chris55

Taking all the main runs it seems all routes lead to that cold pool landing on the UK, it's just the timing/speed of arrival that's up for grabs.

EC on track at 168....:)

EC keeps it cool/cold at the surface with milder 850s being dragged in from the south east, nothing extreme at this stge

Euro vs Euro UKMO 120 EC 120 UKMO much better aligned, EC slower but surely will get there later.

I'm seriously considering getting a few essentials in the cupboards just in case! I never do anything like that and normally the hype is just that, but with every passing run I'm thinking "this might actually come off" Amazing runs!

All formats should be represented with charts like these insanely cold days 9/10! And with these kind of charts popping up left right and centre from various models on various runs you'd have to say we are in with a shout of something similar actually verifying.

Chiono, with all your efforts regarding SSW information/forecast techniques in recent years this must be a really exciting time for you from a viewpoint of SSW effects on the troposphere. We haven't seen an SSW for years and the science and model dynamics have progressed markedly since our last official SSW. Interesting times for sure

SSWs often produce large meandering areas of high pressure, where they 'meander' to will dictate whether we get milder southerlies, stonking easterlies or simply cold and settled. gfs ens highlight this well, with some very cold some very mild and some inbetween. A big positive this morning is up to about day 5, we are beginning to see alighnment of the models with the initial build of heights to our east. Where we end up beyond is still up for grabs but the risk of drawing in some very cold air is high.

After a very busy day with work I'm only just catching up on runs. at first glance (and probably the last glance before I nod off lol) we are certainly still in the game for the cold easterly, although no clear route re high pressure development/placement. will look forward to an early morning analysis ofctge 00z runs

GFS highlighting how even with major blocking the cold flow could miss us. Just one of the possible options, but we'd be unlucky not to pull in the easterly eventually. However UKMO much faster with the easterly flow 120 GEM also looking good 144 204 Ian F was talking about the SSW in local news the other day and said he expected the effect to be much later in the month into march, so an earlier onset of the blocking is a good sign.

Come on Ali share with us mere mortals ( who have just got in and are catching up) what's been said about mogreps? Has Ian been tweeting?

Wowsers, just looked at the 12z GEM and boy that's a peach of a run!! with ops like this and the huge spread on the GFS ens I reckon we are still in with a decent chance of an earlier onset of the cold, if not im sure it will get in eventually.

Well I was quite liking the ECM at at 168, looks like it has potential. Also looking at the 12z ens from GFS they just highlight what a crazy period of model watching we have coming up, they are all over the place, but with high stakes comes high rewards

ECM dragging its heals this morning, will probably get there eventually.

Yikes!! Major snow event there, frontal snowfall to the south and heavy snow showers coming off the North Sea in a bitter easterly gale.

This is very true, experience always wins out. The way we each individually interpret the thread and the charts will change with time and experience/learnings. I remember when I first discovered the wonderful world of models discussion (on the hunt for snow obviously) way back in 2005. I would hang on every comment and every run. Im a little more chilled in my old age lol, though still am ever the optimist. though as I've said before this SSW has certainly changed the way I'm looking at the mid term at the moment. Blocked cold conditions are odds on favourite towards the end of the month. ( though nothing is certain in our NWP world)

Run by run analysis with this major SSW ensuing overhead is even more futile than normal. patience.. "slowly slowly catchy monkey"

Brrrrr

Yep EC with a nice angle of attack bitter uppers incoming!

GFS ens with lots of cold in there, op on the mild side in the mid term, all down to positioning of the upcoming blocking high which is looking mighty impressive. a cold feed does get pulled in eventually on the op though A little earlier on the control

I think some on here need to factor in the the near record breaking SSW that's playing out way above as we speak, Fantasy Island (FI) is to be taken in a different contex vs your standard long range charts. This SSW will have significant effects lower down whithin the next 1-4 weeks, that doesn't mean cold snowmageddon is nailed on, just that all normal senisible assumptions can be thrown out the window, be that mild blocked or a fridgid easterly

Snowing in Stroud

Day 10 ECM If you don't like cold conditions then I'd nestle down till April from this point onwards

There is standard FI and then there is SSW FI. If you have watched the models since 2005 then you will know the difference. That being said, nothing is guaranteed in the world of weather forecasting, but events up top really do count for something at the moment as we progress through late winter into early spring. Give it 5 years and you'll get it.

This SSW has the potential to deliver one of the coldest late February/early March cold periods we have seen for many years. We often talk about Stratospheric happenings in the hunt for cold spells, and it seems we may have hit the jackpot in the way the upcoming warming is set to unfold way up there. It will be facinating to see how it ultimately effects our patch. exciting times