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chris55

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Everything posted by chris55

  1. chris55
    Could well be a slow moving/stalled front embedded here.....snow potential increasing. EC12z
  2. chris55
    Sorry blue, cropped your reply there, but it’s a good quote. Most models/ensembles now on board with colder conditions one way or another. Looking good with the polar front digging well south and cold potentially coming from the north - east and even the west/north west! still lots to pay out in term of details but overall it seems we are slowly heading into a much colder pattern.
  3. chris55
    What model?? What time?? Is this from 1988??
  4. chris55
    EC 168 similar to gfs para, this is the period to be watching IMO, the ops may well roll it over at the moment, but I say watch this space....
  5. chris55
    Gfs para looking primed at 168 (prob a bit late to the party lol, but haven’t read the thread or seen all the runs) Look at that negative tilt
  6. chris55
    Signals for cold now creeping in....more runs needed, more ensembles needed, but with the recent SSW and the EC monthly anomalies things are looking good. Though at face value the op runs may well need a few more days to really see the ensuing cold pattern. Hopefully it’ll just be a case of sitting back and watching the blizzards roll in
  7. chris55
    Now that’s a chart worth posting! Nearly 2C below average as we head into the last third of Jan. Suggesting a well placed scandi high! (Also nice to see the whole chart posted
  8. chris55
    Was looking promising at 144 but unfortunately it rolls over (topples) on this run. However this is a timescale to keep an eye on IMO, subsequent runs could well build that ridge up into Iceland.
  9. chris55
    It’s called a ‘wedge’ lol But in all seriousness, to anyone who’s relatively new to model watching, looking for the nivara charts with the 1060 Greenland high or a massive Scandinavia high is all well and good, and obviously thats our ultimate goal, but sometimes a well placed wedge of heights can deliver the goods (as above).
  10. chris55
    I’m seriously considering putting a bet on this coming February being the coldest in a generation. The significance of how the Stratosphere is reacting following the SSW is remarkable. A slow burner for downwelling, as seems likely, and we have a very cold last third of winter coming up.
  11. chris55
    Patience young padawan , this coming Feb will be the coldest in a generation.
  12. chris55
    Just think upside down, JMA is a Japanese model so has japan at the front, Uk at the top of the chart
  13. chris55
    It’s so nice to see someone who is adept at actually saving the image (chart) and actually posting the whole chart (with date, time, model and full synoptic details) It can be really frustrating trying to work out which chart is being posted when people screen grab half the image and quote it. Is it hard to do this on Android? It’s a very simple task on iPhone. by the way today’s 12z GFS para at 144 looks excellent
  14. chris55
    That’s a fantastic profile for the UK with the high anomaly focused very favourably to support high lat blocking to our north. I get a feeling this SSW will be a slow burner that eventually packs one hell of a punch as we head into late jan and February.
  15. chris55
    The reversal of winds in the Stratosphere at 60n (SSW) is happening around now (today - tomorrow) but thats not referring to the zonal winds at our level (the troposphere) it’s the downwelling of those winds way up high that ‘might’ have an effect on our zonal west to east prevailing pattern. A slow downwelling looks most probable (if the pattern downwells at all) so mid jan the period to watch for a disturbance in our local zonal pattern courtesy of the SSW.
  16. chris55
    A good little snippet from Liam Dutton regarding the possible effects of the SSW. For any stat newbies this is a good guide to what might happen with this SSW.
  17. chris55
    Lots of conflicting views regarding the strat downwelling or not. I have a feeling we are in slightly uncharted territory with the anomalies surround the SSW, so should be fascinating watching how this unfolds over the coming month.
  18. chris55
    We look to have a window of opportunity to get some sort of a block in place around 120-144, the models are toying with some WAA west of Greenland building a high ahead and if we are lucky our resident high may link up and build a more meaningful block. This is the timescale to be watching IMO. It may come to nothing but worth watching. Looks more of an isolated tropospheric response than anything linked to the potential SSW at this stage IMO.
  19. chris55
    GFS looks confused, top down or bottom up? To the layman it seems ECM is more keen on a split form the top, whereas GFS looks to take the split from the troph to the strat but not making it right to the top. Surely troph to strat is more tricky to model as it relies on the less certain troph forecasts to be correct at longer range. This is a very simplistic view so if I’m way off the ball please let me know.
  20. chris55
    Quite enjoying watching this early SSW evolve and develop. Should be some interesting festive model watching coming up. Keep up the good work in this thread guys and girls.
  21. chris55
    It’s a treat to have such an active Stratospheric thread this early in the season. (Thanks to all the contributors) Events high up in the atmosphere are looking more and more likely to be influencing the second and possibly third months of winter. How this eventually shakes out for our little patch will be fascinating. But on past experience SSWs are rarely boring and more often than not deliver some proper cold to the UK in one form or another. I await the results with intrigue, fascination and expectation.
  22. chris55
    Operationals look to be slightly more seasonal/festive for the big day tonight. Where the potential SSW takes us into the new year is high on the agenda, but a cold and frosty Xmas would be lovely while we wait
  23. chris55
    Is fv3 the GFS parallel....? Please enlighten me to the new name when the chart states GFS-P?I haven’t been up to date with the thread lately:)
  24. chris55
    Christmas looking lovely and seasonal on the GFS 12z (as was the 6z) fingers crossed we get a growing trend for cold and frosty (with the chance of snow at least) as we head towards the big day. Loving GFS tonight
  25. chris55
    Interpretation is key, taking the charts at face value, including the ensembles, at present seems futile, the changes in the mid term in the last 48 hours have been substantial. The Atlantic keeps being blocked and held at bay, initially it was Thursday when we had the fronts piling in and now it looks like the block will deflect the systems so far south it’ll stay dry for nearly all. With the block exerting way more influence than modelled just 36 hours ago these Atlantic systems will struggle to make it past the meridian going forward. If the trend continues then those ‘snowfall’ charts will look vastly different come mid week.....
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