frosty ground
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Posts posted by frosty ground
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4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
No I don't. Synoptically it is the cause. It is a symptom of climate warming but that is not a synoptically significant mechanism. The current concern wouldn't be present if there was more room for low pressure to move South in that area.
In this case it is just a symptom of weaker than forecast blocking.
You could have all the room in the world but if a low pressure is spun up like the GFS does then the outcome would be the same. AGW of not.
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Toys and pram day today in the mad thread.
and don’t forget to blame everything on the Iberian high or one shortwave
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43 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Don’t give up hope yet . The shortwave which forms is really the symptom not the cause and is related to the weakness of the blocking in that area .
We still have the ECM to come and that was the first to develop that shortwave and flirt with danger . So particular attention today to its output.
GEM picks up the same developing low.
so much cold air and not enough blocking.
of course that doesn’t mean it correct not yet anyway even if ECM is great or garbage
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1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:
High pressure at 500hpa and 500hpa flow more important.
I know this is your pet theory of blaming everything on the Iberian high but have you not thought that this is a symptom not the cause?
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Rising from the ashes?
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Atlantic gets shoved away easily as John P states above no snow event.
leave a bit of nothingness over the U.K. cold but probably dry, run looks like gradually warming from here on in
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by Day 8 the height over Greenland have drained away leaving up at the mercy of wedges.
the the Atlantic is sliding into southern England, not a fan of south easterly winds but those to the south should be-
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2 minutes ago, IDO said:
GFS 18z follows the script of the 12z at D6-7:
Remarkable consistency for the time frame
slightly lower heights over Greenland with the high shifting slightly west
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by day 6 the Azores low is a little close to the U.K. but appears to be causing no issue.
the cold uppers are waiting to pounce southwards with what looks like a wave developing on a cold front
Where the two air masses meet could create a snow fest
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No major differences by day 5 heights a little higher over the UK which may indicate a slight delay but nothing out of the ordinary
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8 minutes ago, LRD said:
Yeah, as I say, it's nothing to worry about and just reflects what the Met Office are now saying - battleground UK basically. I predict some snow-rain-snow events next week for the south. Basically all snow north of a line from Manchester to Hull
Snow rain snow is basically classic 80’s cold spells, the cold front very rarely stays south of the U.K. and memorable snowy spell don’t al says have the coldest uppers
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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Of course ...
Debate is healthy...
It looks to me like there will be a plunge of cold then a slight relaxation as the trough pivots somewhere south of Scandy..
I think EC picked this up first - I guess we got to hope if and when it drops south it doesn't go south west too much..
It's complex ...
IMBY about 12 miles NE of Manchester, that's too close to call although I've around 600feet so that defo helps...
Depending on the track I wouldn’t worry, looks good to me.
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30 minutes ago, The Northern Ramper said:
There isn’t a southern bias in the nob thread, posters from Kent, Sussex and Essex have told me.
Ha ha
I’d like to see the 6 hour ppn charts for the ECM 168-192 looks snowy
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2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
A large cold clustering within the mean..you would expect it to go down in future runs wouldn't you!?
The average is probably 1.2C higher based on the 6 runs that differ
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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:Take it
Looks good to me
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5 minutes ago, Johnp said:
I have a feeling it’s going to throw out an absolute stinker.
Just as well next weeks weather isn’t decided by tonight’s run's
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7 minutes ago, AO- said:
Control shows exactly what the puttfall might be with such synoptics. CAA creating shortwaves over the Atlantic.
TBH that’s where I thought the GFS was heading
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I knew that Azores low was up to no good, crazy run for those in southern England and south wales.
First run I’ve seen the low interact like this so it’s either a trendsetter or outlier.
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Just now, Captain Shortwave said:
Cold air still on target and the Azores low is fragmenting with a weather front pushing north into southern England. Where these two meet could result in a lot of snow.
Worth noting that the surface high is not present on this run.
yes lower height across the south has created a cut off high over Greenland.
the lack of complexity over Scandinavia loos suspect to me, a large round area of low pressure
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a lot of changes, cold slightly delayed by hours if anything, but the Azores low deciding to make something of itself causing changes all over the shop.
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Just now, Captain Shortwave said:
The GFS has more cold air digging south upstream and the Azores low is being allowed to move which means the Iberian ridge should flatten quicker on this run.
I didn’t see it that way looks to the low will divert the cold to the Atlantic
very interesting viewing either way
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slight shift east for the U.K. high at this point with more shenanigans with the Azores low, the initial northerly won’t be as good as the 06z run by my reckoning.
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Just now, Continental Climate said:
A good chart no doubt but I think many on here will have hoped for better. We need that high to ridge further north both for longevity and severity.
Not sure either depend on the artic high of course it helps had the ICON gone out another 24 hours the deep cold would have been dragged down by the developing low
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the wave should deepen in the next few runs, the high being to far east at this point with a bigger bum keeps it settled over the UK
looks like a timing issue with the wave, mild sector more noticeable but time for this to be closed out by ICON and other models
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The GFS issue isn’t the Azores high, you clearly see the low spin up way before any interaction with the Azores high.
you have shown three charts and claimed they show the same thing they certainly do not, thou the GEM and GFS are at least comparable