chris55

I disagree with that! The elongating is a good thing! GFS separates the trough with most of the energy heading into the southern section meaning we will be stuck in mild south/south west winds.

UKMO a peach tonight. The way it deals with the big Low exiting Newfoundland is excellent, holding it in position with some WAA and subsequently good disruption. Hugely important we get trough disruption rather than a southerly tracking ‘intact’ system as this will just bring mild southerlies. This low is massively important in terms of Christmas weather IMO. UKMO best option I have seen so far. Nothing hugely impressive showing locally at 144 but overall the pattern it ??

Overall the wet and windy theme looks to continue ...cold vs mild sectors ...however I am seeing a shadow of potential around day 7 and it’s been there for a few runs. Looks like a potential disruption of the flow could happen. At this range the models are just ‘dipping the toe’ lol but hopefully we can build on it. GFS 144-168

With the potential displacement looking favourable in terms of location the fact that we might not see an official SSW is irrelevant. At the end of the day the reason we look out for an official SSW is to get the Strat Vortex off it’s perch. That means either moving it into a favourable position- split it in two - or destroy it completely, with one of these outcomes ultimately bringing cold to the UK. An official reversal isn’t necessarily needed with a displacement if its displaced in the right place, and there is some connection between Strat and Troph. Looking at Matt Hugo’s twitter post deffo one to watch

Look at those rainfall spikes...or the lack of....FINALLY!!! It’s going to be dry...!!!!! For a while at least Where we end up regarding winter wonderlands is another matter, but for me that dry period is so welcome.

I’m quite liking the possibilities moving on from the 168 gfs operational... Going forward on this particular run and it’s quickly flattened allowing the Atlantic back in toppling the block. However at day 7 plus, all options still open IMO, so for me a good chart overall. edit....and not to shabby to start proper winter (just noticed it’s for 1st December).

GFS goes into the freezer with a lovely snowstorm developing in the strong northeast flow An outlier towards the end but a cluster of colder scenarios gathering pace.

Winter is approaching and model interest is spiking lol. Im coming out of the woodwork to post ECM.... lovely set up as we approach official winter. Strat looking interesting as well. Could we be looking at a classic winter? Current data suggesting potential

Just seen a snowy pic from Minch on Breakfast. I’m down at 30meters asl and nothing here. Might have a little drive up in my truck shortly. Will grab some pics if it’s any good.

You can see the really high temps clipping into the east/north east of the region on the 2pm temps. Heathrow at 37c :0

It really ‘feels’ incredibly hot, the humidity along with the super high temps are getting on for the hottest I’ve ever experienced in the UK. Incredible heat.

That cell was intense!!! Lighting literally constant for a good 40 mins. Lots of fork lightning in there as well and good thunder. Haven't seen a storm like here in many many years. Cool!! Could be more building behind as well.

Just relaxing in the garden after a very hot day at work! The breeze is unbelievably warm and the clouds are building ahead of the potential thunderstorms tonight. Fingers crossed we get one head on ?. Really lovely to experience the extremes of summer, as it is to do the same in winter. The extreme heat Thursday looks just a tad to far east to break any records here in Stroud but looks mad elsewhere. Enjoy or loathe this spell wherever you are (depending on your preference) the weather plays a massive part in all our lives and this spell is one to remember. Some huge raindrops starting to fall now, just spots, I know the main thunderstorm risk is for later behind this showery section but certainly ‘feels’ primed out there for something.....

Just relaxing in the garden after a very hot day at work! The breeze is unbelievably warm and the clouds are building ahead of the potential thunderstorms tonight. Fingers crossed we get one head on ?. Really lovely to experience the extremes of summer, as it is to do the same in winter. The extreme heat Thursday looks just a tad to far east to break any records here in Stroud but looks mad elsewhere. Enjoy or loathe this spell wherever you are (depending on your preference) the weather plays a massive part in all our lives and this spell is one to remember.

Nice to see UKMO with the high pushing in at the end of the run camping next weekend so been hoping for a shift in the pattern. Along with GFS there looks to be some hope. ensembles also looking a little more compact and in agreement than of recent days, definite drying/warming trend.

Are we seeing a super delayed reaction to the SSW back in Jan??? The model trends and actual synoptics have been way to easterly for it to be chance..... been away for to long, I’m sure this has been discussed. But it looks likely IMO.

So is it possible that the SSW that refused to down-well earlier in the season is now driving the synoptic pattern with all this northern blocking? Or is it just a naturally variable?

Winter is done guys and girls, spring is here, the nights are drawing out. Of course snowfall is still more than possible (even likely for some). But we are on the ‘other side’ now heading away from winter into spring/summer. It’s been a poor winter season generally for many (though not here, heaviest snowfall for 10 years!) so in term of the big freeze we turn our attention to next winter Current models looking unsettled and cool, perhaps even below average for March.

Another potential snow event for m4 corridor (north or south) on the EC, won’t verify exactly as shown but highlighting a risk as we head beyond this balmy spell.

From this to this ... Regardless of how the colder (more average) pattern develops it’ll certainly feel bloody freezing in comparison to what we have been enjoying.

Gfs and the Euros handling the low out west quite differently! Gfs has it north phasing with the main trough while EC takes it well south as a closed system..... (as does UKMO at 144) the euro solution could open the door to a very cold synoptic pattern to establish into march. could we go from +21 to -21 in as many days.

Three weeks ago today I had this in my front garden - Three weeks later and it’s getting on for 17c with light winds and lots of sunshine . Can winter dig back in before the seasons move to far beyond the potential? March can certainly deliver when it comes to cold and snow so I’d say don’t throw the towel in quite yet, but enjoy the early spring either way.

UKMO 144 lots of very cold air filtering down to the north east. Can the pattern evolve to back it west? Who knows? At face value it can’t be discounted. Just a nudge here and there and we’d be in business.

GFS para and the control run go cold beyond day 10, para quite snowy. Would be a shock to the system after the current mild weather.

Quick flick through the runs tonight and GFS 168 caught my eye. Could March deliver some snowfall....maybe.