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chris55

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Everything posted by chris55

  1. chris55
    The next phase is yet to be decided.... the models are feeling around for the new trend. background singnals are good..... watch this space... Feb will come in like a lion
  2. chris55
    The euros tomorrow morning will be crucial!! And I don’t say that often. if EC op backtracks and UKMO persists then we should be fine. If tonight’s EC gathers momentum and support then it could be curtains, for the mid term anyway. Beyond this all options still available.
  3. chris55
    Naughty ECM. Go sit in the corner and come back when your ready to play ball!!
  4. chris55
    192 is rubbish...... one run...one model...so not a disaster perhaps a good leveller for us. Shows what is possible, if not preferable.
  5. chris55
    EC slow with real cold, 168 shows a stumble, very plausible, doesn’t look like a bust by any means, just slower. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the run unfolds.
  6. chris55
    That is by far the most intense Euro trough/easterly combination I have seen since I started model watching back in 2006. Looks like an 80s vintage bbc forecast chart. if this comes off snow showers would pack well inland...right across the UK I should think!! Not to mention troughs and fronts embedded.
  7. chris55
    This did catch my eye on the raw GFS 12z run, the 850s looked rather chilly following on behind the trough....that ppn chart confirms. Tuesday could be interesting....and then there is the rest of the run to savour. Good stuff all round
  8. chris55
    That’s an incredible set up! Especially good for frontal snowfall potential in the West Country! And it all starts to set up at a reasonable timeframe with the Azores undercut. lovely jubbly
  9. chris55
    Updated at 1am. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/gcnqmefn4#?date=2019-01-18
  10. chris55
    Still a long way to go regarding this potential spell. Cool to cold in the short to mid term but the very coldest charts are still quite a way out at days 7 plus on EC and gfs. Although the overall trend is excellent the details and eventual outcome still to be decided. The fact EC46 and the recent SSW are major factors in this does give me more confidence in the longer term, but you never can be certain eh!
  11. chris55
    Facinating GFS 12z, in all my years model watching I don’t think I have ever seen a mainland Europe/scandi cold pool actually move north and west, instead of being shunted south and east into Greece as you would expect!! Maybe the SSW is finally downwelling with some intent :0 crazy run FI run!! some serious Europe wide undercutting there. Yes the cold 850s haven’t made it to our patch yet but the synoptics are remarkable and loaded.
  12. chris55
    Excellent consistency between GFS and UKMO at 144, that’s a rare statement to make.. but may speak volumes if the models can finally agree on the mid term outcome. Momentum gathering on the colder scenario shown by EC 46 anomaly charts. Let’s hope EC det follows suit.
  13. chris55
    This is sooooooo true!!! A cold chart is the MOD thread elixir. The peak of the rollercoaster, whether it verifies is of little concern when gauging the mood of the thread. But it’s all good fun
  14. chris55
    Ignoring the mild 850s pilling in from the Atlantic.....the overall synoptic pattern is mint and should allow for continued cold air to eventually make it back into the mix.
  15. chris55
    Less Imbyism lol, though once the cold is established snowfall can crop up anywhere!
  16. chris55
    At 216 kind of similar to 1991 ........ nice little pool of -10s for the south of the uk
  17. chris55
    EC 192 wettered. synoptics great, those cold 850s incoming!
  18. chris55
    Oh er missus!! EC 168 should raise some eyebrows :0
  19. chris55
    For all the newbies, ride the rollercoaster, for the oldies....just get off and watch
  20. chris55
    Look at the amount of energy heading down into the euro trough (not to be taken as a forecast ) though does remind me of dec 2010! A large chunk of the PV effectively taking up residence over France :0 (SSW influenced I should think)
  21. chris55
    The EC op just shows how fickle the modelling situation (and the thread) is at the moment. Expectations should be limited more than usual at present. Hold off placing confidence in any run beyond days 4-5. Lots of options forthcoming
  22. chris55
    And just to add, this ‘slider’ looked to only affect the short term, ECMs evolution says otherwise. The difference between EC and GFS highlight how the path of the low and associated energy could support a surface high ahead (or not in the case of gfs)
  23. chris55
    This slider and it’s evolution is proving turbulent, yet another solution on EC in the mid term. Though IMO this looks the most favourable for cold to take hold. ec 120
  24. chris55
    ECM fridgid this morning with a very cold surface high and hardly a breath of wind from day 5 out to the end. The cold would really begin to build with harsh frosts. Chance of some disturbances moving in at the end as well. Brrrrrrrr
  25. chris55
    The very cold run is the control (and thats the extended ens suit) the op is cold at the surface for deblit because of the high pressure holding to the east on the EC op out to day 10 (though there is a slight uptick lurking behind the text towards days 9/10)
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