frosty ground
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Posts posted by frosty ground
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2 minutes ago, Purga said:
Don't bin your white Christmas bets quite yet folks
to be fair the ENS have shown a move to colder solutions this morning.
Fingers crossed.
Just about to post the same.......
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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
All academic at this range of course but the max temps look too high for the 850s?
Your seeing a transition so yes the Max will be that high..... all academic at this range thou
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22 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
It will be a very green Christmas with a hint of yellow as the daffs flourish in the balmy warmth if the Ecm 00z verifies..ho ho ho I can't resist a bit of (Off Topic Nonsense) gallows humor after seeing the 00z runs.
So if the ECM OP Verifies as is.
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Looking at the GFS and the Day 10 period, a northerly has been modeled to go into Western europe (To our East) over the last two days this has been moved back west, The Control show this backed up even more and the Northerly affecting the UK (if only for a day)>
This is pretty reminiscent of how the current cold spell unfolded in the models, with the pattern backing up and the Atlantic being over played. It was only 3 weeks ago people where bemoaning the end of December before the forecast Zonal period would end (And we know how that turned out).
Might go to the bookies and put a bet on a white Christmas.....-
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Snowing here.... shouldnt last long but thats another day of falling snow
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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
It appears the GEFS 6z mean could have over egged the high pressure Influence next week. It sounds more generally unsettled (zonal) with spells of wet and windy weather, especially further NW...that applies to the christmas / new year period too with a mixture of mild / cold zonality.
What are you basing that on Frosty? You are referring to the Met Office forecast I see, I'm slight confused on what data you are validating one Forecast other the other considering the time period in question has yet to happen? I am even more confused when you consider only a few updates ago the Mets outlook as well as the other general Model output has been for a mixture of Cold/Mild output.
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Wednesday Evening is looking rather tasty for my location at least with a couple of inches (5cm) of snow possible.
It has been showing up on the Met Office App for a few days and there is now talk about it in the National Forecasters.-
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So we find ourselves back to where we was a few weeks ago when the models then as now started to show a westerly regime and some show some pretty mild weather, of course this is leading to a few posters to once again start worrying about the next 4 weeks, soon to be 6 weeks then Winter will be over ETC. I suspect we will see a repeat of what we have just had.
Snow a possibility for some Wednesday night after a brief warm up during wednesday and then another northerly shot there after.-
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This place looks more like a nursery every day.....
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2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:
Massive shift back to zonal by weekend
Lol
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The 18z was initiaed at 18z surprisingly if it's further north now it wouldn' be picked up on any model ubtill the 00z runs
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A small straw to clutch the radar return over Ireland further north than the GFS? That's one way to track it at least
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Looking at the radar more showers over southport so northern parts of Greater Manchester should see some activity later
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5:30 foreast just showed the same Amber area as @Backtrack post....
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2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:
Selfishly IMBY looks great. Even if I don’t get pasted it’s a half hour drive to Llangollen, where I’ll go sledging. Winner.
Thats hot off the press btw
That looks like yesterday's Amber warning area
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5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:
Still would not rule out some snow for those further inland tonight as the winds drop off and natural cooling takes places, its just a question whether the showers die out and can penetrate far enough inland.
As for tomorrow's event, just wait and see, i still be surprised if places like Manchester and Merseyside miss out. I think anyone north of Preston are out of it now but still some time for some wiggle room in this imo.
Manchester will miss out if the wind is south of east.... inteestingly for my locations the wind is from the east.
It's radar watching time now.... I've seen fronts move way north and south of forecast so anything could happen.
Snowing now... lightly but gonna get heavy
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Looks like showers are coming from the wnw direction and the West.. ..
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Temp still around 0 here more showers heading this way around 2cm of snow on ground
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3 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:
MWIS: Peak District forecast for tomorrow..
Snow, widely incessant, giving whiteout, particularly Peak District.
Peak District and north to Skipton: Incessant snow, whiteout or near whiteout; snow lying into valleys. Yorkshire Dales NP: Ranging from intermittent snow, not heavy, north of about Ingleborough area to constant, sometimes heavy snow progressively southwards. Near whiteout.
Isn't Ingleborough quite far north....?
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2 hours ago, karyo said:
I am not upset frosty, I could see this happening already from yesterday when everything started adjusting southwards. I posted the precipitation charts to back up what I was saying. So no surprises here.
If you want to take their warnings as a gospel go ahead and do it.
They don't update warning every two minutes because that would lessen the impact. You do release we are still under a yellow warning right?
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6 minutes ago, karyo said:
I think the problem is that they release warnings at the drop of a hat. Hard to take them seriously anymore.
Sorry but posts like this are just nonsense..... the met has to warn that disruptive weather is possible. Local authorities need time to prep for major events and would rather be prepared than trying to scramble once the snow falls.
If your upset i suggest you take a bit of time away from the forum. It' no fun reading the constant moaning.
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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
If we dont start to see a streamer picking up soon think im just gona accept its another bust
Give it a few hour's.... lots of showers of IOM heading this way. Just need a bit of luck to get under a streamer
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Amber warning has shifted south still in the yellow zone
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Looks more westerly now
North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Looks further South than originally forecast.