frosty ground

January 6

im going daft i know it but an easterly looks possible

January 6

If I had a compliant about this run it’s the high is bottom heavy

January 6

23 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sorry if you don't like what i say just hit the ignore button i just say what i see I'm taking the runs as face value and that's what i see hopefully ecm is sniffing up the wrong agenda and falls in line with gfs & gem.

That replay makes no sense, my comment to you was one of ignoring wedges nothing more

January 6

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ukmo looks alright with a cut off high in a decent place...but still heights too the South are too strong..that would probably deflect the trough coming down from the north..or even delay,it doesn't look a clean evolution to me..but it's much better then ecm

The heights to the south give way, they have been like this for ages on the runs and by the time you get to day 8-9 & 10 The heights split and either go north west or south east..

January 6

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

It's the 2nd consecutive ecm operational to deliver crud. Last nights mean was a downgrade.. we would want to see that improve shortly to help

The GFS had a wobble the GEM had a wobble. Like I said the ensembles will help, no one is denying the direction of travel with the ECM Greenland high is better than a mid Atlantic high which can be better than a wedge

i still think a wedge would form after 240 chart.

January 6

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

This.. key message ecm goes wrong at day 6... ecm is top model at day 6.

Its one operational that ends with a probable wedge keeping the U.K. cold

It could easily be wrong being the best doesn’t stop that from happening, ensembles will be helpful

January 6

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Energy=temps. You can see the handshake between the mini-wave at D7 between the Atlantic ridge and the UK high. Equal pressures attract and exchange energy:

So, as the mini-wave moves east, we are left with residue heights in the Atlantic, feeding and supporting the nascent GH. There is not a strong interaction on the ECM:

So, no residue heights exist between the undercutting lows and the GH. Giving a weaker pattern that collapses. The trend is towards ECM; we could see this going either way. The reality is that the retrogression doesn't really happen now on the ECM, the UK high sinks SE. I was hoping this was not on the table, but it appears the models got this more wrong than right.

The issue happens before 168 thou, the lack of heights to the north west with increased low heights across the top of the high is what disrupts the Atlantic high retrogressing.

also some heights have sunk away south in most runs, in this case due it’s more, we are still left with enough heights bring in a northerly. With a wedge left behind.

i would say this run has the balance wrong but the ensembles will soon clear that up

January 6

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECM sends more energy from the UK high SE and minimal to the west. Where GFS sends more at D7; important WAA for building blocks to Greenland, this trend of seepage when the UK retrogresses is more apparent than two days ago:

You can see the yellows GFS -v- ECM in the Atlantic during the retrogression.

That doesn’t really make any sense, what energy is being sent south east?

the lack of heights over the Atlantic and Greenland causes the issue the higher heights to the south east have been on many a run these last few days.

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ecm gives us a 2 day Northerly clipper more runs needed

If you discount the wedge that’s going to form and keep the UK cold

January 5

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That low won’t happen

good ol fashioned pub run !

Which one

January 5

For some reason I’m seeing wedges and easterlies when this high, not clean cut but exciting probably 100% wrong but even if the trend that started on last nights 18z GFS is correct I think we are in for a wild ride with multiple chances of snow fall.

January 5

what is left of the low has made it across what is left of the high, should deepen and move south brining I. The cold air, but the high is so weak now it might just collapse.

I think something is up and hopefully the GGS isn’t onto what ever it is.

January 5

fading away and that little low is struggling to engage the artic air which will blow it up

January 5

Who invited this little bugger to the party

January 5

at 144 the low heights over Greenland are clearing quicker and the highs movement to the north west is more noticeable

January 5

A light push north west at this point other that small changes with the uppers early on nothing much has changed

January 5

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The shape of the block on the ICON 12 hrs run is similar to the ECM , also a similar set up towards the ne with the low .

Is it not quicker than the ECM?

January 5

8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

In other words don't believe anything GFS shows at a certain range!...no point of looking at it past 240z.

As I've mentioned before how little drama there'd be if you only followed the ECM and UKMO most winters but then again I know a number of posters get a buzz out of the chase whatever the outcome even though the success rate must probably be at 20/25% in such scenarios. Still all to play for and I for one would be surprised to see the Atlantic back in the next 2 weeks or so but without trying to sound like the new Ian Brown we are now in the 'large teapot so who knows!.

20-25% success rate would make this an easy hobby

January 5

two groupings after the 2nd shot of colder uppers, green following the op and control and blue following a large pack staying colder.

January 5

Just now, Djdazzle said:

If the GFS is right (it's a MASSIVE if), then it'll be a huge dent in the confidence of long range models, teleconnections and global drivers. It would, for me, be the final time that I ever trust them.

If the GFS in wrong (far more likely), it just reinforces the fact that it's a hopeless model.

ECM 12z will be a key run. I'd like to see the GFS also backtrack.

I think the output is based on a true GH which has been dented by this morning ECM op not ensembles and the last three GFS op with ensembles.

no true GH then we have to remember how the ECM over amplifies at day 10.

January 5

Scandi high chase anyone?

January 5

And it’s gone

high sinking mild sector incoming

at others have said let’s check this against its ensembles, but we can’t hide from the fact the GFS op and its ensembles are drops g the Greenland high.

January 5

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

Will be better than the 0z at least.

Not sure

the high is closer to the U.K. hence it will be drier also another low will develop and slip south red circle.

its going to get cold but this run looks very messy with mild sectors appearing

January 5

Just now, IDO said:

Yes, the trend for the GFS to move away from a GH continues, with no heights on this run (a Greenland low) and a mid-lat high in its place:

See where this takes us...

Yep that’s now a definite trend.

whilst the 06z is still coming out I think this will be the worst op run from day 10 onwards.

January 5

wheel secured heights now building into Greenland, still some energy over the northern edge but it looks to be draining.

edge of your seat stuff

January 5

Just now, TSNWK said:

Not seeing it..quiet a bit flatter with push into Greenland at day 7.. lows to west of Greenland look postive tilt..

Much flatter at day 8 over Greenland.. not good

much lower heights over Greenland on this run, not sure where the high is going to go.

i think we’ve lost a wheel on this run

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