chris55

My girl enjoying the snow earlier

Im not sure either with regard to the blizzard mmentioned lol' and have not seen the forecast, but i remember Ian Ferguson mentioning something on twitter yesterday about a small system 'within' the low potentially causing snow risk.this afternoon. IF that line of heavy ppn does decide to begin rotating within the wider flow then i can see why Bris/Glos may be in the firing line?

Dew points have been our downfall today, such huge amounts of snow falling since 3am here but struggled to build up as much as it 'could' have, if all had accumulated I reckon we would have a foot! Still a pretty decent event mind and a good covering just a bit wet in places at 80meters asl, though a real solid blanket above 150 meters. Just started snowing again, and hopefully the Dew Points can fall enough to let it all settle as we move to evening and give a nice crisp topping overnight.

Never seen so much snow falling, though wasn't really building up due to higher dew points. Still got a huge dump of slushey snow this morning and now starting to settle properly at my level ( 80m asl), prob about 2-3 inches. ( Stroud glos) straight up the hill it a winter wonderland with 4 inches of much dryer snow.

Heavy wet snow here in Stroud, coming down thick and fast and has been for hours though dew points really need to fall as it's struggling to settle properly, got a covering for sure but all very wet. lets hope the pivot wraps the slightly lower dew points around allows for a cleaner covering

Now turned to heavy snow, was rain at 3am, the gritter just woke me up blasting up the hill. this could well be the heaviest snow I've seen since 2009. Good luck everyone else,

Heavy snow now, starting to settle, gritter woke me up blasting up the hill lol wrong thread lol ! Well it is 5am ha

Just woke up for toilet and raining currently, slightly sleety, hope it turns with evap cooling one the heavy stuff arrives

I'm 2 mins from Minch....though I don't fancy an ice cream hahah. Maybe some sledging

Hmmmmmmm liking that one Glos and now south glos potentially getting in on the action plus some even further south. Brecon Beacons seeing 40+ cm omg.

Come south !!!!! Ha Im pretty far north in the region on the western edge of the mid coltswolds, Stroud. so any adjustments south may well bring us up here slightly more chance of a covering.

NAE/ euro 4, we need southerly corrections initially, but as the low pulls away there may be a chance of a little snow for some. lets hope the models have this one slightly wrong and the snow ends up way south eh

I know this is the MOD thread, but the charts for Sunday into Monday are so complex and changeable the focus of discussion is firmly at this timescale, which is nice to see, I don't think I have seen the term "FI" mentioned for some significant time

With regards to the track of Sunday's low and associated snow potential I would be very impressed if the MET/BBC or any charts for that matter have this bang on and 100% accurate. They have the best info and charts but at the end of the day, with such a finely balanced system regarding snowfall, and with such fine margins over a tiny section of the globe I would say to anyone 'whithin' the risk zone, and that's from Bristol ish up to Manchester ish, sit back, relax, and have a good old fashioned Radar/lamppost watch come Saturday night/Sunday. Its so easy to get caught up in the small changes run to run, but the system is incoming and what will be will be regardless.

ECM edging south for Sunday's potential a few more corrections south and more of us may well be in the firing line. Carol on breakfast did just mention the M word lol, so as it stands those in the north of the region have a shot.

ECM definitely edging south with the initial slider Such a complex picture from this point onwards with the interaction of the trough to the east. Some places could see many many hours of snowfall initially from the slider then from the potential wrap around low!

What will be will be...... as long as that's a Cotswold pasting Sunday then I'm happy ???

It makes sense blue when looking longer range, with the obvious spreads, is a no brianer. But with the continued uncertainty of exact track and flow and the interaction with the trough out east an ensemble average seems sensible. i should imagine its quite rare, if this was an "all rain" system it wouldn't really matter. But the fact that disruptive snowfall could have a big impact locally means getting the forecast as accurate as possible is pretty important for warning etc, and even at such short range, with uncertainty, the ensemble spread is the only way to go.

This is turning into quite the saga...lol north v south v midlands v -insert posters back yard location- haha. (Though I'm good with the netwx model )

That ECM solution is intriguing, it's like it's trying so hard to find a way not to phase the slider with the trough in situ to the east, by creating that conveyer of small depressions. A situation like the 6z GFS where the two lows dont phase brings the highest risk of lowland snowfall regardless of the track (north or south). If the slider remains cut off, then things will be a whole lot more straightforward, I.e. ppn moves into colder air, turns to snow, then sinks away south east. If we get the two lows interacting/phasing then we get much moister air wrapped up within the system, and with our marginal ocean based climate then this will surely result in lots more sleet rain away from the higher ground. why can't it just be simple eh!! We will need luck on our side for Sunday to be white at lower levels. Still 0-0 at half time....... have a cuppa and come back for the second half

Yes Steve its key to keep it cut off from the trough to the eas with that little wedge of high pressure more apparent on the 6z, keep it clean and you lose the warmer flow, and bring the snowrisk further south.

Following the progress of the slider is sure to be fun over the next few days!! Position, angle of attack, westward progression, dew points, precipitation amounts, surface temps, wet bulbs, freezing level, surface wind direction, and how it interacts with the trough in situ to the east are all open to changes. Im pretty sure some of us will see some low level settling frontal snowfall, but who and will it last? 7am Sunday morning......front just moving into the cold air, snow on leading edge. How things eventually evolve will be fascinating.

Where the slider low goes....nobody knows Though it looks likely somewhere will see frontal snowfall come the end of the weekend. Plus we have the potent northerly and associated showers/streamers/troughs, interesting times.

Corrections west nearly always happen with these sliders modelled past day 4/5, wouldn't surprise me one bit if the initial slider ended up missing the UK entirely!!! Hopefully not! But the positioning is far from decided. Many more runs required before we can have confidence for our little island