chris55

That'll do, I mused yesterday we may well see a combination of Euros vs GFS with regard to the 'initial' slider, and today UKMO and GFS have moved toward each other coming up with a nice combination of yesterday's 12zs. slider low moving into the established northerly flow resulting in frontal snowfall somewhere on its north eastern edge, placement will change but tonight's runs are peachy Imby overall, and beyond, we look to be in a situation where this could well be the first of many snowfall possibilities right across the country from various directions/sources. game on for winter proper :):):)

We often talk about a middle ground route being a good bet taking a mix of the models to look for a medium term solution. With ECM taking the slider to Far East and GFS dropping it to far west something in the middle would be perfect often in these situations we see the pattern back west, we shall see, just need the Iceland wedge to hold on a tiny bit more. gfs 144 ecm 144

Background trends look to be on the money IMO. Yes we seem to have lost the initial projected northerly after the current cold spell, but instead of a unilateral barrage from the Atlantic we keep seeing blocking signals and cold incursions. Plenty to keep us coldies interested! As highlighted by the GFS 12z

Is it cause or effect? Can a shortwave 3000 miles away really have that much influence alone on the downstream pattern?? Or does the longwave synoptic forcing allow such features to grow and develop?

Colder trend around the 5th onwards is gaining support on the GEFS 12z - London ens

As has been pointed out GFS 264 is a peach for those in the "middle". Way to far out to take seriously but deffo worth a chart upload :):):)

You do realise this chart is for the 6th December yes? Therefore the conversation is irrelivent.

Well that sums things up bloody perfectly steady as she goes.

The ECM is a rare evolution going from recent winters (but a convincing one) Pretty much every single time we see a mid Atlantic ridge bringing a colder north/northwesterly, and the acossiated northerly snow showers and odd frost down south, the jet will inevitably or even inexorably ride over the top, but no.....ECM gives us a solid block and link up with the Arctic heights, producing a proper blocked set up. Timing looks favourable for a change! :0

Cold set of ensembles from GFS, below average and unsettled at times. Not screaming powder snow lol, but if conditions are favourable snowfall would be a possibility.

Little low incoming between 96-120 could well produce some northern edge snowfall as it tracks the uk from west to east. Central areas look potentially in the firing line. Then we have an attempt at what could possibly be quite a substantial ridge being thrown up by the Azores high, nothing to spectacular on this run, but worth watching.

Cold set of ens from GFS after the milder peak a steady fall behind the front then a cold and changeable picture, night frosts in clear spells and even the possibility of hill snow down south.

Ukmo 144 looking decent with strong north westerly developing and potentially colder air thereafter

With the broad scale pattern determined to a point for the medium range, i.e. Negative AO with a west based NAO I have a feeling our patch could well get in on the action at some stage going forward. Grower not a shower comes to mind with the NWP at this point. We shall see, but tonight's ECM does sink the cold further south so you never know. Certainly an early start to the silly season

About 5 runs on the GFS runs manage to pull the cold air south around the 23rd, so the Op is not without some clustering support, though in the minority. london

Milder southerly airmass looks odds on in the mid term, as opposed to the potentially colder medium range outlook we were seeing a few days back. 12zens highlight the firming up of the milder outlook, still some scatter and some colder runs not out of the question, but the overall shift is to move the colder air from the incoming high latitude block to far north and west to effect the U.K.

00z ensembles show a big spread with still a decent cluster of colder runs around 25th, the op in the milder camp. london

When does it ever lol (especially in the MOD) Overall id say more than enough to keep the coldies (including me) interested. Inter run nuances aside (ops and ensemble suits) the overall longwave pattern forecast remains the best we have seen in November sine 2010.

A distinctly cool FI being shown at the moment, certainly worth keeping half an eye on as we head though the month.

New thread for the upcoming winter is a good idea nick

Haven't posted for ages, snow and cold seems to be my vice lol. However with an important outside event upcoming (26th) and potential hurricane Gert set to potentially and finally shift the jet north, the mid term NWP is on my radar! I'm pretty sure we will finally break this awful August at some point (we have to, surely?) and the models are finally hinting at such a change. A long way to go mind, here's hoping summer gets a reset towards the end.

Cotswolds above about 200 meters could get some snow tomorrow, especially if you believe the BBC app! If we manage some solid heavy ppn I would not be surprised to see some wet snow down to lower levels. Ppn intensity will be key for snowfall.

Wouldn't be surprised to see some snowfall around, especially on the hills, with charts like this being shown. Nothing bone chilling and more wet than white, but with some night time cooling and evaporative cooling, in any heavy bouts of ppn I certainly would not rule out snow.

I still see risk of frontal snowfall somewhere in the mix with the projected synoptic pattern, we shall see.

I don't see a major "spoiler" so to speak like we did back in Jan with the track of that Azores low, it's more an eastward/westward correction and how far west we can manage to pull that continental flow. As long as we can achieve a flow off the continent chances of snowfall will follow. Now I know many in the south east are looking for those very cold 850s to land for the convective snow showers to develop, and they may well get dragged in, but for now I'm happy if we can simply get that continental influence in.