chris55

I’m getting more confident it may actually reach us now, and actually hang around for a few hours. With that east wind it should push the ppn intensity west as the front shears. Fingers crossed we wake to at least a covering :!

Looks to be a trend for some ppn to hang around much later into tomorrow than originally forecast (although my faith in the forecast generally has subsided, it’s nice to see perhaps the potential has stretched out into tomorrow as well). Midday tomorrow on the ‘potential’ radar and the early hours through till morning on the app! Here’s to Lady Luck

Who knows Wolf .... I’m undecided. Will keep an eye on the radar. Part of me says deffo a covering, whereas the rest of me say not a lot lol hahah

Hold the post.... Is the front now pepping up again south of Bath as it once again tries to push north?? maybe it isn’t over... Edit as noted above!! Come on ..........pep pep pep lol

Not looking to promising for snowfall in many places to be honest.

It’s not the ground that’s to wet, it’s the airmass that is not allowing it to settle. See post above

Wet ground does not stop snow from settling, I have seen this theory posted so many times in various threads. If the air cools enough, and the dew points fall below freezing then the damp ground will freeze as the snow falls, and the snow will settle perfectly. If the air is slightly to mild or the dew points are to warm then it won’t settle regardless of how wet or dry the ground is. Evaporative cooling is a good example of how heavy snow can fall but not necessarily settle. Of course there is always a complex set of parameters involved with snow settling, but the ground being wet doesn’t dictate if it settles or not.

Light snow now falling in Stroud

Cheese puff has snow, my spirits are lifted....perhaps it is on its way But in all seriousness it’s an evolving scenario, ppn can and will pop up/build in situ, I’ll be keeping an eye on the radar and the window.

It does in landscape mode (I only learnt that yesterday)

Is it bust for us further north......? Im losing faith to be honest, will be more surprised if we have a covering tomorrow than if we don’t see any! I hope I’m wrong. But for all you guys further south make the most the snowfall, lots of pics please

Come on push north!! Lol I still have faith it’ll make it, everything Is edging north.

Yes AWD good solid band with a notable northward push developing

Stop micro analysing lol. Stoud still with plenty of heavy ppn, Dursley will be fine.

Don’t want it to pivot yet lol, let’s get it inland first!!

A few flakes blowing in the wind in Eastington (5 miles west of Stroud)

Met raw data, (app) has light snow as early as 1pm right up here in Stroud. Also going for plenty of heavy ppn. The HRLEM especially seems to keep the highest accumulation further south so good to see raw MET data still looking good for us further north.

I’ll give you calm yourself!

And a beast incoming on ECM longer term :0

What a stunning morning !! A perfect winters day coming up. Bright crisp frosty morning- Beautiful milky blue sky - Stunning moon/Venus/Jupiter Snow incoming Cold following on behind the snow Perfect Enjoy the next 24 hours people.

Yes stunning again this morning. I new one was Venus but wasnt sure what the other one was so thanks for informing

Nice little reminder from Ian on how det-op runs in the mid term can be, and often are, open to change. Obviously if there is clear cut synoptic pattern in the offering with cross model support, like a raging jet or stagnant Bartlett in situ then we may place more trust in the mid term Det runs. But alas our current output is full of uncertainty.

That’s a great post/twitter extract from Ian. Just highlights how, in a complex winter synoptic regime Det/Op runs are not to be take to literally.

At this stage the Apps will give an indication of where the front will be in our area locally (and thats pretty much our entire region) the intricacies of ppn type and intensity will be a now cast scenario. We always moan, question and interrogate our app symbols to the death whenever a potential snow event is looming (I’m the same). But at this close range all we need to do is watch the Radar for approach and longevity and then watch the window for how good (or bad) things are playing out IOBY

I need to invest in a mini weather station!! Im tucked down in the valley in Stroud and it feels bitter out there, my crappy thermometer is reading -1 but I’m sure it wrong lol.