chris55

I’m sure the thread is full of wonderful analysis.... haven’t read it yet.... But for me, coming in blind (so to speak) the ECM is one hell of a Christmas present! The classic westerly December is being usurped by some WTF charts. Loving 192 and onwards, the above chart is as rare as it gets, the potential being loaded for a prolonged cold spell. Can’t remember such disruption to the normal type in a good few years...and that disruption is evident in one form or another in a number of operational runs recently. Definitely something to watch......it seems the building blocks are in place. ??

Those longer range forecasts are very consistent! With mention of the east and south being windier with ppn and the west north west drier. This is describing an easterly flow with high pressure centred to the north. You’d think at this time of year that kind of set up would be cold enough for snowfall! Confidence very low (as you’d expect).but it seems a consistent signal is there.

UKMO 144 my chart of the day That Norwegian Sea high is in danger of getting cut off from the Russian high with the energy forcing south between the two. ECM and GFS broadly similar in the long wave pattern, it’s the way UKMO deals with the details to our north that’s interesting. Probably be gone tomorrow, but shows what’s possible.

The mid term seems to be in a kind of lull re model output at the moment, nothing to cold but equally no raging jet. A sit back and watch kind of period. Hopefully the lead up to Xmas will trend cold

Is that from U.K. perspective or SW France?

ECM 216 Slider incoming with a decently cold continental ‘pick up’ available (French airmass looks good to me). In Summary, general synoptic pattern looks pretty decent for early winter

Those milder 850s being forced north up into Scandi (previously modelled to sweep west over us) look to be staying out east allowing the U.K. cool pool to sustain at 168. Nothing spectacular but a good trend.

GFS day 10 better than ECM for the same period. Though at day 10 it’s just conjecture at this point. GFS actually starting to draw down some colder 850s into the mix with a more northerly flow ECM a little flatter, though still cold at the surface GFS has a nice little slider at 216 as well which would probably deliver some snowfall on its eastern flank! Overall a cold set up on both models, nothing to extreme, and we’ll have to wait and see if it’s cold enough for snow away from high ground. Not a bad place to be as we start winter officially.

Not a clear pattern going forward IMO, making anything showing in the longer term even more unlikely than normal. Quite an unusual synoptic pattern with the Azores high/Atlantic ridge, Scandi/Russian high and the trough in the middle. Cold potential higher than normal, but more runs needed.

Coming into the thread fresh, so to speak (haven’t read it lol) but looking at those last three frames of the ECM operational it really caught my eye. A quite unusual progression with the big Atlantic ridge going OVER THE TROUGH and forcing it south, in turn creating a substantially blocked pattern. In all my years model watching I can’t recall such a scenario. Obviously it’s only a single operation run but thought it was worth a post!

18z setting up a cold easterly feed. Daytime temps really struggling, should feel very seasonal.

Not a complete lost cause IMO could pull in a cold continental feed in the southern half of U.K. at least. The higher heights just north of Iceland suggest perhaps not a full on Zonal flow with space for a looser blocked scenario just about keeping the Atlantic at bay.

ECM day 10 - first op chart of the season worth a comment. Looking nice and blocked

Don’t see inland winds this ferocious here very often (especially in August!) Extremely gusty! Just staked my new trees as they were going vertical and pinned down the trampoline! Neighbours new side awning has been ripped apart. Wasn’t expecting it to be quite this windy!

Don’t see inland winds this ferocious here very often. Extremely gusty! Just staked my new trees as they were going vertical and pinned down the trampoline! Neighbours new side awning has been ripped apart. Wasn’t expecting anything like this.

Garden thermometer in shade reading 35c in my garden in Stroud. We seem to be the hottest area! Must be the hottest day for a good few years in Gloucestershire. Now we await the storms....:)

After such a glorious April, what happens after this weeks more unsettled spell has perked my interest in the models a bit lately. As you say both UKMO and ECM cutting off that low to the far south west bringing in a lovely plume of very warm air! GFS not in agreement and GEFS look consistently wet. Let’s hope EC and UKMO have this one right!

Just checked the ensembles and was surprised how cold some of those runs are! Had to have a more detailed look at the thread etc as haven’t been paying close attention to the runs! Not sure how useful these 850s would be regarding snowfall this late in the season though? Hopefully some night frosts and sunny days not a cold cloudy raw easterly!

There is only one thing I dislike more than zonal wet weather in the UK....and that is zonal wet weather that is cold......but not really cold enough for lowland snow, the end result being generally miserable-grey-cold-slushy- depressing and ultimately useless weather. The dreams of crisp mornings - alpine like sunshine- powder blowing in the wind- sledging- walking are put to bed for another year.... It’s now 10 years since December 2010!!!! (How did that go so quickly!) So we must now turn our wintry expectations/hopes to next year, and in the mean time hope for a warm sunny spring and hot thundery summer. We held out all winter watching and hoping but sad to say WIO x

Warning out for some in the region (north) Cotswolds May see a covering if we are lucky:)

Euro 4 highlighting the risk of some snow tonight. It’ll all be down to ppn intensity and organisation if we see any settling. Obviously hills much more prone to accumulations.

This low is going to be what I call a “Chuckle Brother” low......”to me - to you”. Final track/intensity yet to be decided.

That was a great event here! The intensity and longevity of the snow was totally unforecast with initial front only giving a a few cm’s. As you say it was the local events that gave the heavy falls. IIRC it was caused by Slantwise Convection. Slantwise convection - AMS Glossary GLOSSARY.AMETSOC.ORG This area of PPN just kept on reinvigorating in situ, so to speak, without really going anywhere! Will be interesting to see how Thursdays low pans out. Position/intensity will crucial as to where/if any snow falls.

This little runner on Thursday has been mentioned and noted a few time over the last few days on the national weather and in my head lol. GFS showing the potential for some northern edge snow. Cotswolds could see something if the jet manages to engage the system and force it far enough north....One to watch

Can the end of the month somehow provide a little southern snowfall..... chances are smaller than slim but could this little runner gain some support and bring some snowfall on its northern edge?