chris55

How about a pear shaped hole....now that would be a kick in the dog biscuits! Have faith. fingers crossed that the front is full of heavy returns for most

This ‘event’ is now in the realms of nowcasting! 24 hours out and the models have the best data they are going to get. From here on in it’ll be a case of watching the radar (and a sneaky peak at EURO 4) to decipher how this front will engage with the cold air. North-south/ heavy or light. should be a good day tomorrow for many. looking forward to watching how this pans out

Yes Wolf, we are well placed with the north/south uncertainty, right in the middle. We just need the ppn to be at a good rate, but with the pivot that should provide a longer period of ppn. An active front is what we need to get some meaningful depth. But as I said above latest EURO 4 looks

Latest EURO 4 looking excellent! An improvement on the 00z So the worries in the mod thread are now superseded by the latest high res output IMO

Bank

This is only till 6pm on Thursday, the band is just moving inland.

Some decent 18z runs regarding Thursday, a more intense front -with a better angle of approach - drawing in more of an easterly/continental component as the ppn sets in. Should mean more snow for those further south.

HIRLAM looking better for those further south as well

Being north in the region ICON not looking to bad tonight, liking the way the front trys to pivot and return south. You can also see why the area south of Dublin keeps being highlighted as a spot for the heaviest falls, as the east flow keeps feeding moisture of the sea.

Initially i read that wrong......Old.....

UKMO top charts, MOGREPS average chart.

are the EC46 anomaly charts out, if so can someone post them. Thanks.

Are we sure ICON is capable of such detail, looks about the right zone geographically (maybe a bit to far north) but the depths look a bit haphazard to be honest. The resolution looks a bit vague, if the blues are representing altitude they are missing the cotswolds and chilterns, also the moors in the south west, though it has picked out the high ground south of Dublin.

yes that works for me! Great tip, thanks. (Apple iphone xr)

Going forward, GFS 12z synopticly is one to watch, the MET longer range forecast keeps banging on about "north easterly winds" or "Easterly winds". The GFS 144 shows that isn't impossible! Developing UK ridge....Arctic high moving west.....

Yes thats right. 90% probably view on mobile these days, i know i normally do, just happen to be on PC today as have been doing tax returns lol. But that is an issue the team should try to resolve if at all possible, otherwise you have to actually visit someones account page to see where they are (if they have added it to their profile) edit - KATEMART just advised landscape mode shows the location like in PC mode, and it does.

Going forward, GFS 12z synopticly is one to watch, the MET longer range forecast keeps banging on about "north easterly winds" or "Easterly winds". The GFS 144 shows that isn't impossible! Developing UK ridge....Arctic high moving west.....

The position of the front is still undecided, watching the met live feed earlier the high res models had snow from a range of Dorset up to Yorkshire! ECM was further north, UKMO further south, MOGREPS had highest risk south Wales/M4 corridor. If the front ends up pushing further north, then the south of the M4 could see rain, if it ends up struggling to move north then south of the M4 will see snow as well. My sweet spot would be between Yate and Hereford. Here is the MOGREPS for Thurs-Fri. Yellows represent 20-40% chance of settling snow (1cm) Oranges and reds more chance. You can see the geographical range of the yellows from Somerset to Yorkshire. Still a way out though, and lots to be decided. Wouldn't surprise me if the front ended up much further south, with the snow risk following.

just turning to sleety snow here in stroud

Love an app that shows snow lol Best this one has looked for Thursday night

ARPEGE for Thursday I work out upto 15cm of snow for some hourly charts.

Cotswolds not a bad place to be Thursday. I know there is a few of us Cotswolders on here! fingers crossed tomorrow, potential-dusting.Thursday, potential- dumping

Thursday is getting interesting now, the lows track looks pretty good, with the mild sector being pushed south, and the ppn hanging around for a long time given the nature of the set up (it’s not a simple front passing through) Tomorrow is just the opposite, with a skinny front moving east, may well be some snow on it but doubt it will be much. Perhaps a covering for some further north and east. But having said that it will be a nowcast event, so keep an eye on the radar

At 144, as it stands, EC wrapping cold north easterlies back in. Looks loaded going forward as well....

More of a ‘slide’ needed on EC, to stop those slightly milder 850s wrapping round. Good positioning of the low centre slipping into Bisacy but the shape is unhelpful. Changes are perfectly plausible the way things are going at the moment!