs into more neutral figures then a better type is possible. I will issue my own forecast in May. Add me onto Twitter to see more of my own weather views - @alexbweather

2008 was one of my worst years for weather - the summer was especially poor, autumn uneventful, winter months rather dull and spring useless apart from the first half of May. 2009 was alot more eventful, 2007 was another poor one - poor winter - poor summer - v good spring though - autumn poor.

What do you make of the met office's view that unsettled weather may come into southeastern areas? I can't see it myself with heights over Scandinavia. Also increasingly on the lookout for a change in the orientation of the high which allows southeasterly winds from southern Europe akin to early March! Fed up of cold now!

GP what can I say? Your inputs and hard work was pure world class! Not only will you be missed by many on here but I personally will miss comparing notes on the model output discussion. I hope wherever you go that you will be appreciated and I for one have learnt such a great deal from you - thanks so much. Alex. Catch my weather thoughts on twitter - @alexbweather