chris55

My summary of the output today, Huge trough from the north west sets up to influence the UK (basically the PV ,or at least a huge lobe from it) bringing in a markedly cold north westerly with heavy snow showers to the north and west of the UK (though they could well penetrate further south and east) some areas seeing significant accumulations. Then we have the potential runners developing to the south side of the trough, this brings the risk of some potentially stormy weather, but more importantly if these runners develop favourably then some significant frontal snowfall could be on the cards for a larger area of the UK. We will will not be able to predict the exact track/intensity of these "runners" until much nearer the time but the risk of snowfall is high imo. Then following that, we have the prospect of the trough (over the UK) digging south and east into Europe, this will open the door to CAA on the top side, and with the Azores ridge following behind and pressure rising in its wake there is the prospect of quite a lengthy northeasterly/easerly flow to develop as we head into the longer term. Overall a very wintry outlook! And zero signs of the predominant January pattern of recent winters where the dreaded Barlette has set up shop (in fact we have hardy had a whiff of a barlette this winter thus far )

Interesting GFS 12z with the progression from 120, the trough beefs up as expected early next week bringing in the chilly or even cold north west flow. Then, as has been modelled for the past few runs it digs south east and fills allowing pressure to rise pretty much everywhere in its wake, with no obvious Atlantic push to take its place. Where exactly everything ends up is anyone's guess at present but the trend it definitely there for a much colder period to follow. strong north west flow bringing snow to some And by day 10 the door is open to a much colder flow

Yes, the fact it spins up into a deeper (more powerful) low means it ends up to far north, and doesn't slide, a weaker low would slide south east and produce snow on its northern edge. although snow showers would follow behind once the colder air gets pulled south.

To far north at 192 and to powerful for much snow, but a potent storm nonetheless. However the general pattern has much potential going forward in subsequent runs.

Could be a substantial runner potentially developing at 168 EC, snow on its northern edge...:lets see how it progresses

UKMO brings in a pretty impressive north west flow, with the elongated Atlantic trough digging south east coming up against the block to our east Quite a short sea track and a very cold source could offer a few snowy surprises. thereafter......if we can get that trough to dig into Europe with heights rising behind (becoming a theme in GFS FI) then we could well be in for a decent cold spell. will await EC with interest

where and from whom have you got this info? enlighten us with more details please feb.

I hate slush!! (Dec 17) first slush Second slush just highlighting the facts.

If this ..... goes under like this then we could well be locked into an ever evolving freezer type pattern. however if this Goes under less convincingly like this.... Then who knows where we will end up!!! But mild southwesterly looks unlikely.

Dryer easterly (continental) air aids snowfall at uppers of 0c, as long as the flow remains off the continent it shouldn't be marginal. (All conjecture at this range though)

Depends where you live in the UK

Lol. I need the Atlantic fronts bumping into the cold flow for the snow to be significant, so the Atlantic can edge in as much as it needs to (but not to much ) However this is a great example of the thread in general, and why we had a flurry of posts questioning different members take on what the models show. for example... Im not particularly interested in snow showers packing in from the east (they rarely get this far west)....my interest lies with frontal snow edging in from the Atlantic. Others in the south east would prefer those showes from the east, and those in Scotland probably are not that interested at all in the easterly if it's snow they are after. ( the one caveat being a repeat of Feb 91 or Jan 87 etc) So even though it shouldn't happen, it's pretty well certain most will comment on the models initially from there own locations perspective.

I thought it was the opposite ? The South Pole is surrounded entirely by ocean! (Away from the land mass in the main) With no topography to slow the vortex it just spins on? im sure someone with all the info will enlighten us

So much to say, but I'm pretty sure it's all been said regarding the current output! Lots of modelling to come with this upcoming period. So for now UKMO 144 is my favourite chart of the evening I won't post it as I'm sure it's been posted. happy rollercoastering :0

At 192 EC finally cold enough for any encroaching fronts to fall as snow

Blocks not going anywhere on EC just a shame that the real cold air is isn't in place before this stage. Many more twists and turns to come I think .

My main observations from tonight's euros are twofold Firstly, the orientation of the high at 144 (at face value) is poor for the UK in terms of proper cold. Yes the surface will be chilly with a continental feed but snow chances are limited for now. EC and GEM at 144 Secondly, and more positive for coldies in a way, is how much mild air is entrenched over Greece and the majority of central Southern Europe! HOW MANY TIMES have we seen the "potential" cold flow modelled to hit us at 144 ultimately end up heading down there! Though with the temperature gradient between the cold encroaching south and the warm air coming north (to our east) then surely those SPOILER SHORTWAVES that will enevitably appear may actually help us by spinning up at the cold/mild boundary and help to advect the cold air to our shores. Something to watch IMO.

broader pattern solid on EC just orientation of the high not perfect on the 00z (at 168) with regards to 850s, still would be bitter at the surface, would it be cold enough for any undercut to deliver some frontal snowfall? Not sure. Though small adjustments would drag in the much much colder air. Edit at 192 orientation adjusts to a much more favourable position

Haven't read beyond the last page (just got in) but it seems like plenty of drama has ensued today!! Thats what makes the winter MOD thread so addictive. But going on GEFS, UKMO and what looks to be a solid GEM this potential easterly has legs. GFS ens show the op to be quite mild within its suite. Eyes down form ECM

Cold air sinking south, snow risk associated with the main low now centred over Cornwall moving south with the cold air, then there's the showers hitting the east coast. Nice chart

MOGREPS has a marked influence on BBC/met forecasts. I would love to see it lol. Sounds pretty solid on the cold making it to the U.K going by reports in the thread. For us mear mortals we shall just have to wait and see.

Abbie and BFTP ...... you guys must have a teleconnection :0 both posted exactly the same chart and picture!! Spooky!

In a way I'd prefer, at this timescale, for the mild air to be close. Seeing Greece etc flooded in warm 850s gives me hope that the eventual outcome may bring that cold air to our latitude rather ban sinking miserably down to south east Europe.

This is certainly a possibility, it's going to be a close call how things eventually settle, but the door is definitely ajar for that colder flow to establish. Lets hope we trend in the right direction over coming runs as the possibilities are pretty good. happy new year one and all edit at 192 our little beaut of a high grows some dog biscuits :0

GEM 168, easterly wind picking up .