chris55

Spring may well be approaching but the ensembles are trending back to winter! After what could be record February warmth I wouldn’t mind a bit of March snowfall

I’ll never forget that event! Heaviest snow for 9 years here, was amazing! Without it I’d have put this winter down as crap, but snow falls like that don’t come around very often so I’m really pleased with winter 18-19 based solely on this event.

When the beast hit last year at the end of Feb, I was renovating a house, no heating and a big hole in the building (extension going up) it was so cold my tea actually froze in my cup while working inside!! Now as much as I love the snow and frost that was pretty extreme to be working in, and not much fun to be honest. Move forward a year and again I’m renovating a house with no heating, though we have doors and windows this time lol. So the current charts are actually really quite welcome!! It is a shame many haven’t seen snow this winter (though many have) and the winter as a whole has been disappointing with the absence of a prolonged freeze up, but you have got to love the extremes of the UK weather, from the GREAT BEAST to the GREAT BASK in a year! Get those BBQs out

I’m spotting a little change in the euros tonight... Details regarding short waves/wedges etc will only be spotted in the mid range (96-144) we are now entering that timescale moving into next week with the Atlantic trough stalling against the Uk/euro high. Both EC and UKMO put up a wedge of high pressure around Iceland, that wedge is allowing those colder 850s to move around and eventually down into Europe (on this run). It a long shot but i could potentially see this area influencing the pattern overall, for a colder set up evolving than is being shown. One to watch IMO

Look at all that WAA, the building blocks are there. Not in the right place initially but cold easterlies are often preceded by this type of pattern.

EC at 48 - this little low is new? Just a wave on the other models. probaly to mild for snow but if the flow can wrap around and drag in colder air on its northern flank....

Loving the GFS 12z op. Shifts from +mild 850s down to -10 (Northern England) in 24 hours!!! FI of course, but something is definitely on the move with regards to the mid term pattern. Can we manage a cold end to winter, I think we could.

Two stragglers appearing in gfs ensembles. Trendsetters

Models gearing up for some epic cold charts evolving as we head into the latter third of Feb. Im waxing my sledge runners :0

How’s sat/Sunday’s storm looking? Hard to tell on EC raw data. any insights?

It’s all trends at this range but overall ECM trending cold

The scatter from the 12th has increased markedly on the GFS 12z ens compared to the 6z set! 6z 12z Still the mean goes mild, but confidence is low, and lots of options, including colder are on the table.

ECM getting blocked from 144, Atlantic halted. Would be cold and frosty for the majority with some fog. Potential then for the high to move into a more favourable position.

I’m guessing the METO have been seeing something similar in their longer range predictions (though to date nothing has materialised, and they have changed their tune this last week). It kind of makes you wonder if the potential is there but the NWP simply isn’t seeing it yet!? Time will tell.

ECM smelling the coffee at 120...... Its always tricky to place confidence in mid range changes when the longer range is so westerly! But as ever, and especially this winter, just watch and wait, the westerly bias in the models could well be off the mark heading forward. We shall see

Yep UKMO still got it’s bone at 168! (Cold bone) edit; this is a reference to my earlier post lol, nothing sordid hahaha

Yes John a good read. I remember some references to a ‘shearing’ front in here in the lead up, which intimated a weaker front, however it seems that shearing actually helped to cause that ‘slantwise’ instability, fascinating stuff!

This link was posted by Jtay in the regionals earlier today. Not necessarily model related but a really good write up on how the events of Thursday/Friday unfolded with the model output really struggling to pin down the forecast even at 12/24 hours! Worth a read, even for those who didn’t get any snow, as the perimeters are equal in any potential snow event (though rare it’s good to know what is possible). Some great pics as well, illustrative and factual. https://stratusdeck.co.uk/blog/conditional-symmetric-instability-the-struggles-of-forecasting-snow

Is that the ‘royal’ we But in all seriousness it can be really frustrating if the snow doesn’t fall locally. For some/many a few... the last week has been exceptional. Moving forward and it seems UKMO is like a dog with a bone, by far the best run two days in a row for some colder/blocked conditions. Can the mighty UKMO operational usurp the rest.... who knows but tonight’s run certainly looks interesting. Screaming out for a Greeny high there!

After a very cold start and a crisp morning. The snow is now disappearing, kind of an odd thaw mind, not really any dripping it’s just kind of evaporating. All in all a blooming fantastic snowfall, and definitely the heaviest falling snow I have seen in at least 10 years. Friday morning was epic in terms of visible falling snow, just about made 4 inches in about 3/4 hours (on top of the 2 inches that had fallen overnight) Here to the next one eh.

GFS para (aka FV3) highlights the potential shown on EC. overall the models are on the move. so much to be decided but certainly heading colder rather than milder.....

EC 168 The potential is there for some height rises over Greenland/Iceland. Regardless of how the run develops from here, a definite trend has been picked up over the last 24 hours for the mid term. The Atlantic onslaught is ‘questionable’. Doesnt surprise me! Sometimes I wish the models didn’t go past 168. Unless there is a very strong signal with cross model agreement, charts beyond this timescale are liable to wild changes. The models will always favour the default westerly pattern (as they should at that range) but it’s important to recognise (especially in this thread) charts tend to evolve from the earlier stages, effecting the longer term, rather than the longer term charts influencing the earlier timescales.

ECM not without interest at 120! complex trough with slider potential.....a small ridge between centres and some trough disruption out west. Could evolve a much colder pattern....one to watch.

Cold night out there last night, down to -10 at Benson.

Looks like Deer prints