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frosty ground

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Posts posted by frosty ground

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, karyo said:

    It looks decently wintry. However, it is worrying that the ECM does not dig the trough southeastwards and the Azores high extends its influence to Iberia. Not what coldies want to see. Yesterday's 12z ICON was the first to show this and now the ECM is showing too. 

    Looks like it has a lot of backing too

    EDM1-120.GIF?10-12

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Ecm 00z looks quite wintry next week, especially further north and I'm sure there would be significant amounts of snow further north with a strong blast of cold zonality..:)

    The ECM for the last two runs haven't been that good, The day 5 Chart is showing a temporarily South Westerlies and the Cold Zonality is still out at day 6.

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    The Easterly is not gong to happen and though the outlook is not likely to be mild, there will be little wintry weather in the offing as exemplified by tonight's ECM (a largely westerly flow once the Atlantic breaks through).

    In short, the underwhelming output continues.  Once again, we are looking at more medium term signals such as the Stratosphere to save this winter.

    Best ignore all other ouput for that..... the ECM is npt as cold but i think we should wait till we see its ensembles

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

    I still think that high pressure is playing for suckers. No evidence the NWly is on shaky ground based on that GFS 12z run because it is still modelled to happen. What's more UKMO also models for it as well.

     

    The block is certainly playing hardball but as you say no model shows the block standing up to the Atlantic beyond day 5

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 08/01/2018 at 12:28, Summer Sun said:

    UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Jan 2018 to Monday 22 Jan 2018:

    On Saturday outbreaks of rain move eastwards, perhaps bringing some hill snow across parts of Scotland and the Pennines. It may brighten up in the west late in the day, with the chance of a few showers. Sunday sees further showers or longer spells of heavy rain with a risk of hill snow, and this unsettled theme continues through the rest of the period. There will be some brighter, showery interludes between the spells of rain, with a low probability mid-week of generally colder and drier weather in places. Often windy, with gales or severe gales in places, especially in the north and west. Temperatures most likely to be close to or a little below normal for mid January.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-07

    Posted Yesterday

    1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

    UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Jan 2018 to Monday 22 Jan 2018:

    On Saturday outbreaks of rain move eastwards, perhaps bringing some hill snow across parts of Scotland and the Pennines. It may brighten up in the west late in the day, with the chance of a few showers. Sunday sees further showers or longer spells of heavy rain with a risk of hill snow, and this unsettled theme continues through the rest of the period. There will be some brighter, showery interludes between the spells of rain, with a low probability mid-week of generally colder and drier weather in places. Often windy, with gales or severe gales in places, especially in the north and west. Temperatures most likely to be close to or a little below normal for mid January.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-07

    Posted today

    Gavin posted yesterday by mistake.... My update is the most uptodate. 

    Easy way to spot it is by looking at the starting day....... 5 days ends saturday so todays update should start Sunday!

    • Thanks 1

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Thats last nights update- Gavin D has posted todays :)

    Has he???? Gavin starts on Saturday

    Quote

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

    UK Outlook for Sunday 14 Jan 2018 to Tuesday 23 Jan 2018:

    Sunday will probably be rather cloudy for most with some outbreaks of light rain and drizzle. There may be some brighter spells before a band of heavy rain and gales arrive from the west, bringing some hill snow in the north, but not reaching the southeast until the end of the day. Showery conditions will follow from the west early next week with showers turning wintry in places. For the rest of the period the unsettled weather continues, with further showers or longer spells of heavy rain, and with snow at times especially in the north, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. Often windy, with gales or severe gales in places, especially in the northwest. Temperatures overall rather cold with quite frequent overnight frosts, but with brief milder spells at times.

     

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes mate im pretty underwhelmed if i were to be honest.

    Main emphasis on wind and rain.

    Guess we will have to keep an eye on the updates but i feel a bit deflated reading that today..

    That forecast looks like a duplicate of the operations we have been seeing.

    Showery conditions will follow from the west early next week with showers turning wintry in places.

    gfs-0-168.png?6gfs-2-168.png?6

    For the rest of the period the unsettled weather continues, with further showers or longer spells of heavy rain, and with snow at times especially in the north, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes.

    gfs-2-204.png?6gfs-2-240.png?6

    First chart shows a front bring rain to the south more wintry up north, The second shows the wintry showers heading south again.

    graphe6_1000_242_28___.gifTemperatures overall rather cold with quite frequent overnight frosts, but with brief milder spells at times.
    Ensembles from the north West

     

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, shaky said:

    My god that looks brilliant first up but ot just struggles to undercut from there over the last few runs!!lets see what this run brings!

    icon-0-114.png?08-12

    no issue on this run, but this is the ICON so how much weight this is given is well up to those with more knowledge.

    for fun thou the 06 bettered the 0z and the 12z is bettering the 06z.... Upgrades all the way :rofl:

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by frosty ground

    The Block to the East is causing all kinds of problems, it isn't quite up to pushing back the Atlantics and neither is it surrendering.

    A Cold North West to South East progression is being put back all the time. We should be looking at some Cold Zonality later this week but this is now past the weekend.

    The 06z has the cold pool over central Eastern Europe gfs-1-168.png?6rather than the south East (Greece)gfs-1-174.png again there was no cold pool forecast over Europe (At least with a block in place and no top up from the North.)

    If as forcast the Jet quietens down for a few days with the Jet still anglened NW/SE and the Block to the east is still hanging around the chances of a major snowfall over some part of the UK must be high, especially as the Cold over Europe is still being modelled all over the place.

     

     

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, comet said:

    At least some good may come out of all this and that being that posters might stop trawling out the lesser models like um GEM perhaps. Although to be fair its been no worse than the ecm. I suppose it also means that the ecm op run has not lost it bias for amplification.

    No GFS either then..... or why not ban all model output past day 5.

    Or maybe just maybe people can use this thread to discuss model output without being sniped at by lesser contributors because afterall thats what this threaf is for right.

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    We need a bit of clarity here - the models show a bit of a stand off, but the upper air temps to begin with are way high. So that could mean surface cold but it won’t mean any snowfall once fronts try and make progress from the west 

    if they do, then ironically they bring some colder upper air with them than the continental flow which could then make the situation more conducive to some snowfall if the block fights back and further attempts from the west/southwest ensue. 

    We also have ec being quite progressive once the Atlantic makes headway east of the meridian although there remains the lesser chance that the second wave of the Atlantic could head more se than the first

    So if the Upper flow is of the atlantic with Sub zero 850's (say -2) but the surface feed is still of Europe, those conditions could be conducive to Snow.

    So if I am getting this right, as low 850 move in of the Atlantic you would get rain turning to snow from the west?

    This is of course without taking all the other parameters into consideration.

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