frosty ground

January 5

no major differences at this point locally, high a little stronger and the low that’s going to push around the high is further west making it look like the high is struggling but it really isn’t

January 5

last nights GFS with its wobbly wheel OP run which was still a good run

This mornings GFS run with a few bolts coming lose

It’s not negative to show these changes it’s a fact, the ECM op has also picked up on a bit more energy of Greenland hence the block not becoming a true GH.

are these runs fact? Of course the outlook is still very good but it’s not a smooth ride but it rarely is.

there is a big difference in showing something that has changed vs going on about invisible west based -ve NAO. And pointing out all the ways something could go wrong that helps no one.

the GFS has picked up on something and the ECM op has also picked up on something, could be gone by 12z might make more of it but that’s what this thread is for.

January 5

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

How do we define a Greenland high Mike ?

does it have to full on greens/yellows covering the whole country? I’d say that day 10 ec is a decent Greenland height rise centred s Greenland

I would have thought that a sustained block there would suffice for us in any case - even if that means the n and nw of Greenland isn’t covered by a full upper ridge ? (Which might help with fears of west based?)

We call it a glorified Atlantic ridge, energy is still crossing northern Greenland hence the low forming on the north east of the high and looks to move south a bit like the GFS 18z yesterday,

the wobbly wheel has now struck the ECM op and the GFS has lost some bolts

January 4

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Very good ensemble mean so I’m afraid the “winter is over” party has been cancelled.

After two unbelievable GFS det runs it’s not a surprise we’ve had a slightly less good one. Det is also on the milder side of the ensemble pack.

I must have missed the winter is over post?

January 4

I’d bank this run, it will be gone soon enough thou.

end with a screaming easterly and scandi high?

January 4

Just now, Jason M said:

GEFS at 168 our interesting. Quite a few looking to pull the high NW at earlier timeframe. Looks like models might be starting to pick up on something slightly different.

The first trend is to pull the high north westwards earlier, not yet brought the cold in that much quicker that of course can change

January 4

Just now, mbrothers said:

Sorry I’m new to this but are people really worried about a single run at 12 days out?

January snowstorm is worried about every run. Most people like my self are just commenting on what we are seeing.

its an interesting run.

January 4

the low is sent south eastwards probably leading to snow on its leading and trailing edges.

Heights over Greenland have gone but the Atlantic is still blocked with a north west to south east jet.

January 4

this is what the depth of cold and lowering heights over Greenland lead to, not sure how that low to the north west will act, could head south east or bring back the Atlantic

one run but a slight wobble of the wheel.

ensembles and 0z will offer more information

January 4

by day 11 the heights over Greenland are collapsing but as the Atlantic just one high pressure there’s no movement east therefore the U.K. is under a slack cold northerly

January 4

we can all ignore the lowing heights over Greenland but it won’t make them go away.

but by ten the cold has arrived and the Atlantic is dead, no more, any snow will have to come from the east on this run at least

January 4

the above mention 2nd wave of high pressure over eastern Canada.

not sure it will lead to a west based nao but it’s a big difference

January 4

The amount of cold air over Greenland has increased, I sense a wobble of the wheel is occurring

the depth of cold over scandi and Europe is breath taking

January 4

the upper and surface high are both stronger in this run, a low is dropping down its eastern flank

January 4

Here it comes

January 4

the position of our high it’s shape will lead to the flood gates being open so much sooner.
06z below

January 4

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

It won’t get there any faster!

It needs the WAA from the next ridge round west of Greenland, before our high can be sucked up, that is what is driving the timeline.

This run has the high further north and west with low pressure dropping down the east side, the cold is going to get here a few days earlier than the 06z run.

January 4

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I see a different Icon.

Uppers too high midweek and a high that could go anywhere at 180hrs. It's funny we all see charts differently I guess

Run the sequence and tell me which way the high is moving?

What is happening over Greenland

What is happening over Scandinavia?

that sequence tells you the high is moving north west, heights are increasing over Greenland and cold air has flooded our north east.

at no point can we say we don’t know where that high is going, it’s not going south east is it? Or east or south west?

it is funny how we all see the charts.

January 4

Left with a small amounts of energy over Greenland which is melting away quickly 36 hours later the high would have moved north west enough to bring in artic conditions into the UK

January 4

So this one operational run has the U.K. high collapsing into Europe with only the artic high saving the day at day 10 it’s wet and windy with a hint of a colder tomorrow.

is this a wobbly wheel?

on to the 12z

January 4

The only thing I don’t want is more wind and rain, o look another low about to join the party

January 4

The GFS ensembles this morning did go slightly warmer during the change from U.K. high to Greenland high and there was more noise or warmer runs on the 850,s that’s didn’t get any cold in

January 4

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Cooling in situ underneath a cold area of high pressure.

I thought that but it’s quiet a drop and it’s localised

January 4

So at 132 the cold uppers over the north of England have pretty much mixed out but by 138 they intensify and I can’t see why

nothing major just a curiosity

January 3

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Typical from the ECM an absolute mid way point between the two solutions.

That's day 9.

Although there is a bit of a west based setting up the speed at which the PV lobe moves South out of the Arctic 192H to 216H is likely providing the forcing needed to overcome this, and still great retrogression. So on balance 2 positives and 1 negative.

West based setup ….. seriously, absolutely zero hint of it in that chart

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