frosty ground
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Posts posted by frosty ground
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Gives a good example of the weaker feature leading to a much smaller “mild” sector, snow all the way through on that.
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this would produce a few showers for our region-
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he comes the wave, no where near as developed so should bring less milder air with it.
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I don’t think there will be a second low coming south this time, better heights over Greenland has blocked any spillage across the ice shelf.
all in all a much cleaner run
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on this run we have a feature developing over Iceland that has help shift the pattern west slightly, could have a knock on affect latter on with the next parcel of energy that spills out of Greenland.also bring into play the low to the south west potentially a large snow machine if conditions support it
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06z run out to 114 and nothing much has changed as you would expect.
think we can safely say by day 6/7 the second lot of artic air will arrive.
need to watch the low pressure as it develops moving south on day 7/8 shallow feature produced less of a mild sector, or the pattern to back west ward slightly.
as with all output some change will benefit other areas more than others
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1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
The problem is that we’re seeing a north based NAO!
I we at that stage where we create another NAO reference
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1 hour ago, JimBob said:
The next 2 to 3 days look the coldest for the south in the reliable time frame, just looks standard winter fare, even some double figure temperatures creeping in on some models at ten days time!
Day ten double digit temps? Which model is that? Biggest question is it still dry?
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real Greenland high is back, to collapse into scandi-
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here comes that energy as a developing low sinks south, mild export to the west of where it runs maybe a bit like the ECMpattern backs up west a little and low stays shallow should make a good snow maker
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energy still sneaking across the north of Greenland which the GFS has picked up since Friday.
could do with the pattern backing west a little bit snow will come eventually on this run.
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o look that wedge is getting picked up now and moving into the scandi regionthe mild sector will vanish as we count down to the day, I think the pattern is set now
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Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:
Yep, for the Dutch it is a bad run. But, I guess it is the same for most of you too
That mild sector won’t be there by the time we get to t-0
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Due to changes around the globe gaps are opening up in different places
wedge me a kipper
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no deep cold here.almost like it’s not yet a done deal.
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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
Key difference, Iberian heights, it’s always the same, the models can be far too overzealous in removing them at times
Key difference is the lack of Greenland high due to issues over the pole and Greenland the outcome is higher heights over Iberia.
the outcome is not the cause, it’s not the Hadley cell expanding its other factors
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24 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Yeah I was just looking through the individual members, around 10/50 show something decent at day 10 , and by day 12 that drops to about 3/50. This is a real kick in the ****!!! An interesting METO update today, going off the models we see they will have to change their long term to standard Jan type weather, although if they don’t then their supercomputers must be seeing something much better for coldies - and we should expect a flip back to to a better set of ENS later today!!
Met office usually lag when changes like this are picked up, maybe slight changes today followed by a larger one tomorrow depending on future runs.
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the wedge is coming back to life
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The Greenland high is being transposed into a wedge and I’m here for the ride, big snow events up for grabs
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Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:As long as the shortwave to the SW’ doesn’t move NE’.
Yeah the last thing I want is the low to the south west to engage the cold air over central Britain leaving a foot of snow in its wake that’s the last thing I want
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The ECM op was less a wobbly wheel and more a planet full of coldies crying out in one voice only to fall silent. The Jedi must have felt that one and of course the I told you so’s strike back is quickly following on.
as forget start trek analogies go it was a bit ECM Operation.
on to the morning output to see if there has been a shift in any other model.
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this is probably the best run in a while showing longevity-
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Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
I don’t think so, we really wouldn’t see it this far out but the setup is screaming potential for one