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Everything posted by JRMcLeod
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Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13
JRMcLeod replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm not an expert, and i tend to follow a few regular posters comments on here but given the recent warm spell, and based on the uncertainty in the models, even at the short range, i am more inclined to lean towards this warm spell re-asserting itself after a mid week blip. I cant help but think the models want the "default" weather back to our shores...but i just can't see that happening yet. I would love to think we will have UK wide storms and potential but i cant see it. Maybe the South West and South Wales but other than that i dont see widespread storms. I cant seem to shake the feeling that this warm spell of calm weather will be with us until at least August, even (dare i say it) beyond that. The Atlantic is so quite i just cant see anything changing it. Until i see something "striking" i dont think HP will be far from UK shores at all. Maybe i'm wrong and clutching at straws but thats how i see it playing out! Fingers Crossed! -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards
JRMcLeod replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yippee, but that conversation is for another day. Looking good for NW England. Sat24 is showing signs of some pretty quick cloud growth. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards
JRMcLeod replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Can i remind you that the "whole of the UK" doesnt extend from Tyneside south. Almost half of the UK is north of here!!! Back on topic. I can see good storm potential for next week but as per the normal, the north misses out and instead i get to read all the southeners posts on how fantastic it is!!! -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
JRMcLeod replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I would have to say that there is a decidedly different feel about the weather today here in Aberdeenshire. It was raining in the early hours this morning and the humidity has increased a lot since yesterday. On the drive to work at 0830 it was 20oC and my minimum last night was 17oC (according to my garden station). I think today is meant to hit 25oC here. The clouds are quite bubbly, looks like there is a chance. Its one of those days where it just "feels and looks" like there could be a storm later. I know that sounds silly but thats how it feels. Will keep my fingers crossed! -
Honey bee losses double in a year due to poor winter
JRMcLeod replied to Coast's topic in Space, Science & nature
I read online somewhere that a recent study was published that illustrated that a lot of bees were being killed by the pesticides and GM plants that are being grown in the US. I think there is a combination of things killing them off. I hope one day they are not classed as an Endangered Species as their numbers are dwindling across the globe. -
I would have to disagree with your EDIT part. For the past 3/4 days all showers right here on the east coast have been snow and i personally dont see that changing anytime soon. Every morning i have awoken to a fresh dusting. Even the showers throughout the day (and Aberdeen has seen a lot) have been of snow or hail. I'm feeling confident that we will have a good amount of showers packing in and i have a feeling the front will actually get further north than forecast. Just my thoughts
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Been snowing non stop since 8am...lets hope it stays just a few more hours...This is Aberdeens turn
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Whats anyones thoughts on that "streamer" building in the NS heading towards Aberdeen (sat24)? I'm thinking 2 hours it'll make landfall...anyone got a better understanding of its precip type and its possibilities for Aberdeen?
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Pitiful. This entire snow event for the past 2 weeks has been dreadful for Aberdeen. Its grey, windy, cloudy...absolutely NO sihgn of precip. The Met-O must know an awful lot more than i do to still hold onto an Amber Warning...
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I'm resigning for the night, hoping something miraclous will occur over the 10 mile radius of Aberdeen where the temp is currently 3oC.... I have a single patch of snow remaining... Enjoy the snow everyone!
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Aberdeen has a crazy snow shield in place. If you would all like to revert to meteoradar and zoom in on Aberdeen and just watch the precip bounce off the "force field"....rediculous!
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Its unbelievable and wholly predicable, streams of snow showers to the north and south of Aberdeen. About 20 mils in either direction...Like a channel of nothingness heading towards Aberdeen. Typical...
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So LS are you suggesting a potential sleet event on Monday? What are the odds on snow for us coasties?
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
JRMcLeod replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
2010, it was better than we get in summer...and 2006!- 789 replies
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
JRMcLeod replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
I dont have a whole lot of confidence in the Met-O's 5 day forecast. Good example being my parents house in Rickarton. They are around 200m above sea-level, 8 miles from the coast and they are predicted for rain this weekend. I think they tend to generalise things a bit too much. I know from many years of living here that if we get an easterly, we get snow. Thats pretty much the rule for Aberdeenshire. Its not very often that a northerly or eastelry doesnt deliver here.- 789 replies
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
JRMcLeod replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
This is my lack of knowledge showing here but what does the red line with the hail symbol mean?- 789 replies
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>
JRMcLeod replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
See now this just confuses me. If we are looking at a SE or E flow for Scotland, why is all that snow in the North Sea not making any inroads? Am i missing something here? -
Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>
JRMcLeod replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Maybe its just me but some of the Model charts are showing a 2m temp of 3 degrees for Aberdeenshire as a minimum on Sat night. That cant be right surely... I am totally at a loss as to what to expect in term sof snow potential for teh East of Scotland. I was under the impression just 24 hours ago that we had good potential but no i am lost... Anyone have any words of wisdom? -
Wednesday 17th October 2012 - Weather And General Chat
JRMcLeod replied to The PIT's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
You guys are sitting in something tropical compared to us here in Aberdeenshire. Aberdeen Noon: 1oC Aviemore Noon: -4oC London Noon: 16oC Is bizarre that our little island can have such big contrasts at such short distances! -
Well the past couple of morning have had a very slight touch of frost on the car (barr this morning), and some slight ice on Loriston Loch in Aberdeen. Its certainly Autumn now, its a pity really as i still have a couple of weeks left to finish my garden...was really really hoping to get it done before the misery arrived...
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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 2
JRMcLeod replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I know this isnt to do with the UK but i recently returned from Nigeria and Cameroon and i have to say, if we get anything like the thunderstorms they get over there, i will be very very happy! (lightning strikes every second - literally). Here's hoping! -
Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 1
JRMcLeod replied to kold weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Dreadful, 2.7oC with rain here just south of Aberdeen -
Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 1
JRMcLeod replied to kold weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Maybe i'm looking in all the wrong places or totally misunderstanding the dynamics here but i'm struggling to see how this is going to be a significant SE area event. I'm no expert...far from it but i'm not seeing that front pass much further than central England before it fizzles out and stalls. If i were a betting man i'd say the midlands, NE England, SE/E Scotland would be in line for a decent show...just my thoughts tho -
Scotland - Regional Discussion - New Year
JRMcLeod replied to lorenzo's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Does anyone happen to know a good website, or a fairly reliable forecast for wind and mountain snow for Sat and Sun? Need to see if its likely to be windy or not and cold to prevent melt. I'm taking my 3 year old up skiing for the first time so would like to know what the chances are of Glenshee actually opening at the weekend... Any info would be great