[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

It's as if something has switched off the atlantic in about a weeks time since that ecm 12z. Either something is afoot at relatively short notice or it's another false dawn. 

Or it’s been on the cards for a while well advertised by the ensembles as a probable outcome I should have added

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

13 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes 90% support for cold at day 7 would equate to 50% or so confidence when you factor in systematic uncertainty associated with cold patterns in the UK plus the lead time involved. Even 100% support would only equate to 60-70% confidence.

But I don’t remember seeing anything like a 90% support at day 7. Again I’d love to see the charts that back that up.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Look at this though, hypothetically would only take a few subtle touches for this slider to bring widespread snow to some areas. I've seen it many times locally over the last 10 years.

A bit like this

usual carvers apply

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Never said prolonged, it was near full house support with maybe 50% confidence for a short northerly spell.

So a near certain northerly with 50% support could early be described as a 50% near certain chance of no northerly .

or if we read the ensembles correctly we could deduce there was a chance of something and there still is.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

We've seen a full house collapse of the initial expected cold which is what I would call bad.

Have we, I haven’t seen any real support for a prolonged cold spell, only 2-5 day attempt which still might happened, thou the ensembles show it being limited to around two days.

can you share some of these charts that have show a full house? 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Like I said delayed from the GFS 12z 

pretty obvious it was heading that way 

just to add that the the ensembles show a 48 cold snap around Christmas, this run fits that. Of course it’s 50/50 or coin flip if that happens.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's the fact that it's over Iberia which is very synoptically significant though.

Had it been exclusivsly over the Azores with lower pressure over Iberia, the pressure setup would have better allowed for cold into the UK. Look at this example with pressure high over the Azores and lower over Iberia.

Just have to disagree I’m afraid the centre of both the upper and surface pressure is the Azores, pressure being high over Iberia as part of the same cell doesn’t change that. Facts aren’t debatable I’m afraid.

 

 

looks like a delay on the GFS not really icon 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

That's an impressive Iberian high.

Very impressive considering it’s centred over the Azores.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, BartyHater said:

At that range a 400-500 margin of error N-S is very reasonable, no one is suggesting it would be in that precise position.

Not sure we need to worry about rainfall train with a margin of error the size of the U.K. when the starting point is already to the south then? Yiu did bring it up BTW I was just analysing what you said.

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Aprage more  06z GFS which has been completely forgotten about because the 12z  ICON

Winter is over based on the icon.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, BartyHater said:

Really hope ICON is wrong with this, because that’s one ugly looking rain train extending a couple of thousand miles to our SW by 180. 
If we end up under that bad boy, significant flooding could be a real risk between Xmas and NY.

Not sure we need to worry about rain fall over the channel, pretty wet place to begin with.

as the boundary is sinking south all the whip up until 180 hours I doubt all that in the mid Atlantic would make it to the U.K.  anyway.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

GFS 06z showing pretty much what it’s been showing for the last week or so a cold Xmas couple of days with the possibility of a little snow in favoured places.

Changes with the 0z are  not worth pointing out no major changes

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

53 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I think the chase for anything prolonged from this is gone now. Just looks like a brief toppler before mild conditions quickly return.

Hasn’t it been like that since day the first of December, nothing has shown anything other than 2-5 day cold spell, and we can sadly say it’s probably going to be a 2 day cold spell

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Worst run ever*

* Comic book guy

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Game on

Game was never off.

Its the kind of run that could create large snowfalls across the boundary 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

A lot of premature comments, what is wrong with this???     

ECM clearly showing a boundary across the UK  moving north and south 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

It really isn't....the 00 had cold to the N primed to head S, this run doesn't even have that. Calling it pants is probably a compliment.

you have a point I don’t know where all the cold air to the north is

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Compared to the 0z it’s an improvement 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah here's the 06Z vs 12Z. Quite clearly way East.

ECM is massively different , then again the inter run variance is in line with all the ensembles

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFS12Z has moved to UKMO12Z/ECM.

Has it? 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Coming in quicker this run…

That’s going to be some cold front sweeping through the U.K. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Like the earlier ICON the low will slide and if your on the north east side you could get significant snow

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

That's just a modified Bartlett.

Well if it’s modified it isn’t what it was originally therefore not a Bartlett, but it’s not a modified one either.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

im looking for something like this happening next week, it All depends on the shape of the high and developing low but if the stars align places to the north east of the runner could see disruptive snow

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS is dire . And the longer it takes for the trough to dig south the more likely that doesn’t happen .

Without any real forcing from the nw it’s a hard slog to get that south . 

The UKMO looks better at day 6 . Waiting for the day 7 which must surely look better than the GFS.

Not sure how you get to it’s dire, the solution is slower but also colder 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

The model thread is probably the worst I’ve seen it on here and even going back the my days on TWO. 
 

Bias I can live with but the shear amount of factually incorrect posts is laughable, I’m not talking forecasts I’m talking about posting a chart then saying it shows something it doesn’t. Usually followed up by I’m entitled to my opinion, you can have an opinion but you can’t have a version of fact.

also if I see the words barty again for a chart that is t showing one I’ll probably explode.

need to learn how to block people again.

next two weeks looks like a wild ride and if your on the northern side of the jet you 

might cop a load of snow