chris55

Sunday could well be the day to watch, the way the models keep pushing back the Atlantic as the mid term comes closer means Sunday’s Atlantic push through could well end up disrupting and being the snow event........we shall see.

Heavy snow in Stroud, coming down thick and fast above 150 meters. just driven up Haresfield beacon in my new truck

First post of the season. Good evening to all my fellow winter enthusiasts:) After Inspecting the models tonight it does look like things are pivoting in favour of a continued colder set up- as opposed to an Atlantic push. However after 15 years of winter model watching I have come to the conclusion that ‘damp’ cold is not my friend. Cold 850s are great and all but bring me those cold dew points, get that air positively continental, get the pesky moisture out, let the sun shine, the nights crisp up, and the powder snow fall. Our moist air can be quite depressing when it ‘tries’ to be wintry. Drip drip ......no thanks. Crisp-cold-Arctic air yes please, marginal damp cold air, not a fan. I have now set my bench really high. Here’s to hoping this winter can deliver at least a few weeks of proper dry cold.

UKMO pretty remarkable with the evolution of the low to the west/south west come Sunday/Monday !!! winds remain resolutely easterly or north easterly for the majority, none of the milder southerly air getting into the mix at all :0 definitely some frontal snowfall in there I would think.

Well Ian Fergussan gave a 30% chance Easter would be milder on the radio earlier So I make that 70% probability of the block coming in and feeding us some v cold air yet again. And with the Atlantic knocking on the door some of us could well see more snowfall yet! He has been mentioning it for a few days now on local radio, never ever a ramp just highlighted the seemingly ever increasing risk.

I have heard much regarding #beast three on the radio/papers today and just thought to myself 'not going to happen' ............ this media lot are over playing it. However after viewing tonight's GFS I'm kind of doubting my resolve. Can we really be looking down the barrel of yet another proper cold incursion?? Easter day did catch my eye regarding snowfall for some lowand parts of the UK perhaps a white Easter is not such long shot! if we do end up with more lowland snowfall into April then this spell induced by the major SSW will ceratinly go down in the record books with even more extraordinary stats than we have experienced thus far. amazeballs!

You guys in Cheltenham yea? I'm only 100meters, but in these non marginal set-ups elevation doesn't make that much difference. radar is suggesting something heavier is on the way so perhaps an hour or so of more significant snowfall

Light snow at present, dusting to bare surfaces

The brighter echoes look to be headed our way surprised me when I looked at the radar I thought the snow was done with us for the day. Ice surprise

Yep, plenty coming up from the south and with the area of low pressure very very slow moving the feed of the channel will just keep coming

And @EllyTech .....how's your waters this morning x;)

Woke up to a nice covering and thought that's good, but the back edge is probably passed now, at least I've got enough to test the SnowRing with my niece! then looked at radar :0:0:0..,,. looks like the main zone is further east than forecast plenty of ppn coming up from the south. Could end up with a decent depth! Amazeballs

That more organised band of heavier ppn just approaching Oxford definitely looks to be shifting west/north west as it's getting pushed from the south within the developing pivot, may provide something a little heavier for some within the hour

Looks like we are starting to see some circulation centred around the isle of white with the ppn beginning to pivot.

Persistent snizzle here in Stroud for the last few hours, a dusting to most surfaces except roads. hopefully we can get some heavier stuff in later for a decent covering. Got my niece here tonight (6 years old) and had a giant Snow ring, huge rubber ring - 54 inch :0 delivered today, so would be nice if we get enough for some 'sliding' tomorrow. with all the snow we have had this year I haven't been out with little ones sledging yet so tomorrow is our last chance!

Let's see how those waters performed this time tomorrow hahaha

^^^^Hirlam looking good

Well it does look to be intensifiing as it's building west. plus its early doors, it wouldn't surprise me if we ended up with a decent covering come Sunday morning, it will be a case of watching the radar and seeing how the night unfolds nowcasting is always my favourite. forget your bet and enjoy the 4 inches by tomorrow

Met office radar looks to be pepping up the ppn as it's heading west towards the region, that first little wave could well hit some Bristol/glos area

A case of model limitations, obviously the model that creates the graphics is not necessarily seeing the snowfall at this range hence the graphics (we are seeing divergence between the high res models in our Internet world as well) I did like how she skipped the nighttime graphics with the warning graphic though........highlighted the risk vs the graphics. it was much easier when they had magnetic symbols....;)

ECM hinting at a continuation of the cold flow on the 12z. It has looked probable the high will sink and the milder Atlantic air will ride in from the west.....however tonight's ECM just 'suggests' that path might not be a foregone conclusion..... One to watch! at 96 the potential for some renewed WAA west of Iceland could well support the high. The 12z still sinks the high but never really gets the Atlantic system through 144 Then we get further trough disruption and southerly tracking lows.

That's a direct hit! All the wobbles regarding the main cold pool heading south seem to be dispelled.

Pretty much a direct hit on the EC this morning. Should be some heavy snow showers around at the weekend.

You've also got to factor in how the models will not have things nailed post 72/96 due to the unusual nature of the Synoptics. Expect lots of changes between now and next week regarding details and progression of the pattern

Ground warming will effect inland convection at this time of year, so even if we don't see fronts delivering snowfall (which I think we could well see for some) there is a high chance of some beefy snow showers popping up quite widely away from the coasts due to the time of year. One to watch if we do end up with 850s of -10/-15 inland as long as we are away from the centre of the high.