chris55

What’s that second little feature off the tip Wales! Could liven up the PPN as it swings in. Just highlights that this upcoming spell could well be full of short notice surprises with the instability of the airmass and the output!!

Gfs 18z takes low well to the south, just to weak a feature. A very plausible option, but until we get some cross model agreement, track and intensity still undecided.

Difficult to say if it will even make it this far north! These lows ‘usualy’ trend south, however on this occasion, and looking at that ECM mean there does look to be a chance that it will have enough ommph to track in the channel- instead of France. May of us will be watching the track very closely I should think .

The para really ramps up the channel low, perfect positioning for a southern UK snow event

UKMO a Peach Para also looking good for Tuesday it seems looking at the posts above (will have to check) The intensity of Tuesdays lows is crucial to how much it ‘spins up’ and subsequently that energy will push it north towards our shores. Not massively confident in its track at this stage though. beyond that UKMO looks great. lots of options....... lots of fun. But going forward UKMO is a stellar scenario.

I don’t really have faith in the blow up low at 144, at 120 EC and UKMO both have nice developments, the little ridge ahead slowing the merging of the trough to the east with the one to the west. Hole fire on any confirmation of the pattern. I do recall an overblown trough dropping into Europe and bringing us a stonking easterly.....then it all went tits up. The trough ended up filling.

If only it was that simple. Raw data used on apps change from hour to hour depending on what time it is and which raw data set they use. Raw data should be accurate at days 1-2-3 but beyond this they will change often. Next weeks details are no where near being settled, with all the data available human interpretation is crucial to narrow down the options. So a snow symbol (or a rain) on an App may be nice to look at, but at range it’s pretty useless (unless there is a very definite we’ll modelled pattern/pattern change coming) The low on ECM is one OP run, unless it becomes consistently shown and has support from other models, then it really means nothing in terms of a meaningful forecast, though it does show what is possible in the projected pattern.

Loving that little channel low on ECM! Plenty of snow for a large chunk of England and Wales. just shows how many variations we are going to be seeing with this set up.

GFS ensembles show how much uncertainty there is around the track position and shape of the incoming low later next week, so much scatter with the a spread of between -10 and plus 5. Control stays very cold

Yet more solutions on the table from the 12z suit. Sliders look to be merging with the main trough to far north subsequently cancelling out the cold flow for the majority. Then we have UKMO looking loaded past 144........we have seen this before lol. FI deffo still out at 120 but the trend tonight is not great.

At the range these sliders are being modelled the northern edge snow could literally be anywhere between the West Country and the Scottish Boarders. if the pattern verified as being suggested many could see snow especially if we get a wrap around of the cold air in one of these lows. lots to be decided, a very complex forecasting task. Should keep us busy.

6z with lots of sliders and snow potential on the boundary. Way to far out to be taking the details seriously but a nice trend. Some places could be absolutely buried.

I guess it’s sensible to take output in the mid term (120+) with an open minded approach. Many options on the table (as is normal) but with the current synoptic pattern ,well away from our normal prevailing westerly/zonal flow, and with the SSW influence ,the models will not necessarily pick out the correct solution as we head into each individual model run. Lots of options available, nothing set in stone. should prove for some excellent discussion in the coming weeks.

They actually will! Feb will be a beast of a month. When we are digging ourselves out and BBC breakfast is all of a flutter.....we can sit back and bask

Way to much emphasis/confidence being placed on operational and ensemble data at 120h plus. This synoptic pattern is away from the norm, the standard westerly flow is disrupted, the models will struggle to pick out the correct solution at this range in this pattern. Changes will be coming daily beyond 120. edit. ^^^ I hadn’t seen Matts tweets before my post so it seems I’m on the same page lol.

Oh no....ECM 216 shows MILD how will we cope.

Hmmmm, I think that might be called ‘model.....output.....ummmmmm discussion’

Surely that UKMO 144 chart going forward would see an undercut by the trough to the west, with the Greenland heights being sustained. Just look at the negative tilt and WAA. A ‘collapse’ or ‘topple’ doesn’t look likely I me.

Where does the UKMO collapse??

UKMO looking good tonight, I’m liking the flow at 96, nice alignment of the cold north/north westerly, with a runner coming down the west, could well be some Snow showers in the flow. Then the 144 cheat looks loaded going forward. GFS op a mild outlier. Will await ECM UKMO 96 -144

Little snow shower passed overnight in Stroud. lovely scenes this morning

The change will happen way before 240!! Stop looking so far out... since when has a cold pattern ever set up at day 10 then magically moved through the dates to land majestically at T0......well never!!! We nearly always get a slow evolution from around days 5-6. Obviously it helps if the background signals are favourable (which they are at present). So eyes peeled for 120-168.....

This could be an omen.....when the recent easterly suddenly disappeared it was the lesser ICON model that first picked it up, around 120 IIRC. Then ECM followed. Now this evening we have the lesser GEM picking up this Artic/Scandinavia high and the ECM is following suit. Somethings afoot I tell ya

Hmmmm, EC 120 is catching my eye.....wouldn’t take much to allow this building cold pool to advance towards us. A very cold Artic/ North Scandinavia high in the making. is the Op being to progressive subsequently allowing the Atlantic to push through?? One to watch. t

February will be the coldest in a generation. That statement means I don’t have to hang on every run till at least the 25th